A $94,955 Bet Says Yes: US x Iran Ceasefire Is Coming
Erasmus. placed $94,954.58 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.9495 (market gives 95.0% probability). Total market volume $34,475,894.317, 24h volume $17,947,005.332, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.9495
If correct, $94,954.58 becomes $100,004.58 (profit $5,050)
If wrong, loses $94,955
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $94,955 on a US-Iran ceasefire, hoping for a cool $5,050 profit.
At 95% odds, that's risking nearly $95k to make $5k.
This isn't trading; it's buying a lottery ticket where you risk your house to win a new toaster.
The "mutually agreed" resolution rule? That's not a rule; it's a legal landmine.
US and Iran are spinning two wildly different narratives. "Mutual" is a fantasy.
While other whales are sitting on $449k profits, getting in at $0.0192, this latecomer is buying at 95 cents.
They're not following smart money. They're following the *wake* of smart money.
A classic case of FOMO gone wrong. This isn't a trade; it's a donation.
A truly awful bet.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a mutual halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline, confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming consensus of media. It resolves "No" if no such official, mutually agreed ceasefire is announced by the deadline.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this deadline.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official public statements from the US and Iranian governments, but widespread agreement among credible news sources confirming a ceasefire will also be accepted.
Informal talks, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks do not count as a ceasefire, and a broader peace deal only counts if it explicitly includes a mutual halt in military engagement. The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual fighting stops later.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"Ceasefire"? More like a geopolitical "It's Complicated" status update. Whales already feasted, crushing $160,000,000 in shorts as oil cratered 17%. Don't chase that ghost.
Trump declares a "definitive agreement." Iran gloats a "crushing defeat" for the US, claiming *their* 10-point plan for uranium enrichment and Hormuz *control* was accepted. Someone's selling snake oil, and it ain't just the Saudis.
This 2-week "peace" is a Potemkin ceasefire, built on mutually exclusive realities. Less a truce, more a tactical timeout before Round 2.
Markets priced permanent rainbows. But when the US inevitably denies Iran's "victory" claims, this house of cards tumbles. Fade the euphoria. Long oil. Bet against happily ever after. The real trade is the collapse.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (1)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9685 | 477,543.66 | +$449,300.78 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9685 | 355,555.18 | +$337,524.27 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9685 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9685 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9685 | 251,472.76 | +$186,219.58 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9685 | 200,000 | +$170,395.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9685 | 155,118.78 | +$154,254.72 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9685 | 174,764.3 | +$151,268.11 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9685 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9685 | 145,219.01 | +$130,792.99 |