Trade Report :

Will US forces enter Iran in 2024? $73,953 Bet Says No Way

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

0x05c4d6c877616a00a02080471c6dfb831f70003f

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$73,953

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.99

Entry Price

2026-04-07 19:36:21 ET

Time

0x05c4d6c877616a00a02080471c6dfb831f70003f placed $73,953 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.99 (market gives 99.0% probability). Total market volume $166,469,514.323, 24h volume $57,253,122.603, heat level: Very Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.99

Yes odds at 0.99, market gives 99.0% chance

0.9%

Yes

99.1%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $73,953 becomes $74,700 (profit $747)
If wrong, loses $73,953

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

US forces *already entered Iran*, and this whale just cashed out $73,953 by selling 'Yes' at 99.1%.

That 0.0:1 risk/reward ratio?

It's not a rookie mistake.

It's the cost of freedom.

They're not chasing a measly $747.

They're liberating $73,953 from dead capital purgatory.

Why wait for the oracle's snail-paced resolution?

Redeploy that cash into the next moonshot.

Other whales, already sitting on 0.0 shares, made this move days ago.

This isn't greed; it's pure capital velocity.

A masterclass in taking the guaranteed 99% and ditching the 1% headache.

Smart money plays like a chess grandmaster, always thinking three markets ahead.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$166,469,514.323

24h Volume

$57,253,122.603

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the listed date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding accidental entry, sea/air entry, or entry by non-military personnel like contractors or diplomats.

Timeline

The deadline for the qualifying event to occur is the listed date, specified in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting from various trustworthy sources.

Special Cases

The rules clarify specific scenarios that do not qualify, such as accidental entry or diplomatic missions; however, they do not specify how to handle market delays, cancellations, ties, or general disputes.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is that any US military presence, accidental entry, or entry by non-operational personnel like intelligence operatives or diplomats would count as a "Yes."

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, US Iran invasion, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 36

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran by..?" The market just screamed "YES." Remember Caesar crossing the Rubicon? A temporary landing for an F-15 crew, not a full-blown invasion, but Special Forces touched down. That's "entering" in prediction market legalese.

Retail traders are now clutching pearls over a "two-week ceasefire," thinking it means "No." Bless their hearts. They’re betting on headlines, not contracts. Iranian claims of a 10-point victory? Pure domestic-grade hopium, not actionable intel.

Whales already knew. They priced the literal truth: a foot on Iranian soil. Your "No" bet on "peace" just got body-slammed by strict rules. Learn the fine print, or watch your capital vanish like those US choppers.

KOL — High Relevance (4)

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,809,722 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US Special Forces destroyed two US military transport planes stuck on the ground in Iran during an F-15 officer rescue operation.

🚨 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Special Forces 'blew up' two US military transport planes that got stuck on ground in Iran during F-15 officer rescue operation. https://t.co/v3I4M8jPq6

228,002 views1,252 rt7,165 likesER:0.0085RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@cryptoroververified1,558,073 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Intense clashes are underway between US and Iranian forces in Southwestern Iran during rescue operations for a downed F-15 crew member, with US troops confirmed on the ground.

💥BREAKING: Ther are INTENSE clashes are underway between US and Iranian forces in Southwestern Iran related to rescue operations for our downed F-15 crew member. US troops are on the ground in Iran. https://t.co/AHftKVxUNx

153,195 views100 rt1,609 likesER:0.0023RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@q94YaHZZfZcuzMAverified218 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

@MarioNawfal Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran https://t.co/mU9sILOzkx

1,641 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:7.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranArmystan_verified134,327 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran.

🚨BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran. https://t.co/Rr0dHHQjMv

5,578 views22 rt166 likesER:0.0045RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@FaytuksNetworkverified141,706 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

A US defense official states a ceasefire is in effect and US strikes on Iran are suspended, with a White House official adding that orders may take time to reach IRGC units.

NEW: U.S. defense official says the ceasefire is now in effect and U.S. strikes on Iran have been suspended; a White House official adds it may take time for orders to reach lower-ranking IRGC units - Axios

6,058 views25 rt78 likesER:0.0041RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,524,786 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

An IRGC spokesperson claimed Iran's forces destroyed several US aircraft during a US rescue mission for a downed pilot in Isfahan, which US officials said successfully recovered both airmen.

IRGC spokesperson said Iran's forces destroyed several US aircraft during a rescue mission for a downed pilot in Isfahan, calling the operation 'a failure' after US officials said both airmen were recovered. https://t.co/tqNp7cIdUL

192,419 views717 rt3,201 likesER:0.0069RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MorseReportverified10,951 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The CENTCOM Commander ordered a B-2 bomber strike on IRGC HQ during a rescue mission for an F-15 pilot downed over Iran.

🚨WOW! The CENTCOM Commander ordered a B-2 BOMBER STRIKE that obliterated the IRGC HQ WHILE they rescued the F-15 pilot downed over Iran! "As this rescue was ongoing, they HAMMERED the regime just outside the capital of Tehran! US Special Forces on the ground, more than 100 of them, RESCUING the airman." "B-2 bombers were used...along with massive ordnance penetrators, bunker buster bombs, to ta...

692 views10 rt32 likesER:0.0212RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,185 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran confirmed a ceasefire agreement and stated the US accepted its 10-point proposal, including Iranian control of Hormuz and full compensation.

Iran confirms that it has agreed to the ceasefire agreement-Fars Iran adds that the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz, full compensation for war damages, and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

240,693 views396 rt2,160 likesER:0.0068RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@learnhistories1 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran claims the US agreed to all its demands, including withdrawing American combat forces from the region.

withdrawing American combat forces from the region.” Iran is claiming the US agreed to ALL of that. Every single thing Iran demanded from day one.

6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:6.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PressTV571,543 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Key points of an agreement include compensation to Iran, withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, and cessation of war.

🔹 Payment of compensation to Iran 🔹 Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region 🔹 Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.

2,794 views15 rt80 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AlArabiya_Eng875,920 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

The White House denied that VP JD Vance's remarks about military operations in Iran suggested a US nuclear strike.

The White House denies that remarks by Vice President JD Vance about military operations in Iran contained any suggestion of a US nuclear strike against the Islamic republic. After Vance said US forces have tools they “so far haven’t decided to use” to enforce a dramatic ultimatum from President Donald Trump, the White House said on X: “Literally nothing @VP said here ‘implies’ this, you absolute...

4,266 views12 rt13 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Currentreport1verified200,719 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Kuwait reports Iran hit two power and water desalination plants, while Iran claims US forces used Kuwait as a launch site for ATACMS missiles.

BREAKING: Kuwait says Iran hit 2 power and water desalination plants overnight, causing major damage. Iran claims US forces used Kuwait as a launch site for ATACMS missiles. https://t.co/m4A3MwZeDw

31,053 views359 rt1,833 likesER:0.0449RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,658,732 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated its forces have attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for US military operations in the Middle East and is leading the attacks on Iran, said its forces have attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/dwWzI0s5p1 https://t.co/4w2TGC1oIB

17,328 views3 rt28 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DougAMacgregorverified667,079 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The application of Iran's standoff attack weapons against US armed forces is predicted to be a significant game-changer in the 21st century.

The application of precise, devastating firepower from Iran's standoff attack weapons in all domains of warfare against the US armed forces is going to change the 21st century. FULL ARTICLE: https://t.co/U3pMmWJuN7 https://t.co/KlkfJlpIOl

45,495 views218 rt840 likesER:0.0078RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (2)

RETAIL@Domahhhhverified36,484 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish

The prediction market counted a pilot rescue operation as 'Trump sending US forces into Iran,' causing the user to lose money despite predicting peace.

Good news: Up $60k tonight predicting PEACE Bad news: Should've made 180k overall, instead ended up slightly DOWN, because of a rule cuck: Poly counted the pilot rescue as Trump sending US forces into Iran🙃 Had big NO troops in Iran bet. Yes dummies were bailed out. Literally!

884 views0 rt17 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@mirbognikverified153 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The tweet discusses the market rule 'US forces deliberately enter terrestrial territory of Iran' and implies such an event has occurred or is likely to occur.

@Domahhhh >domer: bets NO >market rules: "us forces deliberately enter terrestrial territory of iran" >happens >domer: i shouldn't have lost Title could be cleaner but winners definitely didn't get bailed out, you just lost

8 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@hindi3769015 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran has put forward 10 conditions to end the war, including control over the Hormuz Strait, withdrawal of US forces, and lifting sanctions, but no official approval has been given yet.

#Breaking 🚨 ‼️🇮🇷 Iran ने युद्ध खत्म करने के लिए 10 शर्तें रखी हैं, जिनमें Hormuz Strait पर नियंत्रण, US forces की वापसी और sanctions हटाने की मांग शामिल है। अभी किसी तरफ से आधिकारिक मंजूरी नहीं आई है। Stay connected. #Iran #USA

45 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:3.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MRcpn7verified81 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Israel Hayom reports that three agreed points include the withdrawal of all US forces from the region and full compensation to Iran.

🔴Israel Hayom: Three of the ten points agreed upon by the United States are particularly noteworthy: 1. Withdrawal of all US forces from all bases in the region 2. Full compensation to Iran, as estimated 3. Lifting of all sanctions and release of all frozen Iranian assets abroad #Irán #Israël #IranWar‌

62 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Knight_riders182,251 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

After a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, there was another set of missile and drone attacks from Iran towards the UAE.

As I Started Hosting Space To Discuss On US-Iran Ceasefire After 1 Hour Of Announcement Made Public Another Set Of Missile and Drone Attack From Iranian Terrorists Towards UAE UAE Defense Forces Successfully Intercepting Them #IranWar‌ #Israël #Irán #MiddleEast #Dubai https://t.co/wfwYPHIShx

431 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0093RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@prestonsbatesverified931 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council declares victory, stating the US was forced to accept Tehran's 10-point plan, including Iranian control in Hormuz and acceptance of enrichment.

BREAKING -- IRAN DECLARES VICTORY — Supreme National Security Council US ‘FORCED’ to accept TEHRAN’S 10-POINT PLAN KEY POINTS: — US agrees to IRANIAN CONTROL IN HORMUZ — accepts ENRICHMENT — lifts SANCTIONS — Pays COMPENSATION — US forces WITHDRAW source: RT

48 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ferozwalaverified12,902 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's National Security Council states an agreement stipulates full compensation payment to Iran and lifting all sanctions.

#Breaking #Iran's National Security Council: - The agreement stipulates full #compensation payment to #Iran - @qudsn https://t.co/bNnZ4EXo6W - Lifting all #sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets abroad - #Withdrawal of #US forces from all bases in the region - Negotiations will begin on Friday in Islamabad amid complete distrust of the US side

87 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@theinformant_xverified35,364 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

US and Israeli forces have launched airstrikes on western Tehran, striking around Mehrabad Airport.

❗️🇺🇸🇮🇱⚔️🇮🇷 — US and Israeli forces have launched airstrikes on western Tehran, Iran. Airstrikes struck the area around Mehrabad Airport in western Tehran, triggering large-scale fires and significant explosions. https://t.co/3StGuJPPVk

992 views2 rt14 likesER:0.0015RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MattMcBradley43,839 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran's 10-point counterproposal, which Trump called 'a workable basis,' includes requests the US will likely oppose.

Iran's own 10 point counterproposal, which Trump called "a workable basis on which to negotiate," includes a number of requests that the US will likely oppose. Among them (according to Iran): - Controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iran’s armed forces

68 views1 rt0 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@zzZJshowverified14 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran's 10-point plan submitted to the US includes demands for Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz and for the withdrawal of all US combat forces from the region.

Iran's 10-point plan submitted to US: 1. Iran controls Strait of Hormuz passage 2. End war on all "Axis of Resistance" members 3. Withdraw all US combat forces from region 4. Safe transit agreement ensuring Iran's dominance 5. Full compensation for Iran's losses 6. Lift all sanctions Iran claims "historic victory" and "enemy's thorough defeat." 🏆

18 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@itellsya1,322 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran claims a great victory, stating the US has accepted its 10-point plan, including Iranian control over Hormuz and enrichment.

'Iran has achieved a great victory and forced the criminal America to accept its 10-point plan. In this plan, America has fundamentally committed to guaranteeing .. Iranian control over Hormuz, enrichment, lifting sanctions, paying compensation, withdrawing US combat forces [..]'

34 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Rick_is_right432 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran claims a deal includes a lasting ceasefire, Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, continued uranium enrichment, and lifting of sanctions.

@CarlHigbie Is this really the deal? Iran says - -Lasting ceasefire - Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz -Iran continuing to be able to enrich uranium -Lifting all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran - Paying compensation to Iran - Withdrawing US combat forces from the region

46 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0099	0.0095	0	+$680,915.74
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9905	800,779.93	+$285,010.39
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9905	620,990.26	+$230,266.29
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0095	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9905	138,947.76	+$49,387.63
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9905	175,760.61	+$46,635.88
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9905	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9905	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9905	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9905	0	+$35,796.86