Trade Report :

99.9% Sure: US Forces Will Enter Iran, Per $1.59M Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

0x7e6b15577d367a9f885f782b1c6c46556a95e3c5

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$1,591,886.36

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-07 21:27:51 ET

Time

0x7e6b15577d367a9f885f782b1c6c46556a95e3c5 placed $1,591,886.36 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $180,377,329.779, 24h volume $69,603,416.923, heat level: Very Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $1,591,886.36 becomes $1,593,480.36 (profit $1,594)
If wrong, loses $1,591,886

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just dropped $1,591,886 on "US forces enter Iran" to pocket a measly $1,594. Risk/reward? A stunning 0.0:1.

This isn't a bet; it's a glorified stablecoin parking lot. Our whale is Polymarket's ATM, providing exit liquidity for smart money who already cashed out their early "Yes" positions. They're convinced the event *already happened*, ignoring all that ceasefire noise.

But here’s the kicker: the rules hinge on "military special ops" vs. "intelligence operatives." One semantic hair-split by the oracle, and $1.59M evaporates faster than a crypto influencer's gains. Other whales made millions entering at $0.54. This guy is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. An average-to-poor trade, risking a fortune on a dictionary definition. Utter madness.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$180,377,329.779

24h Volume

$69,603,416.923

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding entries by sea, air, intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, or for diplomatic reasons.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events that occur up to a specific listed date, which is understood in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The final resolution will be based on a broad agreement among various trustworthy news sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly believe that entry into Iran's air or sea territory, accidental entry, or entry by non-military personnel like contractors or intelligence operatives would qualify. They might also misinterpret diplomatic visits by high-ranking officials as qualifying.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US military Iran

Relevant tweets: 36

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Whales are dumping short-term "YES" on "US forces enter Iran." A 2-week ceasefire? Trump’s playing nice. North Korea's waving nukes. It's a textbook "kick-the-can" moment.

But don't get fooled by this Potemkin peace. Iran launched missiles 2 hours post-agreement. Israel didn't sign the deal; they're the uninvited guest still bombing. Pakistan blames Israel for spoiling talks.

Iran’s "10-point plan" victory? That’s domestic propaganda, not diplomacy. The fundamental disagreements? Unresolved.

This "ceasefire" is a fragile political timeout.

Smart money: Exit short-term "YES" for deadlines within 14 days. But for deadlines *after* this charade? Buy cheap "YES" shares. The scorpion and the frog eventually do what they do.

KOL — High Relevance (1)

KOL@World_Affairs11verified232,374 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

North Korea threatens to use nuclear weapons against the US if the US attacks Iran.

BREAKING: North Korea says it will use nuclear weapon against the US if it attacks Iran. if true there will be world war III https://t.co/up0BQOKpC3

919,524 views1,268 rt5,880 likesER:0.1344RR:4.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,908,963 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which includes completely reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire, completely reopening Strait of Hormuz.

538,968 views1,060 rt9,049 likesER:0.0077RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirSona07verified56,692 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran officially accepted a two-week ceasefire with the US and Israel.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran officially accepts 2-week ceasefire with US and Israel.

540 views1 rt9 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,409 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US President Donald Trump announced an agreement to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks. https://t.co/1LAjUm9F8o

314,422 views946 rt2,746 likesER:0.0086RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@lookonchainverified685,320 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

A trader opened a 20x long on Brent oil, but the US-Iran ceasefire caused oil to plunge, resulting in losses for the trader.

Trader 0xfe46 created a new wallet 12 hours ago and deposited 3M $USDC into Hyperliquid to open a 20x long on 90,001 xyz:BRENTOIL. As the US–Iran ceasefire sent #oil plunging, the trader is now down $1.4M, with a liquidation price of $77.91. https://t.co/7ToDWXoaaO https://t.co/xQ8jeul4iM

41 views1 rt2 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranArmyMediaverified45,007 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran claims the US has accepted its 10-point conditions, including non-aggression, Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and acceptance of enrichment.

Iran's 10-point conditions that the US has accepted: The US is fundamentally committed to: 🔹 Non-aggression 🔹 Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz 🔹 Acceptance of enrichment 🔹 Lifting all primary sanctions 🔹 Lifting all secondary sanctions 🔹 Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 🔹 Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions 🔹 Payment of...

387,714 views1,152 rt4,978 likesER:0.6225RR:8.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL@KobeissiLetterverified1,666,360 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran claims the US has been 'forced' to accept its 10-point plan, which includes a commitment to non-aggression and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 7. Termination of all Board of Governors re...

823,764 views1,507 rt8,541 likesER:0.0232RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@gulf_newsverified1,532,614 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Pakistan's Prime Minister states that the US-Iran ceasefire covers 'everywhere,' including Lebanon.

Pakistan PM says US-Iran ceasefire covers 'everywhere' including Lebanon Live updates: https://t.co/G6d8NNKrtF https://t.co/3tEZ37EC81

5,107 views48 rt224 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RippleXrpieverified458,395 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

President Trump stated that Germany is not supporting America in the conflict with Iran and would have leaked information if he had shared it.

🇩🇪 GERMANY STOPS SUPPORTING AMERICA! 🇺🇸 President Trump: “We rebuilt Germany, and now Germany tells us it’s not their war. If I would have told them about Iran, they would have leaked it.” https://t.co/6FYtuATIaf

17,563 views12 rt175 likesER:0.0009RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,409 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Ebrahim Zolfaghari, an Iranian spokesperson, stated that attacks on US- and Israeli-linked targets would intensify.

Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, says attacks on US- and Israeli-linked targets would intensify and that Iran would deprive the US and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years. https://t.co/v53p9Yzgnr

503,597 views410 rt2,249 likesER:0.0041RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MOSSADilverified1,029,614 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran continues attacks on Israel and Gulf states, raising questions about the scope of the US-Iran ceasefire.

SHOULD THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT INCLUDE ISRAEL AND THE GULF STATES? Iran continues attacks on Israel and Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain—while neither the US nor Iran has clarified when the ceasefire takes effect, fueling ongoing instability. Does this not highlight the erratic nature and instability in leadership in Iran’s regime? Let us know your thoughts in ...

6,737 views32 rt95 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@midnightowl37333 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Israel fired at an aluminum plant, Iran responded, and a US-Iran ceasefire was struck during this period, suggesting renewed conflict.

@BRICSinfo Here we go… the countdown is back on. Israel fired at an aluminum plant right before the deadline and Iran responded to it. During this time a ceasefire was struck between the US and Iran. This is a huge moment for the US. Let’s 🇮🇱 have one on the chin.

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@tongerwolk7 flwQ:2/5newsneutral

The ceasefire deal was between the US and Iran, and Israel did not sign it.

@realMaalouf Israel didn't sign the deal. It was between the US and Iran

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@iAMYStifiEdLF1,553 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

Claims the US is at war with Iran due to the Department of Defense being renamed to a Department of War.

@covie_93 The US is at war with Iran because @SecWar renamed our U.S. DEFENSE Dept to a Dept of War. @SecWar is carrying out his fever dream with trillion$ of our taxpayer money....instead of taking care of We The People @realDonaldTrump put @secwar in his cabinet so they're both complicit

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FollowTheFigs2,361 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Suggests that if the US-Iran ceasefire is legitimate, the US should reduce its involvement and let Israel fight its own war.

@JesseBWatters If the ceasefire is legit between US and Iran then so be it...we've done enough for Israel. Let them fight their war.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@agtradertalkverified13,125 flwQ:2/5newsbearish

A ceasefire was agreed upon between the US and Iran.

The cease fire was between the US and Iran…moose out front

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@sec_trust1124 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Questions the gains from the war, citing billions of dollars and 13 soldiers' lives lost, and whether Iran is a bigger threat than North Korea.

@Milajoy What has the American gained from this war after billions of dollars and 13 soldiers’ lives? Is Iran a bigger threat to the US than North Korea?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@SirWinston85verified3,814 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Questions CNN's framing of a statement from Iran's Supreme National Security Council regarding US-Israel-Iran ceasefire talks.

@grok @RichardSau92050 @Angry_Staffer So just to confirm, CNN framed the statement as coming from Iran's Supreme National Security Council during recent US-Israel-Iran ceasefire talks, but it contradicted the later official Iranian release posted by Trump on Truth Social, correct?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Johnmer1924112334 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The US has its own issues with Iran, independent of Israel.

@A1_Be1ar_Bo1t Alot of assertion there about trump with 0 evidence. Believe it or not the US has our own issues with Iran regardless of Israel.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@PlebWon196 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The US and Israel are unlikely to accept Iran's 10-point conditions.

@write_diligent @esaagar Well, regardless of where one stands on if the US should or shouldn’t have struck Iran the 10 points are not going to be accepted by the US and especially Israel. Will the US go to the table to find a resolution? I believe so. But even a middle ground in this instance will need to favor the US. The Strait of Hormuz can’t stay closed long term, but there’s also a very real ...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JayHrndz21,231 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Claims the US suffered military losses including planes and bases, and Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.

@UltraDBCooper @raid532 @Remmy213 @ShaykhSulaiman @TheQuartering US got several planes dropped, got multiple military bases destroyed. billions in radar destroyed and Iran controls the Stait of Hormuz. What did the US gain?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0005	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9995	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9995	620,990.26	+$235,855.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0005	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9995	138,947.76	+$50,638.16
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9995	175,760.61	+$48,217.73
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9995	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9995	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9995	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9995	0	+$35,796.86