$211,663 Bet: US Iran Ceasefire Will Happen — Polymarket
DonaldinhoTrumpito placed $211,663.1 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $58,810,013.626, 24h volume $41,204,796.61, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997
If correct, $211,663.1 becomes $212,300.1 (profit $637)
If wrong, loses $211,663
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some whale just dropped $211,663 on "US x Iran ceasefire" at 99.7% for a paltry $637 profit. They think they're "picking up pennies," yield farming a "risk-free" 0.3% on a 14-day truce.
Early smart money already harvested their massive alpha, selling to folks like this. Our whale is betting on a headline, not the fine print. A "temporary" 14-day ceasefire with Israel still shelling Lebanon? That's not an "official ceasefire," that's a *nap* during a bar fight.
Polymarket's oracle isn't a headline bot, it's a ruthless contract lawyer. If "direct military engagement" includes proxies, or "temporary" isn't "official," this whale just bought a $211,663 ticket to zero. For $637, they're playing oracle roulette. This isn't trading. It's gambling with a fancy spreadsheet.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
Resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a mutual halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline, confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming consensus of credible media. It resolves "No" if such a formal, public, and mutual agreement is not reached by the deadline, excluding informal understandings or temporary pauses.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET; the market will resolve based on whether this agreement is in place by then. The market can resolve "Yes" even if the ceasefire itself takes effect after this resolution date.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments, or alternatively, by an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming the agreement.
The market will resolve "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or humanitarian pauses will not count as an official ceasefire.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 39
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The US-Iran ceasefire just hit the markets like a meteor. Oil prices cratered 15%, crypto added $120B. Polymarket whales cashed out 3,500% gains, but don't mistake this 2-week truce for a peace treaty. It’s a temporary Tinder swipe, not a marriage.
Pakistan's PM claims "Lebanon and elsewhere" are included. Israel’s PM Office screams, "Does not include Lebanon," then shells Baraachit. This isn't "he said, she said," it's Schrödinger's Ceasefire: both true and false until the next missile launch.
"Friday talks" are the next cliffhanger. The market has priced in perfection, ignoring this gaping Lebanon Loophole. Fade the euphoria. Go long oil at these discounts. Bet NO on any "permanent peace" fantasy. This isn't peace; it's a very expensive coffee break.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (4)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 212,404.57 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9965 | 212,404.57 | +$193,319.41 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9965 | 155,118.78 | +$158,598.05 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |