A $475,633 Bet Says No to US x Iran Ceasefire by Its Deadline
Fernandoinfante placed $475,633.49 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $55,288,283.813, 24h volume $38,018,885.147, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996
If correct, $475,633.49 becomes $477,544.49 (profit $1,911)
If wrong, loses $475,633
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just plunged $475,633 into the 'US x Iran ceasefire' market, betting on 'Yes' at 99.6% odds for a grand total of $1,911 profit. My God. You're risking an entire yacht for a single can of Red Bull.
This isn't trading; it's a philanthropic donation to early 'Yes' holders who bought when prices were $0.02. They're now cashing out their 5,000% gains, and you're providing the exit liquidity.
The resolution rules demand a "mutually agreed" halt. But Iran? They're reportedly saying "No." This isn't a ceasefire; it's a unilateral American press release. Buying this now is like showing up to a "mutual" wedding where only one person showed up.
This isn't picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. It's willingly laying down on the tracks for 0.4% yield. Enjoy the geopolitical concrete shoes.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the deadline, with both governments publicly confirming it or an overwhelming consensus of media reporting it. It resolves "No" if such an official, mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement is not publicly confirmed by the deadline.
The deadline for an official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether an agreement is confirmed by this specific time.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official public statements from the United States and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible news reports confirming an agreement will also be sufficient.
Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, humanitarian pauses, or agreements for future talks without a firm commitment to stop fighting do not count. A broader peace deal only counts if it includes a clear, dated halt to military engagement.
People might misunderstand that an agreement must be publicly confirmed by both sides or widely reported by media, not just informally discussed or unilaterally announced. It's also easy to confuse a temporary pause or future negotiation plans with a definitive, mutually agreed halt to fighting.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US ceasefire, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Trump declared a "ceasefire," nuking oil to $94 and sending stocks sky-high. Whales are piling into "Yes" like it’s 2008 and Lehman's still standing. But pump the brakes, market tourists. This isn't peace; it's a diplomatic mirage.
Iran *reportedly rejects* the 2-week pause, demanding a permanent end. Missiles from Iran and Yemen are *still hitting Israel* – moments after the announcement. Israel's shelling Lebanon, directly contradicting Pakistan's "everywhere" claim.
This isn't a ceasefire. It's Schrödinger's Cat of diplomacy, simultaneously "on" and "off." The market’s pricing a done deal, but the fine print, if it exists, is written in disappearing ink.
Fade the FOMO. Check resolution rules. Buying "No" at inflated prices might be your sharpest play before this fragile house of cards collapses.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (4)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (1)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 212,404.57 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9965 | 212,404.57 | +$193,319.41 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9965 | 155,118.78 | +$158,598.05 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |