92% Sure: US-Iran Ceasefire Will Be Reached, Per $76,457 Bet
steeplejack placed $76,457.31 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.92 (market gives 92.0% probability). Total market volume $33,133,966.431, 24h volume $16,609,344.447, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.92
If correct, $76,457.31 becomes $83,106.31 (profit $6,649)
If wrong, loses $76,457
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $76,457 on a US-Iran ceasefire 'Yes' for a measly $6,649 profit. This isn't trading; it's a charitable donation.
Paying 92% for 'Yes' after Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly called it 'deception'? That's like buying Blockbuster stock after Netflix IPO'd.
While the *smart* money whales were scooping shares at $0.0192, our hero waltzed in at $0.92, providing their exit liquidity. Chef's kiss for the early birds.
The resolution demands a 'mutually agreed' halt. Not a unilateral tweet, not a conditional offer. Not when one side's Doomsday Plane is warming up.
This isn't picking up pennies in front of a steamroller; it's trying to catch a falling anvil with your bare hands. Blindfolded. A spectacularly bad trade. The oracle is going to eat this whale alive.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if such an official, mutual ceasefire agreement is not reached and publicly confirmed by the deadline.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether this agreement was made by that specific time, regardless of when the ceasefire itself takes effect.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official public statements from both the United States and Iranian governments. However, a widespread consensus among credible media reports confirming an official ceasefire agreement will also be sufficient for resolution.
Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, humanitarian breaks, or temporary tactical stand-downs do not count as an official ceasefire. A broader peace deal only qualifies if it explicitly includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement with a specified effective date.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US ceasefire, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The market's gone full Pavlovian. Trump’s 'ceasefire' headline, a promised 2-week pause, sent USOIL plummeting 15%, Dow futures soaring 900 points. $160M in shorts vaporized. A whale nailed "Yes" at 15.5¢ on the *announcement*. That was the easy money.
Now? This isn't a ceasefire; it's the Emperor's New Clothes. Iran's MFA explicitly rejected it, calling it a "deception." The US demands Hormuz open *first*. Yet, Fars News claims Iran *agreed* and gets Hormuz control. Contradictions? We're swimming in them.
Trump’s 'Doomsday Plane' is circling. Israel's sirens are active. This "peace" is a mirage built on quicksand. The market's pricing a fantasy. Don't chase this euphoria. Short the "Yes" side or ride the "No" train. This 'ceasefire' is a lie wrapped in a condition inside a rejection.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (2)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9130 | 477,543.66 | +$422,797.1 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9130 | 355,555.18 | +$317,790.96 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9130 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9130 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9130 | 251,472.76 | +$172,262.84 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9130 | 200,000 | +$159,295.79 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9130 | 155,118.78 | +$145,645.63 |
| 8 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9130 | 57,362.11 | +$145,585.88 |
| 9 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9130 | 174,764.3 | +$141,568.7 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9130 | 145,219.01 | +$122,733.34 |