Trade Report :

A $1,038,960 Bet Says Yes to US Forces Entering Iran

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

onekey09 (0x45b39e1f71e47fd4afe4b988ffad690b644735bc)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$1,038,960

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-08 05:29:31 ET

Time

onekey09 placed $1,038,960 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $218,502,353.412, 24h volume $98,012,624.508, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $1,038,960 becomes $1,040,000 (profit $1,040)
If wrong, loses $1,038,960

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just bet $1,038,960 on 'US forces entered Iran: Yes' for a $1,040 profit. This isn't trading; it's a Giga-Chad acting as exit liquidity for smart money who bought at $0.54 and laughed all the way to the bank.

The market implies 'Yes' is 99.9% certain. Our whale is playing 'chicken' with the oracle, risking a million dollars on the semantic difference between a SEAL team and a CIA operative. Remember Title 10 vs. Title 50? That's a $1,038,960 technicality waiting to happen.

Twitter screams de-escalation, but this whale is betting on a *past* event. They're playing archaeologist, not prophet. This isn't a trade; it's a highly leveraged bet against resolution rule ambiguity. A bad trade. Pure, unadulterated hubris for a pittance.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$218,502,353.412

24h Volume

$98,012,624.508

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes, such as military or humanitarian missions, by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific event does not occur, excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomatic entries, or accidental entries.

Timeline

The key timeline is the listed date (ET), which serves as the deadline for the qualifying event to occur.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting from various news sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules

Common Mistakes

People might misunderstand that only deliberate entry into Iran's land territory for operational purposes counts, excluding air/sea entry, intelligence, contractors, diplomatic visits, or accidental entries like shot-down pilots.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US troops Iran

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The "US forces enter Iran by...?" market just got a temporary stay of execution. A 14-day ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, means US forces hit the pause button. Oil prices cratered 15%+. Short-term "No" bets are printing money like a broken ATM.

But don't pop the champagne just yet. This isn't peace, it's a "timeout." Trump himself warned he could "go right back to it very easily." The core issues? Still festering like a bad take on Twitter.

Crucially, Israel says the ceasefire *doesn't* apply to Lebanon. That's not a loophole; it's a gaping maw for chaos. If those Friday talks between Vance and Ghalibaf go south, this whole flimsy truce could collapse faster than a crypto scam.

Whales betting "No" on the *broader conflict ending* by April 7 are playing 3D chess. While immediate "Yes" is dead, smart money eyes longer-term "Yes" bets at today's depressed odds. The market is high on hopium, but this "peace" is built on quicksand.

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@owenjonesjournoverified1,083,251 flwQ:5/5analysisbearish

Trump has accepted Iran's 10-point plan as a "workable basis on which to negotiate," which is interpreted as a strategic defeat for the US.

This is Iran's 10 point plan - which Trump has accepted as "a workable basis on which to negotiate." Have no doubt: This is the biggest strategic defeat suffered by the US since its emergence as a superpower. https://t.co/B3b0Gn66L1

1,449,081 views4,965 rt15,968 likesER:0.1064RR:1.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranArmyMediaverified54,258 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

The US has accepted Iran's 10-point conditions, including non-aggression, continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and acceptance of enrichment.

Iran's 10-point conditions that the US has accepted: The US is fundamentally committed to: 🔹 Non-aggression 🔹 Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz 🔹 Acceptance of enrichment 🔹 Lifting all primary sanctions 🔹 Lifting all secondary sanctions 🔹 Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 🔹 Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions 🔹 Payment of...

859,115 views2,923 rt12,205 likesER:1.3024RR:15.8Source: X/Twitter

KOL@spectatorindexverified3,255,534 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Germany's Chancellor and UK PM welcomed a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.

BREAKING: Germany's Chancellor and UK PM welcome two-week ceasefire between US and Iran

86,522 views135 rt1,435 likesER:0.0013RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,659,434 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Countries are urging full commitment to the two-week ceasefire and praising Pakistan for facilitating the truce.

Countries urge full commitment to two-week ceasefire, praise Pakistan for role in facilitating truce. https://t.co/JBOqRJR049

30,418 views228 rt920 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ILRedAlertverified72,427 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iraq will reopen its airspace starting Wednesday following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Iraq will reopen its airspace starting Wednesday following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, the country’s Civil Aviation Authority said.

4,331 views3 rt27 likesER:0.0012RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,921 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Israel backed the ceasefire between the US and Iran but clarified it does not extend to Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continue.

Israel has backed a ceasefire between the US and Iran but made clear it does not extend to Lebanon. Al Jazeera’s Heidi Pett reports that as Israeli strikes continue, residents remain wary after repeated violations of past ceasefires and ongoing displacement. https://t.co/zozeIifcWk

18,013 views50 rt128 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,921 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's Ghalibaf and the US's Vance are expected to hold talks in Islamabad on Friday.

BREAKING: Iran's Ghalibaf, US's Vance expected at Islamabad talks on Friday 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/HJtqUSKHWT https://t.co/IuSbEiBkDx

65,024 views294 rt1,025 likesER:0.0027RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DrEliDavidverified854,263 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

Iran and the US have not agreed on core issues like nuclear, ballistic missiles, or sanctions, and the current agreement is merely to avoid Trump's deadline.

My two cents: Iran and the US haven't agreed on anything, certainly not on any core issue (nuclear, ballistic missiles, sanctions, etc.). Neither side wanted to trigger Trump's deadline, so they agreed to extend it by two weeks. That was the only "agreement" made.

149,742 views490 rt3,649 likesER:0.0157RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,909,209 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

US oil prices crashed over 15% following the ceasefire with Iran.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US oil prices crash over 15% following ceasefire with Iran. https://t.co/ENgmnjdeKC

307,853 views460 rt3,510 likesER:0.0033RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@brhodesverified513,778 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

The New York Times reported that Netanyahu convinced Trump the Iranian regime would fall and the US could end the nuclear program, but the IRGC-dominated regime and nuclear program are still in place.

According to NYT, Bibi convinced Trump the regime would fall and the US could end the nuclear program. Under current terms, IRGC-dominated regime in place, nuclear program ongoing, Iran's strategic position and revenue sources enhanced at huge cost to Americans.

247,287 views1,082 rt4,933 likesER:0.0517RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@GHANANEWSAGENCY19,741 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Fitch Solutions predicts Ghana's economy will remain relatively shielded from the US/Iran conflict.

Ghana’s economy to remain relatively shielded from US/Iran conflict- Fitch Solutions Read more: https://t.co/zctgVMCHno #GNA #GhanaNewsAgency #GhanaNews https://t.co/5LUYCnDFVr

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@onejansiverified21 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pope Leo welcomed the two-week ceasefire in the war on Iran, having previously condemned Trump's threats.

Pope Leo has welcomed the two-week ceasefire in the war on Iran with “great satisfaction”, a day after he condemned US President Trump’s threats against Iran’s population as “unacceptable”, Reuters reports.

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Justik_solverified111 flwQ:3/5analysisbullish

A whale placed a $19,209 "No" order on the Polymarket "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?" market, indicating a belief the conflict will continue past that date.

🐋 Polymarket Alert - Whale Order 📊 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? 🟢 BUY ("No") $19,209 for 36¢ 👤 novv25 🟡 Medium Impact 🔗 Market: https://t.co/5sOFgqLzEZ 🔗 Profile: https://t.co/NiFdvkjFOY #PredictionMarkets

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@PatriarchBowser125 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran has accepted the US's 15 points as a basis for negotiation.

@kmh @illuminatithot1 @JimmySecUK Iran has accepted US 15 points as basis too.

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@soulofaarmyverified1,391 flwQ:3/5firsthandbullish

36 people were arrested in Ardabil and 6 in North Khorasan, Iran, without guilt, within the last 24 hours, prompting a plea for intervention.

@POTUS & @netanyahu They arrested 36 people in Ardabil and 6 people in North Khorasan without any guilt. This happened just today, less than 24 hours have passed. If you don't save the people of Iran now, they will massacre us all, while no one has access to the internet. #IranMassacre‌ #KingRezaPahlavi‌ForIran

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@waseemshahzaad1,546 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pakistan mediated a 14-day ceasefire between the US and Iran, seen as a step toward de-escalation.

A significant #milestone in international relations: #Pakistan 🇵🇰mediates a 14-day #ceasefire between the #US 🇺🇸 and #Iran 🇮🇷. A vital step toward de-escalation and a testament to the power of #diplomacy in West Asia and Middle East. #Pakistanzindabad

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@dailybritainonxverified14,715 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Keir Starmer welcomed the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US and is discussing diplomatic efforts with Gulf leaders.

Keir Starmer has welcomed the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US as he travelled to meet with leaders of countries in the Gulf. The prime minister is expected to "discuss diplomatic efforts to support and uphold the ceasefire", according to No 10. He will return to the UK on Friday. The ceasefire comes after Donald Trump threatened "a whole civilisation will die" if Iran did not agree t...

4 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FreeBeeWon125 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Iran's Mullahs are dead, and the country is likely run by the IRGC.

@mishtal @karenievers @BBCNews Absolutely, so many are blinded by hatred for Trump that they can’t see simple facts. Mullahs are dead. Iran is likely run by IRGC, whose top commanders are almost all gone. They also do not appear to be as ideological as was touted, their kids live in bikinis in US.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@danzington91 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

US taxpayer money is being spent, and rebuilding will likely happen annually due to Iran's actions.

@harryjsisson A huge amount of US taxpayers' money was spent, and this will probably happen annually now, because everything is constantly being rebuilt by Iran.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Karen80168863090 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The US 2-week "Ceasefire" is perceived as a trap for Iran.

@IRanMediaco What are they waiting for you know this full of bull? US 2 Week "Ceasefire" is ANOTHER Trap For Iran https://t.co/EPNqsDcuAi

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0015	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9985	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9985	620,990.26	+$235,234.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0015	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9985	133,947.76	+$50,496.71
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9985	175,760.61	+$48,041.97
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9985	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9985	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9985	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9985	0	+$35,796.86