99% Sure: US Forces Won't Enter Iran, Per $182,851 Bet
jwp9999 placed $182,850.88 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.989 (market gives 98.9% probability). Total market volume $164,650,537.014, 24h volume $55,664,785.384, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.989
If correct, $182,850.88 becomes $184,884.88 (profit $2,034)
If wrong, loses $182,851
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
This whale, dumping $182,851 worth of 'Yes' shares on 'US forces enter Iran' at a cool 98.9%, isn't betting against the invasion. They’re just not stupid.
Why risk $182,851 for a measly $2,034 more profit? That's like trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, or waiting for the last drop from a nearly empty champagne bottle. Pure degeneracy.
The real play? Avoiding that 1.1% oracle resolution nightmare. Is it special ops or intel? The Pentagon will never tell, and UMA might just shrug.
Meanwhile, $182,851 is now free. Ready to hunt actual alpha, not babysit a near-certainty. Check the Top 10 whales; half already cashed out, sitting pretty at '0.0 shares'.
This isn't a trade; it's a capital efficiency masterclass. A surgical strike on potential tail risk. Chef's kiss, you magnificent bastard.
Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational reasons by the specified date; otherwise, it resolves "No". This excludes intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomatic entries, and accidental entries like being shot down.
The market's deadline is the listed date, observed in Eastern Time (ET), after which the outcome will be determined.
The outcome will be determined by a general agreement among trustworthy news reports and information sources.
Not specified in the rules.
People might misunderstand that only deliberate entry into Iran's land territory by active military for operational purposes counts, excluding intelligence, contractors, diplomatic visits, or accidental entries.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US military Iran
Relevant tweets: 36
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Whales are dumping "Yes" on US forces entering Iran, convinced by a "ceasefire" and oil’s 20% dive. Don’t be a lemming. This "peace deal" is shakier than a Jenga tower in an earthquake.
Trump's "suspension" is conditional. Iran declares "historic victory," dictating 10 points America hasn't agreed to. It's a diplomatic pretzel.
Meanwhile, B-52s are airborne. Iran just missile-kissed Israel. And Kim Jong Un brought nukes to the party, threatening the US.
This isn't a ceasefire; it’s a time-out before round two. If market rules define airspace incursions as "entering," buying "Yes" at these fire-sale prices? That's not contrarian, that's just smart.
KOL — High Relevance (2)
KOL — Medium Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1 | No | 0.0099 | 0.0115 | 0 | +$680,915.74 |
| 2 | 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d | Yes | 0.6345 | 0.9885 | 800,779.93 | +$283,408.83 |
| 3 | 0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3 | Yes | 0.6196 | 0.9885 | 620,990.26 | +$229,024.31 |
| 4 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | No | 0.0070 | 0.0115 | 0 | +$58,641.17 |
| 5 | 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708 | Yes | 0.6421 | 0.9885 | 138,947.76 | +$49,109.73 |
| 6 | 0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3 | Yes | 0.7805 | 0.9885 | 175,760.61 | +$46,284.36 |
| 7 | 0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14 | Yes | 0.6716 | 0.9885 | 0 | +$42,372.6 |
| 8 | 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7 | Yes | 0.6225 | 0.9885 | 0.01 | +$41,966.64 |
| 9 | 0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947 | Yes | 0.5408 | 0.9885 | 0 | +$39,847.37 |
| 10 | 0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848 | Yes | 0.5986 | 0.9885 | 0 | +$35,796.86 |