Trade Report : 

US-Iran Ceasefire Is A Lock: $143,673 Bet on Polymarket

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
hhhhhhhllll.   (0x0f66c5891da180d4620a1838d408e9774b16a9d0)
PolyMarket : US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$143,672.94
Trade Amount
BUY Yes
Trade Side
0.999
Entry Price
Time

hhhhhhhllll. placed $143,672.94 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $23,807,668.917, 24h volume $7,427,754.929, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

No
0.4%
Yes
99.7%

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Collecting...

Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →

Total Volume
$23,807,668.917
24h Volume
$7,427,754.929
Heat
Very Hot
End Date
Not specified
Created
2026-02-28
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran publicly announce and mutually agree to halt direct military engagement by the specified date and time. It resolves "No" if no such official, mutually agreed ceasefire is confirmed by the deadline.

Timeline

The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether this agreement is confirmed by this specific time.

Source

The resolution will primarily rely on official statements from the US and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.

Special Cases

The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect later. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks do not qualify as an official ceasefire.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

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Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 196,161.56 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010Yes0.15520.99950+$217,033.86
20xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530feYes0.17000.99950+$194,823.14
30x94a428cfa4f84b264e01f70d93d02bc96cb36356Yes0.19470.9995196,161.56+$157,864.15
40xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6dYes0.18890.99950+$129,545.55
50xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4bYes0.19690.9995133,630.41+$112,187.09
60xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784Yes0.29390.9995150,804.63+$106,822.08
70x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177Yes0.21260.9995126,117.12+$104,240
80x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1Yes0.23060.9995123,496.5+$97,417.71
90x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9Yes0.14900.99950+$94,189.23
100x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8dfYes0.18170.999580,228.02+$88,444.21
99.9% Sure: US Forces Will Enter Iran, Per $1.59M Bet
A $75,923 Bet Says Yes to US x Iran Ceasefire Prediction