US x Iran Ceasefire Imminent? $239,829 Bet Says Yes
jwp9999 placed $239,829 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.994 (market gives 99.4% probability). Total market volume $85,954,422.473, 24h volume $60,514,287.138, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.994
If correct, $239,829 becomes $241,277 (profit $1,448)
If wrong, loses $239,829
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
This whale just dropped $239,829 for a *measly* $1,448 profit, betting on a US-Iran ceasefire at 99.4% odds. Yes, risking 165 units to gain 1. Most would call it insane; this whale calls it "yield farming."
They're betting on 100% certainty, scooping up the market's last crumbs. While early whales raked in up to $462,433, this one's a latecomer, treating it like a short-duration sovereign bond.
But here’s the kicker: the real risk isn't geopolitics, it's *semantics*. "Official ceasefire" versus "de-escalation." One wrong word from an oracle, and that $239,829 principal goes poof.
It's an "average to good" trade if you're a robot with infinite capital. For the rest of us, it's playing bureaucratic roulette with your entire stake. Good luck, pal. Don't trip on the way to the bank.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a mutual halt in direct military engagement by the listed date and time. It resolves "No" if such an explicit, publicly announced, and mutually agreed ceasefire agreement is not reached by the deadline.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on whether this agreement is finalized by that specific time.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. An overwhelming consensus among credible media outlets confirming an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will also suffice.
The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is officially reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect after that date. Other special cases like delays, cancellations, or dispute resolution processes are not specified in the rules.
A common misunderstanding might be confusing informal talks, unilateral pauses, or agreements for future negotiations with an official, mutually agreed ceasefire. Another mistake could be thinking the ceasefire itself must take effect by the deadline, rather than just the agreement being reached.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US x Iran ceasefire by...?" The big money has spoken. Whales are betting *hard* against a quick resolution, with 80% of their capital stacked against a peace deal by the deadline.
Forget the soft whispers of diplomacy. Retail chatter, a chaotic 55% bullish on a ceasefire, looks like a flock of pigeons hoping the hawk will offer them crumbs. This isn't a market for wishful thinking.
When the leviathans of capital position 4:1 short, you don't fight them. You don't "hope" your way to profit. Their conviction isn't built on vibes, but on hard data or deeper insights. Align with the whales. Or prepare to be the plankton.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 412,404.52 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.6271 | 0.9935 | 412,404.52 | +$192,785.61 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9935 | 155,118.78 | +$158,132.69 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |