Someone Just Bet $160,212: US x Iran Ceasefire Is Coming
rdba placed $160,212.47 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $58,130,823.684, 24h volume $40,787,717.892, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996
If correct, $160,212.47 becomes $160,856.47 (profit $644)
If wrong, loses $160,212
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some whale just dropped $160,212 on a US x Iran ceasefire "Yes" at 99.6% odds. For a measly $644 profit.
That's like risking your entire house to pick up a nickel. The market offers a 0.4% return. Are you *sure* you want to play "chicken" with a nuclear-adjacent standoff for that?
Real OGs bought "Yes" at $0.02, now cashing out. You? You're providing exit liquidity for their yacht money.
And that "ceasefire"? No defined start time. Israel's still throwing missiles. The oracle might just say "No," because "halt in engagement" means *halt*, not "we're thinking about halting."
This isn't yield farming. This is donating $160,212 to the "How Not To Trade" fund. Absolute clown show. The only thing you're guaranteed is a lesson in geopolitical tail risk.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if an official, publicly announced, and mutually agreed ceasefire agreement halting direct military engagement between the United States and Iran is reached by the deadline. It resolves to "No" if such an agreement, confirmed by both governments or overwhelming media consensus, is not reached by then.
The market resolves based on whether an official ceasefire agreement is reached by the specified deadline, which is 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. The effective date of the ceasefire itself does not matter, only the date the agreement is reached.
The outcome will be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments, or by an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming such an agreement.
Not specified in the rules.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace
Relevant tweets: 38
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"Peace in our time," they crowed, as US-Iran agreed to a 2-week ceasefire. Oil plunged, stocks soared. A classic "sell the news" frenzy. But hold your horses, market. This isn't peace, it's a 2-week Tinder date with an expiration.
The biggest tell? Israel. @BRICSinfo screams they're in; @BBCBreaking whispers they're still raining missiles on Tehran. A "ceasefire" where two major players are still at it? That’s not a ceasefire, that's a *pause* button, pressed by a toddler.
No start time? That's not a peace deal, it's a prediction market resolution nightmare. Trump's "go right back to it, very easily" hangs like a sword of Damocles. Whales know this. They're eyeing that sub-$100 oil, not as a permanent dip, but a buying opportunity for the inevitable chaos. Don't be the sucker who buys the "peace" narrative.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (1)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 212,404.57 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9955 | 212,404.57 | +$193,107.01 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9955 | 155,118.78 | +$158,442.93 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |