$111,381 Against US Entering Iran — Polymarket Whale
dumbfuq-p0Iycantchangepfp placed $111,380.7 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $259,371,407.217, 24h volume $107,019,747.644, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998
If correct, $111,380.7 becomes $111,603.7 (profit $223)
If wrong, loses $111,381
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
"US forces enter Iran: Yes" sits at 99.8%. Our whale just *sold* $111,381 of "Yes."
This isn't a contrarian play; it's a victory lap. They’re giving up a measly $223, a 0.2% final yield, to instantly free up six figures. Chasing that last nickel is for the plebs.
Why? Capital efficiency, darling. $111,381 isn't "dead equity" waiting for an Oracle to wake up. It’s ready to hunt fresh prey. Plus, they’re bailing on that sneaky "military vs. intelligence" resolution clause, paying a tiny premium to avoid a black swan. Smart.
With $107M in 24-hour volume, this exit is smooth as silk. Selling into retail euphoria? Textbook. This whale isn't just winning; they're teaching a masterclass in risk management. Don't hate the player, hate your own illiquid portfolio. *Chef's kiss.*
Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
Resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational reasons by the listed date. It resolves "No" if this specific type of entry does not occur, excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, or diplomatic personnel.
The market's outcome is determined by events that happen by a specific listed date, observed in Eastern Time (ET).
The final outcome will be decided based on what a majority of trustworthy news reports confirm.
Not specified in the rules.
A common misunderstanding could be thinking that any US military presence, accidental entry, or entry by non-active military personnel like contractors or diplomats would qualify.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US troops Iran
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The smart money isn't just sniffing the air; they're betting the farm on *no* boots on the ground in Iran, not anytime soon. Whales are pouring capital into "Later" or "Never," treating any imminent invasion chatter like a bad meme – fleeting and ultimately forgettable.
While Twitter echoes with the usual war drum beats and armchair generals predicting the next "shock and awe," the real players are hedging against the hype. Don't be the useful idiot caught in the crossfire of online hysteria.
The big boys are telling you: this isn't the hill to die on. Follow the money. Fade the noise.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 121,377.48 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1 | No | 0.0010 | 0.0015 | 0 | +$890,534.81 |
| 2 | 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d | Yes | 0.6345 | 0.9985 | 0 | +$290,215.46 |
| 3 | 0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3 | Yes | 0.6196 | 0.9985 | 0.01 | +$234,923.72 |
| 4 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | No | 0.0070 | 0.0015 | 0 | +$58,641.17 |
| 5 | 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708 | Yes | 0.6421 | 0.9985 | 116,947.76 | +$50,488.21 |
| 6 | 0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3 | Yes | 0.7805 | 0.9985 | 121,377.48 | +$48,014.77 |
| 7 | 0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14 | Yes | 0.6716 | 0.9985 | 0 | +$42,372.6 |
| 8 | 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7 | Yes | 0.6225 | 0.9985 | 0.01 | +$41,966.64 |
| 9 | 0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947 | Yes | 0.5408 | 0.9985 | 0 | +$39,847.37 |
| 10 | 0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848 | Yes | 0.5986 | 0.9985 | 0 | +$35,796.86 |