Trade Report :

Iran-Israel Conflict: Bet $101,675 to Profit $98,709 — Worth It?

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

denizz (0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73) · @denizz_poly

PolyMarket : Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

$101,674.95

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.5074

Entry Price

2026-04-08 05:53:53 ET

Time

denizz placed $101,674.95 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?" at odds 0.5074 (market gives 50.7% probability). Total market volume $7,229,998.917, 24h volume $4,893,544.418, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.5074

Yes odds at 0.5074, market gives 50.7% chance

47.6%

Yes

52.3%

Risk/reward ratio 1:1
If correct, $101,674.95 becomes $200,383.95 (profit $98,709)
If wrong, loses $101,675

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

While retail sheep bleat about "ceasefire," one whale just dropped $101,675 to SELL "Yes" on the Iran x Israel conflict ending. They’re betting that 14-day peace is a mirage. At $0.52, they're fading the masses who swallowed headlines whole. The *real* OGs bought "Yes" at $0.02; now they’re distributing their bags. This whale? Either a profit-taker or initiating a genius tactical short against that 50.7% "peace" delusion.

It's a high-caliber move, exploiting mispriced EV. But here's the hook: this market resolves by March 31, 2026. A 14-day lull could happen *anytime* over two years. Hold this position too long, and that $98,709 profit becomes a ticking time bomb. You'll be praying for skirmishes until 2026, champ. Don't mistake a brilliant sprint for a marathon you can't win.

Market Context: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Market Page →

Total Volume

$7,229,998.917

24h Volume

$4,893,544.418

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

2026-03-31

Created

2026-02-28

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any direct military attacks between Iran, and Israel or the United States on each other's soil, embassies, or consulates. It resolves "No" if such a 14-day period does not occur between the market's creation and its specified end date.

Timeline

The 14-day period of no military action can begin anytime between the market's creation and its specified end date, and must continue uninterrupted until 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.

Source

The outcome is determined by official acknowledgments from the acting governments or a clear consensus from credible news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is that any hostile act counts as military action; however, only direct use of force by the specified governments against each other's soil or embassies, excluding cyberattacks, sanctions, and proxy attacks, qualifies. Another mistake could be overlooking that the 14-day period must be entirely continuous and uninterrupted.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Iran Israel conflict, Iran US conflict, Iran Israel US

Relevant tweets: 37

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?" Market bought the headline. Retail went full lemming, piling into "Yes" on a "2-week ceasefire" rumor. $4.9M volume, 53¢ spike. Classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" trap.

But the ceasefire? A dead parrot. Israel keeps hitting Hezbollah; Iran says that voids it. It's "peace in our time," but for two weeks, not forever. NYT even says Iran *rejected* US talks.

Israel's interceptor stocks are critically low – this isn't peace, it's a reload. Russia evacuating Iran's nuclear plant? That's not a ceasefire, that's a *warning shot*.

A whale just dropped $19,209 on "No." Follow the money, not the headlines. This "truce" is thinner than a politician's promise. Conflict *not* ending by April 7.

KOL — High Relevance (9)

KOL@grokverified8,522,702 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement was reported today (April 8, 2026), following Iran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz since late February.

@DanQuaye22 @TheLaikYobaz This is from the US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement reported today (April 8, 2026). The Strait of Hormuz was effectively blocked by Iran since late February amid the conflict with the US/Israel. As part of the truce, Iran and Oman will now charge ~$2M per ship in fees during the ceasefire period, with proceeds split for reconstruction. The "reopening" took effect with t...

45 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SprinterPressverified799,395 flwQ:5/5newsneutral

Israel announced it has stopped attacks on Iran but will continue attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Iran stated that excluding Lebanon from the ceasefire will lead to conflict resumption.

Israel stops attacks on Iran but will continue attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli army announced 🇮🇷 Iran says that excluding Lebanon from the ceasefire will lead to the resumption of conflict. https://t.co/0qf2YiOVU9

3,042 views18 rt68 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@A_M_R_M1verified243,589 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran reportedly informed Pakistani mediators of its stockpiles of 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones, indicating a willingness and capacity to continue the conflict.

🚨BREAKING: Iran reportedly told Pakistani mediators that their current stockpiles sit at 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones, indicating both a willingness to continue the conflict and a capacity for extended exchange of fires between them and the U.S.-Israel. This comes as reports of dwindling U.S., Israeli, and Gulf nation stocks of long-range precision fires and interceptors abound.

5,291 views30 rt112 likesER:0.0029RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FalconUpdatesHQverified150,188 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran has rejected US ceasefire talks and informed Pakistani mediators it will not engage in negotiations, according to the NYT, amid ongoing US-Israel strikes and rising tensions.

BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Iran rejects US ceasefire talks, tells mediators via Pakistan it will not engage in negotiations. - NYT 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 💥 Move comes amid ongoing US Israel strikes and rising tensions. 🤯 🇮🇷 Tehran signals it will only accept an end to the conflict on its terms. https://t.co/0ZZl31DTif

12,910 views15 rt187 likesER:0.0032RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FlashFeedMacroverified103 flwQ:5/5newsneutral

The White House announced a 2-week ceasefire with Iran, but Israel reportedly wants the conflict to continue for at least another month.

White House announces 2-week ceasefire with Iran, but Israel reportedly wants conflict to continue for at least another month. Geopolitical tensions could impact oil markets. 🚨

14 views1 rt1 likesER:0.2039RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FactPoint387,665 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Iran has agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire with the United States and Israel, pausing hostilities.

Iran has agreed to a temporary two week ceasefire with the United States and Israel, marking a pause in escalating hostilities after weeks of conflict. https://t.co/qyJAVOeO1M

65 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FalconUpdatesHQverified150,188 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran are escalating, with the conflict showing no signs of slowing down, alongside an IDF operation in Gaza.

BREAKING 🚨 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Mohammad Ahmad Fayez Abu ‘Abda eliminated in an IDF operation in Gaza. 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 As US, Israel and Iran tensions escalate, the conflict shows no signs of slowing down. https://t.co/RfmjWnUZzT

20,761 views228 rt2,016 likesER:0.0438RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@anadoluagencyverified280,611 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

A timeline of events for April 6 includes Iran claiming to shoot down aircraft in Isfahan, Trump stating an Iran deal is possible by Tuesday, and Russia evacuating personnel from an Iranian nuclear power plant.

🗓️ April 6 | Day 37 — Iran–Israel–US War Timeline ➔ Iran claims shooting down aircraft in Isfahan ➔ Trump says Iran deal possible by Tuesday ➔ Russia evacuates personnel from Iranian nuclear power plant https://t.co/EqqeTNa4Fh

1,145 views2 rt9 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Shubham21643520verified112 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Multiple missile impacts are reported across Israel, with aerial activity intensifying and the situation escalating rapidly.

🚨 JUST IN: Multiple missile impacts reported across Israel as aerial activity intensifies. Situation escalating rapidly. 🔥 #Iran #Israel #Breaking #War #Conflict #MiddleEast #Update https://t.co/QXvCi41pJV

2,296 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:20.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@grokverified8,522,702 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Israel has warned the US that its ballistic missile interceptor stocks are critically low amid the Iran conflict, according to Semafor.

@cbjones1943 No, that's not accurate based on available reports. Israel has warned the US that *Israel's* ballistic missile interceptor stocks are critically low amid the Iran conflict (per Semafor and multiple outlets like JPost/Yahoo Finance from mid-March). No statements from Israel claim the US overestimated its own missile numbers or inventories from any sources. If this refers to a specific ...

13 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ians_india159,153 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

A foreign policy expert was asked about India's balanced stance in the Iran-US-Israel conflict.

Delhi: On being asked has India maintained a balanced stance in the Iran–US–Israel conflict while keeping ties with all sides, Foreign Policy Expert and Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd) says, "See, when the conflict first started, the stand that India took was questioned by many, and in several instances, India found itself on the backfoot. In par...

110 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ILRedAlertverified72,425 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Russia expressed concern over the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, highlighting strikes on various targets.

Russia expressed concern over the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, highlighting strikes on civilian infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and diplomatic missions. The ministry warned the situation threatens regional stability, global energy and food security.

4,556 views5 rt21 likesER:0.0017RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Terror_Alarmverified253,455 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The user analyzes US interest in Iran as focused on oil resources, while Israel seeks a different outcome.

🚨🇮🇱🇺🇸 U.S. interest in Iran appears focused on securing oil resources - to the point that anyone offering free oil could potentially lead the country. In contrast, Israel seeks a different outcome: a normalized Iranian regime that stops fueling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through proxies and allows Iranians the freedom to choose their own leaders.

14,818 views6 rt80 likesER:0.0008RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@VladimierPutinverified61,335 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The long-simmering tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated into an open conflict in recent weeks.

The Escalating Conflict Between Iran and Israel: The Role of the United States 🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 In recent weeks, the long-simmering tensions between Iran and Israel have erupted into an open conflict. Iranian missile strikes on Israeli territory, paired with retaliatory Israeli airstrikes, have set the region ablaze. Beyond the immediate destruction, the involvement of the United States has further i...

9,818 views4 rt27 likesER:0.0017RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TheStarKenyaverified2,411,698 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

The UN remains the most trusted mediator for the Iran-Israel-US conflict, but its dominant lead has diminished according to a survey in Kenya.

The United Nations remains the most trusted entity to mediate the complex conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, but it no longer holds a dominant lead. A survey conducted across Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan shows that 22.3% of respondents look to the UN as the primary broker for peace. #starinfographics

1,623 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osint613verified1,296,756 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Kuwaiti Journalist Ahmed Jarallah states Iran is the enemy, ruled by a 'sick Satan,' and the world will finish him off, with the U.S. entering the conflict due to Iran's bragging.

Ahmed Jarallah, Kuwaiti Journalist: "America is not our enemy, Iran is. Iran is ruled by a 'sick Satan,' and the world will finish him off. The U.S. entered the conflict because Iran bragged it would destroy America and Israel." https://t.co/YCxZJz87sA

200,065 views1,117 rt5,556 likesER:0.0215RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Conflict_Radarverified80,758 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Several individuals were arrested in Israel for manufacturing explosives at Iran's request.

NEW: Several arrested in Israel for manufacturing explosives at the request of Iran

5,979 views11 rt116 likesER:0.0042RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AKDay89verified6,543 flwQ:2/5newsneutral

The tweet recalls past predictions from Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson regarding a potential US-Iran war.

Last year Ben Shapiro was claiming "100% certitude" that the U.S. wouldn't bomb Iran even if Israel started a war. Tucker Carlson meanwhile was warning that we were headed toward a disastrous war with Iran that could widen into a global conflict. Who was right?

11,399 views44 rt293 likesER:0.1793RR:1.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SubboorAhmadverified139,522 flwQ:2/5analysisneutral

The user believes Israel and American leadership failed in their objective against Iran, but suggests a future restart of conflict.

This was the objective of Israel and American leadership They wanted to do to Iran what they did to Iraq They failed, there is no way to spin their loss as a win, the Epstein class will restart another conflict soon to distract people from their vile crimes https://t.co/OHCZAGieKA

780 views8 rt29 likesER:0.0014RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (9)

RETAIL@EuroPostAgency18,511 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Israel has ended its offensive in Iran, with a ceasefire in effect, but maintains readiness and continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel Ends Offensive in Iran, Maintains Multi-Front Readiness and Lebanon Campaign Military says ceasefire with Iran is in effect while operations against Hezbollah persist, with forces on high alert for any violations #EuroPost https://t.co/P0ViAr0ER3

21 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Qnewsegy3,131 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has unveiled a 10-point plan aimed at ending its conflict with the US and Israel.

#Iran unveils 10-point plan aimed at ending its conflict with US, Israel #Q_News https://t.co/7WbspPG47K

14 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@thetimepress_verified173 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra projects GDP growth amid global recovery 'post US-Israel-Iran conflict'.

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25% with neutral stance in latest monetary policy. Governor Sanjay Malhotra projects GDP growth at 7.6% amid global recovery post US-Israel-Iran conflict, cautions on energy prices from Strait of Hormuz disruptions. CPI inflation seen at 4.6%. #RBI #MonetaryPolicy #RepoRate #SanjayMalhotra #IndianEconomy #GDPGrowth #Inflation #StraitOfHormuz

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Rudro2000550 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

A ceasefire on the Iran war is reported, with both Trump and Iran wanting an exit, but Israel reluctantly accepting and vowing to continue.

#Ceasefire on #Iran war is a huge relief for the world. Make no mistake, both #Trump and Iran wanted an exit. But with #Israel seemingly reluctantly accepting the ceasefire and vowing to continue the conflict in #Lebanon, is there a twist in the tale? https://t.co/hE73I9nLMW

140 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@sibinpot85 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

A US-Israel-Iran ceasefire is expected to release paused demand in Dubai real estate, as sentiment recovers after the conflict.

The US–Israel–Iran ceasefire will likely do one thing for Dubai real estate: release paused demand. During the conflict: buyers waited transactions slowed But sellers didn’t panic. Now sentiment returns → buyers move faster. In this market: fundamentals beat discounts.

25 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@vanhoa22723,626 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran continues strikes on Israel, with potential for further escalation, and reportedly believes it is winning the conflict.

🚨BREAKING:⚡Iran continues STRIKES on Israel Iran's regime escalation may continue Before cutting off direct diplomacy with the United States, Iran told Pakistan it believes it is winning the conflict and claimed it still holds 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones in its arsenal. https://t.co/VnglYL89Ww

81 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@evgenystalin53154 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user suggests uniting NATO and the EU to control the Strait of Hormuz 'after the conflict with Iran'.

@VP @PM_ViktorOrban You need to unite NATO and the EU, especially after the conflict with Iran. If you negotiate correctly, you can control the Strait of Hormuz and make the US a truly strong state. The main thing is to offer Iran a chance to split Israel with all its top brass.

24 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TumorroHQverified2 flwQ:3/5analysisbullish

The 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?' market has seen significant capital inflow, with the price increasing by 53¢ in 24 hours and $4.9M traded.

Capital is piling into Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? +53¢ in 24h $4.9M traded in 24h https://t.co/YdCC6sSQoL

4 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:2.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Justik_solverified111 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

A whale placed a $19,209 buy order on 'No' for the 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?' market.

🐋 Polymarket Alert - Whale Order 📊 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? 🟢 BUY ("No") $19,209 for 36¢ 👤 novv25 🟡 Medium Impact 🔗 Market: https://t.co/5sOFgqLzEZ 🔗 Profile: https://t.co/NiFdvkjFOY #PredictionMarkets

13 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (7)

RETAIL@A5266Z69 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Pakistan played a constructive role in easing tensions and promoting dialogue between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Pakistan played a constructive role in easing tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, helping promote dialogue and prevent further escalation. Its efforts reflect a strong commitment to peace, stability, and diplomatic solutions over conflict.#PeaceForTheWorld https://t.co/yEsuaOFwM6

8 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Belza64176 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The Gulf states' dependence on seawater desalination plants limits their ability to engage in open conflict.

@alfreddaluya @KeyBoar42538896 @sentdefender The Gulf states are so dependent on their seawater desalination plants that they cannot engage in any open conflict without risking immediate and irreparable defeat. They know this well, and that is why they have not reacted against Iran. So, when it comes to Israel...

5 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@cneder_verified35 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user criticizes the premise that Iran 'won' the US-Israel-Iran conflict, suggesting it's a debatable framing.

@MarioNawfal Mario, starting from the premise that Iran "won" the US-Israel-Iran conflict is a highly selective and debatable framing—you really seam like an Iranian or Chinese state media proxies commentator that emphasize narrative over net strategic outcomes. That Hezbollah and China came out stronger? You are delusional! China just lost another cheap oil source like Venezuela. And Hezbollah ha...

108 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:3.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@HolyoakeJ14576verified1,700 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user states Israel's intent is the eradication of Hamas, Iran's proxy in Gaza.

@TrentFargox6sx @KrondstadtBaker @EFischberger Israel has never said anything about its intent other than the eradication of Iran's proxy in Gaza, which is Hamas. Why on earth do you think that Iran's terrorist theocratic leaders have all been killed in the current conflict. Deal with Iran and render it powerless and you deal with what remains of its terrorist proxies Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in...

18 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@raz_sauber_verified11,707 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user argues that preventing a nuclear Iran is not without detriment and describes the conflict as against a 'murderous Shiite regime'.

@FixinYourUglies @EdKrassen How is preventing a nuclear Iran “not at the detriment of anyone else”? This isn’t a border dispute with Iran. It’s a conflict between a murderous Shiite regime that openly seeks to destroy Israel, and a country that simply wants to keep living.

73 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@dbm_0098 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user believes Israel won the conflict, citing Hezbollah's weakness, Hamas's near defeat, and Khomeini's absence, suggesting Iran did not win.

@Shekar30922646 @TheLegateIN Actually, Israel won this conflict. Hezbollah is weak, Hamas is almost gone and now Khomeini is gone. Iran didn't win.

13 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.6Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Escaping1984verified2,780 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

The user blames Israel and 'Zionist friends' for the conflict with Iran.

@krassenstein It may work out in the end... But you have nobody to blame but Israel and all your Zionist friends! In fact, the only reason we even have this inane conflict with Iran, is literally the genocidal expansionist policies of Israel, you barely say SHIT about! Get a mirror It's 🫵 https://t.co/FUKbm6aDbW

5,113 views6 rt51 likesER:0.0615RR:1.8Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 447,274.62 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73	Yes	0.1664	0.5235	285,109.18	+$224,701.37
2	0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df	Yes	0.0281	0.5235	230,243.63	+$168,752.02
3	0xec1fe51724fefc0b238514e88837dbcaa07bd325	Yes	0.0521	0.5235	192,241.89	+$90,620.71
4	0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	Yes	0.0773	0.5235	9,635.75	+$81,351.24
5	0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d	Yes	0.0680	0.5235	0.01	+$68,084.21
6	0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825	Yes	0.3723	0.5235	0	+$62,584.1
7	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	Yes	0.1148	0.5235	15,001.02	+$61,547.54
8	0x72e4daa9b93fd3786f231c3b73c1bdbc4c48740a	Yes	0.4889	0.5235	447,274.62	+$42,404.84
9	0x1d16b887703318582321c3c96687f565919ee798	Yes	0.0113	0.5235	0	+$24,343.58
10	0x88e2b1b6c7847828fc91af43aba2fee07fb07489	Yes	0.3249	0.5235	79,999.53	+$19,479.82