Trade Report :

US x Iran Ceasefire? $236,992 Bet Says YES on Polymarket

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

scout (0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3)

PolyMarket : US x Iran ceasefire by...?

$236,991.86

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.997

Entry Price

2026-04-07 21:08:09 ET

Time

scout placed $236,991.86 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $40,916,634.151, 24h volume $24,248,842.555, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997

Yes odds at 0.997, market gives 99.7% chance

0.8%

Yes

99.3%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $236,991.86 becomes $237,704.86 (profit $713)
If wrong, loses $236,992

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just dropped $236,992 on a US x Iran ceasefire 'Yes' at 99.7%, aiming for a princely $713 profit. This isn't trading; it's a high-stakes game of 'picking up pennies in front of a steamroller' with a quarter-million dollar principal.

The market implies 99.7% certainty? Get real. Iran's launching missiles *simultaneously* with the supposed "ceasefire," and the US is denying *everything*. That's not a 0.3% tail risk; that's a whole damn dragon tail wrapped around the market.

Early whales bought 'Yes' for cents, now sitting on six-figure profits. This latecomer? They're providing exit liquidity, essentially buying champagne for the smart money. It's like showing up to the party after everyone's left, only to find the bouncer demanding your house keys.

This isn't smart money. It's money so bored it's actively seeking existential dread. A catastrophic misallocation. Enjoy your $713, if the world doesn't implode first.

Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →

Total Volume

$40,916,634.151

24h Volume

$24,248,842.555

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-02-28

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran reach an official, publicly announced, and mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if no such agreement is officially confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming media consensus by that time.

Timeline

The deadline for the ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on when the agreement is reached, not when the ceasefire itself takes effect.

Source

The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. An overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also be sufficient for resolution.

Special Cases

Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, humanitarian pauses, or agreements for future negotiations without an explicit commitment to stop fighting will not count. Broader peace deals only qualify if they include a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is confusing an agreement being reached with the ceasefire actually taking effect, as only the former matters for resolution. People might also misinterpret informal understandings or temporary pauses as official ceasefire agreements, which they are not.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, Iran ceasefire

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Trump just announced a "ceasefire," and Wall Street fell for it like a toddler for candy. Oil plummeted 15%, GIFT NIFTY skyrocketed 3.1%. Don't be a rube. This "deal" is the Emperor's New Clothes of diplomacy.

Reports confirm Iranian missiles *still* struck Israel and UAE *after* the big announcement. Iran's Foreign Minister offers a conditional "maybe," while others report outright rejection. The US says their ceasefire only starts *if* Iran opens Hormuz. That's not a ceasefire; it's a negotiation with active missile fire.

This is a textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news" trap. The market bought the headline, not the kinetic reality. "No" shares on this ceasefire are criminally undervalued. If the rockets keep flying, crude will reverse harder than a Tesla short. Bet against the hype.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,024,304 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Israel has agreed to the US and Iran's 2-week ceasefire, as reported by CNN.

JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel agrees to US and Iran's 2-week ceasefire, CNN reports.

155,829 views258 rt2,121 likesER:0.0036RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WarMonitor3verified1,088,100 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

China was involved in a last-minute intervention to facilitate Iran's agreement to the US ceasefire deal, according to NYT.

China was part of last minute intervention to get Iran to agree to US ceasefire deal-NYT

132,447 views212 rt1,817 likesER:0.0056RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@shail_bhatnagar127,569 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

Market analysis suggests a US-Israel-Iran ceasefire is taking effect, leading to a 3.1% rise in GIFT NIFTY and immediate opening of Hormuz.

TALE OF TWO CHARTS GIFT NIFTY: up 3.1%; likely we will see a TREND DAY Gap up and then higher highs as US-Israel-Iran ceasefire takes effect Hormuz opens immediately OIL: MURBAN Dubai crude closest to Indian basket, down 18% @szarabi @business_today @yatinmota @SumitResearch https://t.co/tBuhISrfeR

19 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,527,158 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Multiple reports from AP, NYT, and others confirm a 2-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel, including Israel halting strikes.

@financial_guru8 @KobeissiLetter According to multiple reports from AP, NYT, and others, yes—the 2-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel includes Israel halting strikes and fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as part of the broader de-escalation pushed by mediators like Pakistan's PM. It's tied to Iran's 10-point plan and Strait of Hormuz reopening for talks toward lasting peace.

27 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@unusual_whalesverified3,553,495 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Pakistan Prime Minister states that Iran and US, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon.

Pakistan Prime Minister: Iran and US along with their allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere

2,368 views11 rt49 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DDNewsliveverified3,719,725 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US President Donald Trump announced a two-week double-sided ceasefire, suspending bombing on Iran and stating Iran's 10-point proposal was workable.

US President #DonaldTrump has suspended the "bombing and attack" campaign on #Iran, announcing a two-week double-sided ceasefire and saying that the 10-point proposal from Iran was workable. https://t.co/wPprPeJXbI

49 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,908,898 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US oil prices crashed over 15% following the ceasefire with Iran.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US oil prices crash over 15% following ceasefire with Iran. https://t.co/ENgmnjdeKC

207,675 views360 rt2,448 likesER:0.0025RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,461 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif confirmed a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US and allies, covering 'Lebanon and elsewhere', with Friday talks scheduled.

BREAKING: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif has said the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, along with their allies, includes 'Lebanon and elsewhere', as he confirms Friday talks. https://t.co/7bfkV7NfYe

29,870 views205 rt696 likesER:0.0019RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,461 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iranian FM Araghchi states Iran agrees to the two-week ceasefire with the US if attacks against Iran are halted.

FM Araghchi says ‘if attacks against Iran are halted,’ then the country agrees to the terms of the two‑week ceasefire with the US, as announced by President Trump. Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall explains Tehran’s response and how the Strait of Hormuz would be opened under the deal. https://t.co/HjMyw1ws0s

20,886 views41 rt107 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,461 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Crude oil prices plunged on news of a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.

BREAKING: Crude oil prices plunge on news of ceasefire deal between US and Iran 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/eCeDgm6UXO https://t.co/I85K1vwLXi

23,937 views40 rt128 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (2)

KOL@grokverified8,527,158 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The US-Israel coalition has the upper hand after 5+ weeks of strikes degrading Iran's military capabilities.

@Kong_Kinky1 @mattvanswol @ballen_50 @Ilhan The US-Israel coalition has the upper hand right now. After 5+ weeks of strikes that degraded Iran's missile sites, air defenses, leadership (including Khamenei), and key infrastructure, Iran agreed to a 2-week ceasefire yesterday. Key concession: reopening the Strait of Hormuz for oil traffic, which they had blocked in retaliation. Trump's deadline ...

9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,527,158 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Multiple sources, including Trump's Truth Social, Al Jazeera, NPR, Politico, and Israel Hayom, indicate Trump has not surrendered to Iran or given in to all their demands.

@IM_EROS_ @ianmiles No, Trump has not surrendered to Iran or given in to all their demands. Latest updates from multiple sources (Trump's Truth Social, Al Jazeera, NPR, Politico, Israel Hayom): He announced a 2-week ceasefire yesterday, pausing US strikes if Iran allows safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under coordinated military management—not permanent Iranian control. Iran's claims of ...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@kefa_yhwhrulz354 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran and US agree to a conditional two-week ceasefire and opening of the Hormuz strait, according to BBC News.

Iran and US agree to conditional two-week ceasefire and opening of Hormuz strait after Trump's threat - follow live - BBC News https://t.co/fkbTUvaPEw

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@jackallancoachverified1,869 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Pakistan Prime Minister states that Iran and US, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon.

Breaking News 🚨 Pakistan Prime Minister: Iran and US along with their allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GlobalTelevsion908 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The United States denies accepting Iran's 10-point plan but has agreed to a two-week ceasefire and will continue negotiations.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 United States says reports claiming it accepted Iran's 10-point plan are false. The US has agreed to a two-week ceasefire and will continue negotiations with Iran in an effort to permanently end the war.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@iamprashant1807verified2,288 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Fresh Iranian missile sirens are reported across Israel minutes after the US and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire.

#BREAKING: Fresh Iranian Missile Sirens across Israel right now, minutes after US and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire.

5 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ChiTribBiz7,185 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Oil prices plunged and US stock futures jumped following the agreement of a 2-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Oil prices plunge and US stock futures jump as US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire https://t.co/rvrzpykJB4

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TheFixxserverified1,205 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Iran reportedly broke the ceasefire by sending missiles into Israel.

So, Iran already broke ceasefire and sent missiles into Israel. It's enough with this bullshit already! Just blast them already! I mean, when will the US learn with Iran?!?! IT'S BEEN 47 FUCKING YEARS OF THE SAME SHIT!!!!

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@reemrednaV_ssoR13,293 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral

The tweet questions the logic of the US demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire, given it was open before US actions.

The strait of hormuz was open for business before the US hit Iran. Now the US wants a ceasefire and for Iran to open the strait. Do you not see the stupidity of this?

10 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@jorgewheelockverified812 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral

The temporary ceasefire is criticized as Iran suspended its leverage while the US maintained superiority.

@MarioNawfal Total imbecile. It is a temporary ceasefire in which Iran suspended its only leverage and the US has not given up its superiority.

23 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@rev_joe_blank427 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The ceasefire is questioned to be solely between the US and Iran, excluding Israel.

@RT_com The ceasefire was between the US and Iran, right? I didn't see mention of Israel in those statements. They're going to have to solve this part on their own, I guess.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@eljardiin12 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The ceasefire is believed to be between the US and Iran, with Israel reportedly still bombing.

@VividProwess I think the ceasefire was between us and Iran. Israel still bombing

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95	Yes	0.0276	0.9965	477,543.66	+$462,672
2	0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c	Yes	0.0192	0.9965	355,555.18	+$347,479.81
3	0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a	Yes	0.0385	0.9965	0.01	+$200,524.56
4	0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d	Yes	0.0369	0.9965	0.01	+$195,182.12
5	0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	Yes	0.2826	0.9965	251,472.76	+$193,260.81
6	0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe	Yes	0.0700	0.9965	0	+$176,095.8
7	0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421	Yes	0.0671	0.9965	155,118.78	+$158,598.05
8	0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041	Yes	0.1029	0.9965	174,764.3	+$156,161.51
9	0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010	Yes	0.0633	0.9965	0	+$148,855.52
10	0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9	Yes	0.0687	0.9965	0.01	+$134,641.29