Trade Report :
Iran-Israel/US Conflict: Bet $88,661 for $61,332 — Worth it?
ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
wan123 (0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b)
PolyMarket : Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$88,660.61
Trade Amount
SELL Yes
Trade Side
0.5911
Entry Price
Time
wan123 placed $88,660.61 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?" at odds 0.5911 (market gives 59.1% probability). Total market volume $4,395,727.002, 24h volume $2,379,400.333, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.5911
Yes odds at 0.5911, market gives 59.1% chance
Risk/reward ratio 0.7:1
If correct, $88,660.61 becomes $149,992.61 (profit $61,332)
If wrong, loses $88,661
If correct, $88,660.61 becomes $149,992.61 (profit $61,332)
If wrong, loses $88,661
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
This whale just bet $88,661 against a 14-day Middle East ceasefire. Selling "Yes" at 61.2%? That's not just a trade; it's a public service announcement for the retail herd.
While others tripped over themselves buying "peace" headlines, this shark smelled blood. A 0.7:1 risk/reward on a 60% "Yes" probability? That's not a prediction, it's a fantasy novel.
Remember those OGs who bought "Yes" at $0.07? This whale isn't fighting them; they're *joining* them in the profit distribution phase. Selling into 3.73% of 24h volume? Pure liquidity provision for the FOMO crowd.
"Continuous 14-day period" in an active warzone is a statistical pipe dream. One stray missile, one "misunderstanding," and your $61,332 profit goes poof. Time favors "No" like gravity.
This isn't just an excellent trade; it's a masterclass in fading the narrative. I'm not jealous, *you're* jealous.
Market Context: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Market Page →
Total Volume
$4,395,727.002
24h Volume
$2,379,400.333
Heat
Very Hot
End Date
2026-03-31
Created
2026-02-28
Holders
10
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
Conditions
The market resolves "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any direct military action between Iran, and Israel or the United States against each other's land or official buildings. It resolves "No" if such a peaceful 14-day period does not occur.
Timeline
A 14-day period of no military action must begin between the market's creation and its specified end date, and must continue without interruption for the full 14 days. The rules do not specify a general resolution date for the market itself.
Source
The outcome is determined by official government acknowledgments of military actions or a clear consensus among credible news reporting.
Special Cases
Not specified in the rules.
Common Mistakes
It is easy to misunderstand what counts as "military action," as cyberattacks, sanctions, and attacks by proxy groups are specifically excluded. Also, Iranian actions must be directly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Iran Israel conflict, Iran US conflict, Middle East tensions
Relevant tweets: 39
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"Trump announces ceasefire"? Market, pump the brakes. That $31,882 Polymarket whale buying "YES" for April 30 is playing a fool's game. This isn't peace; it's a "Mission Accomplished" banner before the war even ends.
Iran explicitly rejected a *temporary* ceasefire, demanding permanent peace. Missiles are still flying. Israel isn't at this supposed peace table. The Strait of Hormuz? Still blockaded.
A two-week truce, if real, expires *before* April 30. That's a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. The market's pricing headlines, not ground truth.
"NO" on this market isn't just shrewd; it's a geopolitical slam dunk. Don't get caught in this bull trap. When reality diverges this wildly from rhetoric, bet against the hype.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
@Supheey Iran's 10-point proposal (delivered via Pakistan) outlines key demands for a permanent end to the conflict with the US and Israel:
- Security guarantees: No more attacks on Iran.
- Halt Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- Complete lifting of all US sanctions.
In exchange, Iran agrees to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately and safely, while imposing a ~$2 million fee per...
@saralucia @WarMonitor3 No, it's not true. The Strait of Hormuz has not been officially reopened. Iran maintains its blockade (in place since late February amid the US-Israel conflict), with shipping traffic still down ~90%. Trump's 8pm ET deadline today was for Iran to agree to full, immediate reopening in exchange for a 2-week strike suspension—diplomatic talks via Pakistan are ongoing, but no c...
@NancyIsime678 @spectatorindex Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire with Iran after last-minute talks, hours before his deadline to strike Iranian power plants and bridges over the ongoing Middle East conflict (US/Israel vs. Iran).
It follows Iran's rejection of a longer 45-day proposal and aims to pause escalation, stabilize oil markets, and open space for permanent talks—though both sides have v...
@standoski @Kalshi Got it. Kalshi is flagging a breaking development: Iran has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict.
It stems from Pakistan-mediated talks. Trump agreed to pause strikes (after threatening attacks on Iranian infrastructure) on the condition that Iran immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz for safe shipping. Iran had been blocking it amid the figh...
🚀🇮🇷🇮🇱NOW: Ballistic missile launches from Iran towards Israel
🤣 ISRAEL IS APPARENTLY NOT PART OF THE 2-WEEK CEASEFIRE! https://t.co/yx6z7aZCCr
A White House official told Axios that a 45-day ceasefire is being considered in the ongoing conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel.
🚨#BREAKING: Israel is part of the ongoing conflict as a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has been agreed to.
@FurkanGozukara The ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has sparked intense debate, with day 38 of strikes reported and Pakistan pushing a two-week ceasefire proposal involving Strait of Hormuz access. The shared document does not match any verified statements from Iran's Foreign Ministry per current reports—Araghchi has rejected recent truce offers and emphasized no ceasefire requests.
Prominent US ...
Unhinged democrat Ro Khanna (D-CA) reveals his strategy to end the conflict with Iran on CNN.
1. "Immediate ceasefire"
2. Give Iran an "ironclad guarantee" that the U.S. & Israel will not attack again and "involve China & Russia in that"
3. "Look at some of the sanctions and have a diplomatic solution"
How does someone like this clown get elected?
@Abutusundaybfg @spectatorindex The announced ceasefire is a two-week pause between the US, Israel, and Iran, tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and starting talks in Islamabad for a longer-term deal. Iran has accepted the temporary halt per latest reports. Whether it fully ends the conflict depends on those negotiations.
KOL — Medium Relevance (9)
Russia has shared detailed intelligence with Iran on approximately 50 critical Israeli energy infrastructure sites.
This assistance is seen as part of deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. - Jerusalem Post, https://t.co/a682Kw9tVc
@TheMattericksen @IranArmyMedia The Iranian account's statement stems from the ongoing 2026 US-Israel conflict with Iran, which began with airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear sites, and military assets after years of tensions. Iran retaliated with missiles, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and caused global shipping disruptions. President Trump's recent threats of broader s...
@AssalRad TV news interview tonight with my wife, Dr. Mozhgan Savabieasfahani, who is in Tehran:
"Ann Arbor woman in Tehran details life under bombings during Iran conflict"
https://t.co/unGQSGhrWv
- We continue to demand a resolution against military aid to Israel in the Ann Arbor, Michigan City Council.
The Escalating Conflict Between Iran and Israel: The Role of the United States
🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸
In recent weeks, the long-simmering tensions between Iran and Israel have erupted into an open conflict. Iranian missile strikes on Israeli territory, paired with retaliatory Israeli airstrikes, have set the region ablaze. Beyond the immediate destruction, the involvement of the United States has further i...
🚨 BREAKING
Nuclear tensions spike as Iran launches advanced missiles amid escalating conflict with the US and Israel. https://t.co/UJKzRORued
❌❌❌ BREAKING:
Iran says retaliatory strikes targeting key bridges and railway networks across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel are expected to begin at 23:00 Tehran time, marking a major escalation in the conflict. https://t.co/Q7tfSIaKpI
🚨 POWER SHIFT
Iran has reduced multiple Israeli cities to ruins, signaling a dramatic shift in regional dominance. By challenging both Israel and the U.S., Tehran aims to demonstrate its status as the true superpower in the conflict. 🇮🇷💪🚀
#Iran #Israel https://t.co/x3seiiP7W7
On Scratching the Surface, Shir Perets unpakcs three theories surrounding the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, along with the curious case of public figures' death hoaxes.
During the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel in April 2026, reports indicated that four extremist Israeli settlers died by Iranian missile strikes, after rescue teams recovered the final two bodies from the rubble of a stolen Palestinian building that had been hit. https://t.co/ksa65jnPV5
Retail — High Relevance (10)
🐋 Polymarket Group Activity Alert 🐋
🐋🐋 SUSPICIOUS GROUP ACTIVITY 🐋🐋
*** Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? ***
2 BUYs on ✅ YES | $31,882 | T/V24h: 51.4% (V24h: $62,016)
>> 2026-04-07 18:49 EST | Casdifer bought $19,172 at Price: 59.00%
>> 2026-04-07 18:50 EST | Jnas bought $12,710 at Price: 66.38%
-------------------------------
🐋🐋 SUSPICIOUS GROUP ACTIVITY 🐋🐋
*** Will the U....
A major diplomatic achievement by #Pakistan. At a time when the US–Iran/Israel conflict was escalating Pakistan’s efforts helped secure a two week halt in hostilities, preventing large-scale destruction and creating space for dialogue
#proud 🇵🇰
@prettytoes @SecRubio No he didn’t.
Iran hasn’t agreed to jack shit.
They’ve not even agreed to open the straight.
Meanwhile the Iranian regime is killing thousands daily.
And Israel has got their Middle East conflict they longed from, enabled by their new rent-bitch they borrowed from Putin.
⚠️ ❤️ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 President Trump's unyielding pressure and strategic ultimatum have forced a breakthrough ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict, with both sides aligning under American leadership to de-escalate while securing vital global interests like the Strait of Hormuz.
In a dramatic Truth Social post hours before his self-imposed deadline for devastating strikes on Iranian power plants...
@MarkNaughton9 **No, there is no active large-scale "hitting" by Iran on Israel right this second (as of late April 7, 2026 UTC), but the conflict is ongoing with recent Iranian missile strikes on Israel and a fragile, limited US-Iran ceasefire announcement that explicitly does not cover Israel.
Current Situation
- **Recent Iranian attacks on Israel**: Iran has continued launching ballistic missi...
#Israel won´t attack #Iran and probably is going to have the same behavior with #Lebanon
The conflict between Tel-Aviv and #Hezbollah is over or postponed...
#MiddleEastConflict
🚀🇮🇷🇮🇱NOW: Ballistic missile launches from Iran towards Israel
🤣 ISRAEL IS APPARENTLY NOT PART OF THE 2-WEEK CEASEFIRE! https://t.co/TfowVQ38WO
🟦 EVENING RECAP — April 7, 2026
⭕️ BREAKING —
• U.S. will suspend strikes on Iran for two weeks if Tehran immediately and safely reopens the Strait of Hormuz, calling a ceasefire deal close-President Trump
• Pakistan emerges as the main mediator, with Vice President JD Vance serving as the U.S. interlocutor and Iranian officials signaling they may accept a two-week ceasefire while holding firm...
BREAKING: Iran REJECTS Latest Ceasefire Proposal
The remaining regime emphasized the necessity of a permanent end to the war with the US & Israel
“Iran’s also suggesting 10 different clauses: an end to the conflict in the region, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz & the lifting of sanctions in addition to reconstruction”
“[They also want] reparations thus far to help Iran pay for what's b...
❗️🇮🇱🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 - On April 7, 2026, Iran rejected any temporary ceasefire with the United States and insisted that talks focus solely on a lasting peace. Its preconditions include an immediate end to all attacks, guarantees that they will not resume, and compensation for damages suffered. Under any permanent agreement, Iran also demands fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel has l...
Retail — Medium Relevance (9)
he report you shared details the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran as of Tuesday, April 7, 2026.
Current Conflict Status
The U.S. and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial strikes, the conflict has intensified, centered largely on th...
@SyrianShabab Not all. Those who do, do out of retribution feelings for what they perceive as Iran’s support for Asad. Understandable. However this conflict is not Iran vs. Gulf. This is Israel vs. all. Many Syrians are coming to terms pretty soon.
UPDATE: Qatar warns U.S.–Israel war on Iran could soon become uncontrollable, Foreign Ministry spokesman says, adding Doha is “very exhausted” by the conflict and urging de-escalation. https://t.co/QalNdD0Zd0
Iran breaches Israel's air defense with cluster munitions
More and more impressive videos of the arrival of numerous cluster munitions dropped in the skies over Israel are appearing online. Over the five weeks of the conflict, Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles at Israel, 30 of which were equipped with cluster munitions.
Iranian cluster warheads can contain from 20 to 30 submunitions...
Since the Iran conflict started, a mysterious terror group calling itself Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) has appeared practically overnight to claim several attacks against Jewish and American targets in Europe — most recently at the Israel Center in Nijkerk, Netherlands. I wrote up a report on the group @MilitantWire and interviewed @ColinPClarke and @PhillipSmyth who provided expert co...
@yuriaeons yeah people like to bring back he discourse that kamala would be better, and while I agree she probably wouldn't start a war with Iran, she was 100% going to leave Israel unchecked (which would eventually lead to a conflict in the region anyway) + more tax breaks for bilionaires
@donpoopencio @OpenSourceZone 1) I’m a dual citizen
2) The conflict affects the entire world, and Trump has consistently fucked everyone over, including the people of the country I’m currently in right now.
3) it’s embarrassing as fuck, not to mention Iran is still bombing Israel as we speak.
@jacksonhinklle Coming fromRussia blaming the U.S. and Israel for the Middle East crisis is nonsense.
The conflict started because Iran attacked its neighbors. The U.S. and Israel responded. Russia just wants to shift blame while it’s busy attacking Ukraine.
@squareroot49 @RevengeofRatMan @WhoAteTheWhat @NotWoofers israel israel yap yap yap find a new boogeyman
Yeah man. Israel is 100% the reason we entered into a conflict with Iran. Very smart and educated take there, there's 0 reason for us to be in Iran. Zero! Well, heh, except for one. THE ISRAELI PUPPET MASTERS!!!
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 701,178.8 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73 | Yes | 0.0751 | 0.6125 | 483,111.44 | +$259,264.68 |
| 2 | 0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df | Yes | 0.0281 | 0.6125 | 259,375.2 | +$196,366.37 |
| 3 | 0xec1fe51724fefc0b238514e88837dbcaa07bd325 | Yes | 0.0364 | 0.6125 | 182,821.78 | +$105,305.71 |
| 4 | 0x72e4daa9b93fd3786f231c3b73c1bdbc4c48740a | Yes | 0.4703 | 0.6125 | 701,178.8 | +$99,683.79 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.0773 | 0.6125 | 9,635.75 | +$82,208.83 |
| 6 | 0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d | Yes | 0.0680 | 0.6125 | 62,687.46 | +$81,737.38 |
| 7 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | Yes | 0.0143 | 0.6125 | 28,870.85 | +$63,849.64 |
| 8 | 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825 | Yes | 0.0545 | 0.6125 | 0 | +$62,005.54 |
| 9 | 0x1d16b887703318582321c3c96687f565919ee798 | Yes | 0.0113 | 0.6125 | 0 | +$24,343.58 |
| 10 | 0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4 | Yes | 0.4625 | 0.6125 | 0.01 | +$18,151.3 |