Trade Report :

Why someone bet $139,803 on a US-Iran ceasefire

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

tourists (0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f)

PolyMarket : US x Iran ceasefire by...?

$139,802.77

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.99

Entry Price

2026-04-07 20:58:59 ET

Time

tourists placed $139,802.77 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.99 (market gives 99.0% probability). Total market volume $17,033,850.749, 24h volume $3,442,862.485, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.99

Yes odds at 0.99, market gives 99.0% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.6%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $139,802.77 becomes $141,214.77 (profit $1,412)
If wrong, loses $139,803

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just spent $139,803 BUYING "Yes" on a US x Iran ceasefire at 99.6%. Their profit? A princely $1,412. That's a 1.01% yield.

This isn't trading; it's picking up pennies in front of a geopolitical steamroller. The market implies a 0.4% "No" chance.

Meanwhile, Iran's reportedly ditching talks and launching missiles. Hello, tail risk!

Smart money bought "Yes" at $0.20. Our whale? They're the exit liquidity, showing up to the party after everyone's cashed out.

Resolution rules are a minefield: "mutually agreed"? "Direct engagement"? This isn't a sure thing; it's an oracle dispute waiting to happen.

This isn't yield farming. It's a masterclass in losing $139,803 for a meme. Good luck with the oracle gods.

Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →

Total Volume

$17,033,850.749

24h Volume

$3,442,862.485

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-02-28

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran reach an official, publicly announced, and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if no such formal ceasefire agreement is confirmed by that time, excluding informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian stand-downs.

Timeline

The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market's resolution depends on whether this agreement is confirmed by this specific time.

Source

The resolution will primarily be based on official statements from both the United States and Iranian governments. Alternatively, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be that informal agreements, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian ceasefires would qualify, but they do not. The agreement must be mutually agreed, publicly announced, and explicitly commit to stopping military engagement.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran conflict, Iran US peace

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Trump dropped the "ceasefire" bomb, and whales piled into "Yes" like it was the last Bitcoin halving. But this peace treaty's already a dead parrot. Just 30 minutes later, Iran sent ballistic "love letters" to Israel. The New York Times whispers Iran told Pakistan, "Nah, we're out of talks."

This isn't a ceasefire; it's a geopolitical game of musical chairs with everyone armed. Contradictions abound: Israel's "complying," yet "Donkey Kong" is still on. The market's drowning in ambiguity.

The real play isn't chasing FOMO. It's deciphering the fine print. If the market *strictly* means US-Iran (excluding proxies), "Yes" might be a deep value buy. Otherwise, with missiles flying and talks collapsing, "No" is your slam dunk. Don't be a casualty of vague resolution rules.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@no_itsmyturnverified141,238 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran informed Pakistan it will no longer engage in ceasefire talks with the US, according to The New York Times.

Iran 🇮🇷 informed Pakistan 🇵🇰 it will no longer engage in ceasefire talks with the US 🇺🇸, reports The New York Times, citing senior Iranian officials.

10,176 views11 rt84 likesER:0.0022RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,527,124 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran accepted a temporary 2-week ceasefire, approved by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, involving a pause in attacks, as reported by NYT and multiple sources.

@mr_multitude @MarioNawfal No, it's not true. Iran accepted a temporary 2-week ceasefire (approved by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei), per NYT and multiple sources. It involves Iran pausing attacks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while the US halts bombing. Talks start soon in Islamabad. Their "victory declaration" from the national security council spins this as the US fully accepting Iran'...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WizzyOnChainverified85,586 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Bitcoin price rose after US President Donald Trump announced a bilateral agreement with Iran for a ceasefire on Tuesday, April 7, 2026.

JUST IN: Bitcoin price rises after Iran ceasefire announcement US President Donald Trump announced a bilateral agreement with Iran. On Tuesday, April 7, 2026, with just over an hour remaining before the ultimatum issued by US President Donald Trump to Iran was set to expire, the president posted on TruthSocial that calmed the markets.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,527,124 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Trump announced a conditional 2-week ceasefire, requiring Iran to immediately open the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran had previously rejected similar proposals.

@apitrader_dev Trump announced a conditional 2-week ceasefire hours ago: suspend US/Israeli strikes if Iran immediately opens the Strait of Hormuz fully & safely for all traffic. Iran has rejected prior temp proposals, pushing for permanent end. Shipping trackers show ~10-12 vessels transiting daily (vs ~138 pre-war), with many still loitering or rerouted amid attacks. Missiles & strikes reported ...

25 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirSona07verified56,679 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran officially accepts a 2-week ceasefire with the US and Israel.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran officially accepts 2-week ceasefire with US and Israel.

469 views1 rt9 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,400 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran's FM Araghchi stated that the country agrees to the two-week ceasefire with the US if attacks against Iran are halted, as announced by President Trump.

FM Araghchi says ‘if attacks against Iran are halted,’ then the country agrees to the terms of the two‑week ceasefire with the US, as announced by President Trump. Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall explains Tehran’s response and how the Strait of Hormuz would be opened under the deal. https://t.co/HjMyw1ws0s

10,771 views26 rt53 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@clashreportverified832,425 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Israeli officials are uneasy about the US-Iran ceasefire but plan to comply with Trump's lead, according to CNN.

Israeli officials are uneasy about the US-Iran ceasefire, though Israel plans to follow Trump’s lead and comply. Source: CNN

28,107 views45 rt348 likesER:0.0015RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirSona07verified56,679 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The US and Iran are reportedly discussing a 45-day ceasefire plan, per Axios.

US and Iran reportedly now discussing 45-day ceasefire plan, per Axios.

2,316 views3 rt18 likesER:0.0014RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DougAMacgregorverified667,097 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The United States and Iran are reportedly discussing a 45-day ceasefire plan.

BREAKING: United States and Iran reportedly discussing 45-day ceasefire plan.

500,994 views507 rt3,636 likesER:0.0207RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GBNEWS916,265 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Shay Khatiri discusses reports that Iran has fired missiles at Israel despite a ceasefire being agreed between Iran and the US.

YP and Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute Shay Khatiri discusses reports that Iran has just fired missiles at Israel, despite a ceasefire being agreed between Islamic Regime and the US. https://t.co/nr1pEBRj9t

2,564 views2 rt4 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (1)

KOL@SocialistVoiceverified84,789 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral

The user corrects misinformation, stating the Strait of Hormuz was open before the war and Iran blockaded it in response to US-Israel attacks.

You are spreading misinformation Strait of Hormuz was open before the war started on 28 February 2026 Iran blockaded it in response to US-Israel attacks that started the conflict. The current reopening is temporary/selective (2-week ceasefire, coordinated with Iran’s military)

15 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@OSN_Reports151 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The US and Iran reached a provisional ceasefire, with Tehran allowing 'conditional passage' through the Strait of Hormuz, facilitated by Pakistan.

🚨 BREAKING: CEASEFIRE AGREED. 🇮🇷 US & Iran reached a PROVISIONAL ceasefire; Tehran will allow ‘conditional passage’ through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan facilitated talks, with US holding off ‘destructive force’.⚠️ Iranian rail travel warned. #MiddleEast #Iran

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FineAndRichverified2,013 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The US and Iran have agreed to a 2-week ceasefire, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore global trade.

A massive breakthrough in the Middle East: The US and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire. The deal hinges on reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz to restore global trade. Is this the start of a lasting peace? #USA #Iran #StraitOfHormuz

5 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TellingRavindraverified12,881 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The US and Iran have agreed to an immediate 2-week ceasefire.

US and Iran agree to immediate 2-week ceasefire.

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@No_ProRelForMLSverified204 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Oil prices dropped and stock futures jumped after the US and Iran agreed to a 2-week ceasefire.

@BdrNill61209 @beamsvillemac @AntiToxicPeople Oil prices drop and stock futures jump as US and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire https://t.co/HEgSt96bpC

10 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RealGerryNolanverified9,655 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran fired ballistic missile salvos at central and southern Israel 30 minutes after the announced ceasefire, indicating Iran's response to Trump's ceasefire.

@MarioNawfal 30 minutes after the "ceasefire", Iran fired ballistic missile salvos at central and southern Israel. That is Iran’s response to Trump’s ceasefire. Missiles over central Israel while the ink was still wet. And tonight the US begged Pakistan to make it stop.

376 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@NicoleGrajewskiverified30,167 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Iran previously rejected temporary ceasefires to avoid giving the US and Israel time to regroup, and this view likely still holds, suggesting the ceasefire was to avoid strikes on Iranian targets.

Iran previously rejected any temporary ceasefire, arguing it would give the US and Israel time to regroup. That view likely still holds, it seems plausible the ceasefire was to avoid strikes on Iranian critical energy and electricity facilities.

693 views2 rt9 likesER:0.0016RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@SemiticZionist326 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user believes Iran will regret accepting the ceasefire, suggesting it's a tactic by the US to benefit Israel.

@Lowkey0nline US has used #Pakistan to buy time to replenish rearm and restock itself and prevent collapse of Israel. I can guarantee #Iran will seriously regret this acceptance of Ceasefire—The gravest mistake of their entire war strategy. Pakistan will get many leaders killed and Iran razed.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ambrosecarol2verified210 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The US is proposing a ceasefire because they are in communications with Iran, leveraging Pakistan as a mediator.

@redaction The US has a long history of using Pakistan as a third party mediator dating back to the Cold War. They are proposing a ceasefire because they are in communications with Iran. Trump still says not striking them is contingent on the strait opening

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TNamelessKnight111 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user is clarifying if the ceasefire is specifically between the US and Iran, not Iran and the broader Middle East.

@marklevinshow The ceasefire was between US and IRAN right? Not between IRAN and middle east.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Goddidddddd2,019 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user believes Israel will continue the war because the ceasefire is only between the US and Iran, suggesting the US will secretly support Israel.

@BRICSinfo What they don't know is that Israel can and would still continue with the w@r cos the ceasefire is between the US and Iran. Trust @POTUS to be sponsoring them from behind the scene🤗

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 365,446.53 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee	Yes	0.2859	0.9960	365,446.53	+$259,470.32
2	0x44de2a52d8d2d3ddcf39d58e315a10df53ba9c08	Yes	0.3516	0.9960	3.74	+$131,159.68
3	0x0eaa43c627cd482acb6866a03fe1138495e0c521	Yes	0.2960	0.9960	180,500.32	+$126,342.29
4	0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c	Yes	0.1915	0.9960	156,646.55	+$126,020.11
5	0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	Yes	0.3878	0.9960	202,042.67	+$121,704.02
6	0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73	Yes	0.3080	0.9960	162,147.02	+$111,601.42
7	0x335592400e402c26583ce8b56d12605e9548a126	Yes	0.2691	0.9960	148,532.87	+$101,214.81
8	0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804	Yes	0.3350	0.9960	133,436.12	+$99,939.76
9	0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991	Yes	0.3226	0.9960	103,653.86	+$96,923.76
10	0x56b5aced8b60c4c0cfeb9215132a8eb5395cb0a2	Yes	0.2982	0.9960	0	+$86,847.26