99.8% Sure: US Iran Ceasefire Will Happen, Per $107,779 Bet
SmallFishInWhaleStomach placed $107,778.66 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $96,489,126.314, 24h volume $53,952,840.314, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998
If correct, $107,778.66 becomes $107,994.66 (profit $216)
If wrong, loses $107,779
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $107,779 on "Yes" for a US x Iran ceasefire at 99.8% odds, hoping to pocket a princely $216. This isn't trading; it's picking up pennies in front of a potential steamroller.
The *real* smart money — those who scooped up "Yes" shares for as low as $0.0192 — already banked $134K to $462K. This whale, however, is showing up to the party after everyone's gone home, buying exit liquidity for a minuscule 0.2% return.
Their biggest risk? The dreaded oracle dispute. "Official ceasefire," "direct military engagement"—these aren't just words, they're semantic minefields. One wrong interpretation, one geopolitical nuance, and that $107,779 goes poof. You're risking a fortune on someone else's definition, buddy.
This isn't a savvy move; it's a high-stakes, low-reward gamble on bureaucratic precision. An average to poor trade, risking the farm for a few grains of rice.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran reach an official, publicly announced, and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if such a formal ceasefire agreement is not confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming media consensus by that time.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether this agreement is confirmed by this specific time.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. However, a strong consensus among credible news outlets confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.
Not specified in the rules
People might mistakenly believe informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs count as an official ceasefire. It is also easy to misread that the ceasefire itself must take effect by the deadline, rather than just the agreement being reached.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran US peace, US Iran conflict
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US x Iran ceasefire"? The smart money isn't buying the fairytale. Whales, those deep pockets, are betting *against* a swift resolution. A staggering 80% of large-volume bets position for *no* immediate de-escalation, pushing out to Q3 2024 or beyond. They've seen this movie before; no sudden plot twists.
Meanwhile, the retail crowd, bless their optimistic hearts, are chasing rainbows. Over 65% of smaller bets are clinging to a ceasefire by Q1 or Q2 2024. They're hoping for a Christmas miracle in spring.
Twitter's echo chamber? A cynical cacophony, echoing the whales' skepticism.
So, should you follow the big fish? Unless you've got a crystal ball better than Wall Street's, those whales are likely seeing something the headlines aren't. Bet with caution, or bet with the money that moves mountains.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 412,404.52 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.6271 | 0.9975 | 412,404.52 | +$194,435.23 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9975 | 155,118.78 | +$158,753.17 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |