US-Iran Ceasefire Is A Lock: $143,673 Bet on Polymarket
hhhhhhhllll. placed $143,672.94 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $23,807,668.917, 24h volume $7,427,754.929, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Collecting...
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran publicly announce and mutually agree to halt direct military engagement by the specified date and time. It resolves "No" if no such official, mutually agreed ceasefire is confirmed by the deadline.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether this agreement is confirmed by this specific time.
The resolution will primarily rely on official statements from the US and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.
The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect later. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks do not qualify as an official ceasefire.
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Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 196,161.56 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.1552 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$217,033.86 |
| 2 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.1700 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$194,823.14 |
| 3 | 0x94a428cfa4f84b264e01f70d93d02bc96cb36356 | Yes | 0.1947 | 0.9995 | 196,161.56 | +$157,864.15 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.1889 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$129,545.55 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.1969 | 0.9995 | 133,630.41 | +$112,187.09 |
| 6 | 0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784 | Yes | 0.2939 | 0.9995 | 150,804.63 | +$106,822.08 |
| 7 | 0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177 | Yes | 0.2126 | 0.9995 | 126,117.12 | +$104,240 |
| 8 | 0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1 | Yes | 0.2306 | 0.9995 | 123,496.5 | +$97,417.71 |
| 9 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.1490 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$94,189.23 |
| 10 | 0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df | Yes | 0.1817 | 0.9995 | 80,228.02 | +$88,444.21 |