Trade Report : 

US Forces Enter Iran? $199,600 Bet on Polymarket Says No Way

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
scout   (0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3)
PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?
$199,600
Trade Amount
SELL Yes
Trade Side
0.998
Entry Price
Time

scout placed $199,600 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $178,226,488.187, 24h volume $67,560,039.144, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

No
0.1%
Yes
99.9%

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Collecting...

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume
$178,226,488.187
24h Volume
$67,560,039.144
Heat
Very Hot
End Date
Not specified
Created
2026-01-11
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves to "No" if this condition is not met, meaning no such entry occurs or the entry is not deliberate, not for operational purposes, or not by active military personnel.

Timeline

The key timeline is the deadline, which is the "listed date (ET)" by which the physical entry must occur for the market to resolve "Yes".

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible news reports and other reliable information sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter:

Relevant tweets: 0

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1No0.00200.00150+$751,924.09
20x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9dYes0.63450.99850+$290,215.46
30x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3Yes0.61960.9985620,990.26+$235,234.21
40xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35No0.00700.00150+$58,641.17
50x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708Yes0.64210.9985138,947.76+$50,499.21
60x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3Yes0.78050.9985175,760.61+$48,041.97
70xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14Yes0.67160.99850+$42,372.6
80xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7Yes0.62250.99850.01+$41,966.64
90x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947Yes0.54080.99850+$39,847.37
100x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848Yes0.59860.99850+$35,796.86
US x Iran Ceasefire? $236,992 Bet Says YES on Polymarket
$167,418 Bet On US-Iran Ceasefire Happening, Say Whales