A $110,778 Bet Says Yes to US x Iran Ceasefire Deal Soon
Dropper placed $110,777.67 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $90,084,423.711, 24h volume $49,869,394.149, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997
If correct, $110,777.67 becomes $111,110.67 (profit $333)
If wrong, loses $110,778
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just dropped $110,778 on a US-Iran ceasefire at 99.7% odds, hoping to snag a pathetic $333.
This isn't trading. It's buying a lottery ticket where the prize is a stale donut, risking a literal house for pocket change.
The market's already at 99.7%. Smart money *already* bought low, pocketing hundreds of thousands.
This latecomer? He’s just providing exit liquidity for them, playing the fool.
He's taking all the tail risk for a negative expected value of -$0.34.
And that "direct military engagement" clause? A semantic landmine.
One oracle wobble, and his $110,778 vanishes faster than my patience for bad trades.
This isn't picking up pennies. It's diving for a nickel in a shark tank.
A masterclass in how *not* to trade.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the deadline, with both governments publicly confirming it or major news outlets widely reporting it. It resolves "No" if such a formal, mutually agreed ceasefire is not announced by the specified time.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this deadline to determine if the condition was met.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official public statements from the US and Iranian governments. However, a widespread agreement among credible news sources confirming the ceasefire will also suffice.
Informal agreements, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks will not count as a ceasefire, and a broader peace deal only qualifies if it explicitly includes a dated commitment to stop fighting. The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect later.
People might mistakenly think informal agreements, unilateral pauses, or broader peace deals without a clear, dated commitment to stop fighting would count. It's also easy to misread that the ceasefire itself must take effect by the deadline, rather than just the agreement being reached.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US x Iran ceasefire by...?" The whales are shouting "not so fast!" While Twitter's timeline echoes with wishful thinking and hot takes, the smart money isn't buying the peace dividend.
They're betting hard against an imminent ceasefire. Geopolitical chess, not checkers. The big players see the board, not just the pawn moves. Their conviction? A paltry 15% chance for a quick resolution. This isn't just skepticism; it's a cold, hard bet on continued friction.
General sentiment? A muddled mess. More noise than signal. But whales? They speak with their wallets. When they put their chips down like this, it's a red flag. Follow the money, not the memes. Bet against the ceasefire, or sit this one out. The smart play is with the giants.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 412,404.52 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.6271 | 0.9955 | 412,404.52 | +$193,610.42 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9955 | 155,118.78 | +$158,442.93 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |