$167,418 Bet On US-Iran Ceasefire Happening, Say Whales

Resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran reach an official, publicly announced, and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the specified date and time. Resolves "No" if no such official agreement is reached by the deadline.

The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on whether the agreement is reached by this date, even if the ceasefire officially takes effect later.

The resolution will primarily be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. An overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.

Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, humanitarian pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count as an official ceasefire. A broader peace deal qualifies only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement.

A common misunderstanding is that informal agreements or unilateral pauses in hostilities would count, but they explicitly do not. Another mistake is thinking the ceasefire itself must take effect by the deadline, when only the agreement needs to be reached.