Trade Report :
Why Someone Wagered $271,309 Against US Forces Entering Iran
ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
steeplejack (0xcf6087abd66e16b59a122d45bfcdc05d4b7247ce)
PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?
$271,308.91
Trade Amount
SELL Yes
Trade Side
0.989
Entry Price
Time
steeplejack placed $271,308.91 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.989 (market gives 98.9% probability). Total market volume $163,172,431.013, 24h volume $55,192,306.843, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.989
Yes odds at 0.989, market gives 98.9% chance
Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $271,308.91 becomes $274,326.91 (profit $3,018)
If wrong, loses $271,309
If correct, $271,308.91 becomes $274,326.91 (profit $3,018)
If wrong, loses $271,309
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just dropped $271,309 betting US forces are *already* in Iran, hoping to snag a cool $3,018. That's not trading, that's picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
You're risking a quarter-million for pocket change, with market odds at 98.9% already. The OG whales bought 'Yes' at $0.60; you're buying at $0.99. You're not smart money; you're the guy showing up to the after-party when everyone else is nursing a hangover.
The market hinges on whether a "covert insertion" was military or intelligence. Betting $271,309 on the semantic classification of a classified rumor? That's not a trade; it's a prayer. A very expensive, very foolish prayer. If it resolves "No," you're not just losing money, you're losing your dignity. Ouch.
Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →
Total Volume
$163,172,431.013
24h Volume
$55,192,306.843
Heat
Very Hot
End Date
Not specified
Created
2026-01-11
Holders
10
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
Conditions
The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, diplomatic personnel, or accidental entries.
Timeline
The key deadline for the event to occur is the listed date, specified in Eastern Time (ET).
Source
The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting from various sources.
Special Cases
Not specified in the rules.
Common Mistakes
People might misunderstand that only deliberate entry onto land by active military for operational purposes counts, excluding intelligence, contractors, diplomatic visits, or accidental entries.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Iran invasion, US troops Iran, US Iran conflict
Relevant tweets: 39
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US forces enter Iran by...?" The smart money isn't buying the ground invasion hype. Retail's salivating over a "two-week ceasefire" as if it’s D-Day prep.
But the Pentagon brass? They're screaming "body bags," remembering past quagmires. 14 million Iranian volunteers aren't just a number; they're a logistical nightmare even Genghis Khan would balk at. Trump’s playbook screams "air power," not infantry.
Larry Johnson's bombshell of an *already failed* covert ground op to rescue F-15 pilots? That's the Moby Dick of unpriced information. If market rules count *any* boot on the ground, that changes everything.
And "April 2026" dates? That's a Matrix glitch, not breaking news. Don't trade wargames as reality. Fade the retail mania. Watch the resolution rules like a hawk. Whales smell air strikes, not cannon fodder.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
It’s now almost certain that Iran ambushed US forces attempting to evacuate pilots of downed jets.
Ambush targeted not only forces trying to deploy on ground, but also jets & helicopters involved in mission.
This can give some insight on what happens in the case of an invasion.
JUST IN: FORMER CIA LARRY JOHNSON CONFIRMS MY THEORY - YESTERDAY WAS A FAILED GROUND INVASION
The downed US F-15 in Iran was actually preparing for a massive ground attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. The rescue mission was a total catastrophe. https://t.co/CIk0tjGEZj
JUST IN: FORMER CIA LARRY JOHNSON CONFIRMS MY THEORY - YESTERDAY WAS A FAILED GROUND INVASION
The downed US F-15 in Iran was actually preparing for a massive ground attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. The rescue mission was a total catastrophe. https://t.co/NOAjZLfXAI
🇮🇷🇺🇸 GROUND INVASION OF IRAN = MASS CASUALTIES EXPECTED
Pepe Escobar says Pentagon insiders are warning of heavy losses and “body bags” if a ground operation goes ahead.
The talk is shifting from “easy victory” to “this could get very bloody, very fast.”
@realpepeescobar https://t.co/ucWqbVeK5Z
🇺🇸💥Pentagon Prepares for Potential Ground Invasion of Iran:
U.S. forces struck dozens of military sites on Iran's Kharg Island overnight.
The targets included bunkers, ammunition storage facilities, a radar station, and other military infrastructure such as naval mine and missile storage sites.
Landing docks and oil infrastructure were reportedly not intentionally targeted.
Kharg Island is ...
Iran’s plan is to draw out a ground invasion.
Trump knows better.
The United States can achieve its goals from the air.
U.S.-Israeli aircraft directly targeted Iranian Red Crescent rescue and relief vehicle in Sepidan County, Fars Province.
Since initiating war on Iran and invasion of Lebanon, Israel has been deliberately targeting ambulances and hospitals systematically, defying international law in complete war crime.
The US Army Chief of Staff refused to sacrifice soldiers in a ground invasion of Iran, only to have them return in coffins, mothers losing their sons, children missing their fathers, and mothers mourning their children. This is why he was dismissed, because Trump insisted on sending ground troops. A salute to this brave man who protected every American life.
The US has started its ground invasion in Iran…and it’s been a miserable failure thus far. https://t.co/AwlKJRVPhh
@StevoGrimesUO04 @PoliticsLeeches @paleochristcon @damoons45 @OwenShroyer1776 (2) gaining regional hegemony and weakening their biggest enemy. An invasion of Iran would cost tens of thousands of American lives and more money than we have put into the 4 years of Ukraine, and there is no evidence we have the capabilities to win esp. considering (cont.)
KOL — Medium Relevance (10)
BREAKING: 14 MILLION Iranians stand ready to defend their homeland!
Iran, with a population of 90 million, reports a massive surge in volunteers—14 million citizens are stepping forward to defend their country against a potential US invasion.
The proposal from Iran?
End of sanctions
Guarantee of no more war
End of Israeli invasion into Lebanon
$2 million tax per ship crossing the Strait to be split by Iran and Oman
Trump says this is a 'workable basis'
🇮🇷⚡️– Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian has registered himself in Jan Fada campaign to sacrifice his life fighting for Iran if necessary.
14 millions so far have registered across the country to defend against a possible ground invasion from the U.S.
BREAKING: 14 MILLION Iranians stand ready to defend their homeland!
Iran, with a population of 90 million, reports a massive surge in volunteers—14 million citizens are stepping forward to defend their country against a potential US invasion.
🇺🇸🇮🇷IRAN WAR - APRIL 6, 2026: CEASEFIRE FAILS, TENSIONS SOAR🚨🕊️ Ceasefire Talks & Diplomacy
- 🇵🇰Pakistan, 🇪🇬Egypt & 🇹🇷Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire to the 🇺🇸US & 🇮🇷Iran
- Iran rejected it, demanding: permanent end to war, safe Strait of Hormuz passage, sanctions relief, & reconstruction aid
- Trump calls it a “significant step” but “NOT GOOD ENOUGH”, insists he alone decides ...
🚨Iran's Supreme National Security Council:
At the beginning of this unjust war, the enemy believed it could quickly achieve total military dominance over Iran, create political and social instability, and force Iran into submission.
They assumed Iran’s missile and drone capabilities would be quickly neutralized and did not believe Iran could respond so powerfully beyond its borders and across t...
🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE
🚨 🚨NOBODY UNDERSTANDS
WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨 🚨
PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN:
"The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night."
@GROK is ground invasion loading ? https://t.co/cDwttuF01t
Statement of the Islamic Regime's Supreme National Security Council
"The enemy, in its unfair, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat. By the blessing of the pure and holy blood of the martyred leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Ayatollah al-Uzma Imam Khamenei (Peace be upon him), the strategies of the Supreme Le...
⚡️🇮🇷 IRGC-linked Iranian media has released digitally enhanced video showing the first-ever appearance of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, walking into the operations room.
This video is in response to Trump’s continuous threats against Iran and a possible ground invasion. https://t.co/3Hj4EAMEEy
Fars News:
Statement of the Supreme National Security Council
In the Name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
It is hereby announced to the noble, great, and heroic nation of Iran:
The enemy has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat in its dishonorable, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation. By the grace of the pure and sacred blood of the martyred leade...
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Note that Israel publicly refused to commit any troops to an invasion of Iran. She started the war and refuses to do what is necessary to finish it. Not a real ally or loyal in any respect. Bye!
Nuclear Attack Fears Mount After Trump Threatens To Wipe Out All Of Iranian Civilization! Iran Cuts All Contact With US!
Israel Is Bombing Kharg Island Ahead Of US Ground Invasion!
The Alex Jones Show
There's A War On For Your Mind!
4/7/2026 https://t.co/EhGVGn76zD
Americans preparing for ground invasion of Iran
(sound on)
https://t.co/NCAr1NgUTn
2 weeks for America and Israel to rearm and prepare for a ground invasion. Iran is beyond retarded if they agreed to this.
@Morgoth_888 This is either the ground invasion starts in two weeks or US is abandoning Israel by allowing Iran and the rest of the Axis of Resistance to end them notice how they aren't apart of agreement.
@WeTheBrandon Iran isn't falling for stall tactics. They are 100% preparing for a ground invasion.
@TheCradleMedia Seems like they lying themselves into ceasefire. Iran will continue pound these terrorist Epstein Empire and its colony Israel. There is nothing they can do expect ground invasion in Iran! The entire West Asian resistance forces are waiting for this!
@ahmadslmanx nothing will come of it, Trump will use this time to prepare for land invasion and will pretend that Iran broke this nonexistant "ceasefire".
Who, besides Fetterman, is pro the invasion of Iran?
@Fishlife365 @WarMonitor3 A ground invasion of a country as large as Iran would have been a disaster.
Retail — Medium Relevance (7)
❗️🇮🇱🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 - On April 7, 2026, Iran rejected any temporary ceasefire with the United States and insisted that talks focus solely on a lasting peace. Its preconditions include an immediate end to all attacks, guarantees that they will not resume, and compensation for damages suffered. Under any permanent agreement, Iran also demands fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel has l...
Israeli media is reporting that Lebanon is not included in the Iran ceasefire deal — meaning that Israel will most likely intensify its invasion of south Lebanon and attacks throughout the country
@cirnosad It’s all BS. Iranians were not negotiating. Trump is negotiating w/ Pakistan (basically a circle jerk) then announces he’s agreed to 2-week ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel will continue bombing. Iran responds & gets labeled implacable threat. Media used to justify invasion.
@ryangrim @caitoz There is no genuine ceasefire as Iranians have rejected a ceasefire. Assets continue to be moved into CENTCOM. Israel is not a party to ceasefire and will continue bombing Iran. When Iran responds, Iran will be cast as unreasonable threat thereby justifying the planned invasion.
The international community (you suck Melonie) knew this was coming and have not said anything more than a few words about the start of the war and destruction unleashed in Iran and the invasion in Lebanon. Part and parcel of what was coming is the closure of the Straight of Hormuz and disabling of enemy resources. Iran has every right to invade the GCC if attacks are unleashed at Civilian Centers...
@psps_enthusiast israel is stretched thin with their invasion of lebanon and attacking iran simultaneously
@HQNewsNow Fuck all of these peg head Democrats, they used one word against Iran.. DON'T!!! Everyone Remember That? Democrats are weak and wouldn't protect our country, they allowed an invasion of over 13 million illegals invade our country
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1 | No | 0.0099 | 0.0105 | 0 | +$680,915.74 |
| 2 | 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d | Yes | 0.6345 | 0.9895 | 800,779.93 | +$284,209.61 |
| 3 | 0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3 | Yes | 0.6196 | 0.9895 | 620,990.26 | +$229,645.3 |
| 4 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | No | 0.0070 | 0.0105 | 0 | +$58,641.17 |
| 5 | 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708 | Yes | 0.6421 | 0.9895 | 138,947.76 | +$49,248.68 |
| 6 | 0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3 | Yes | 0.7805 | 0.9895 | 175,760.61 | +$46,460.12 |
| 7 | 0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14 | Yes | 0.6716 | 0.9895 | 0 | +$42,372.6 |
| 8 | 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7 | Yes | 0.6225 | 0.9895 | 0.01 | +$41,966.64 |
| 9 | 0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947 | Yes | 0.5408 | 0.9895 | 0 | +$39,847.37 |
| 10 | 0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848 | Yes | 0.5986 | 0.9895 | 0 | +$35,796.86 |