Trade Report :

99.9% Sure: US Forces Will Enter Iran, Per $999K Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

fin-tech (0xf1229f95edb566fa771f442469d18178106f6ea7)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$999,000

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-07 21:25:59 ET

Time

fin-tech placed $999,000 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $180,377,329.779, 24h volume $69,603,416.923, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $999,000 becomes $1,000,000 (profit $1,000)
If wrong, loses $999,000

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just dropped $999,000 on 'Yes' for US forces entering Iran, betting the war's already over, they just forgot to tell the oracle.

Risking $999,000 to net a grand $1,000? That's not trading; that's playing Russian roulette with a bazooka for a penny.

The *actual* smart money rode 'Yes' from $0.60 to $0.90+ and GONE. This whale? He's buying their scraps at $0.999. Not following, but feeding.

And the kicker: The resolution hinges on "Military vs. Intelligence." If it was a Title 50 op, not Title 10, that $999,000 vanishes faster than a politician's promise. Imagine losing a million over a bureaucratic footnote.

Twitter's buzzing about a ceasefire, pushing 'No' for *future* entry. Our whale's staring at the rearview mirror, ignoring the oncoming traffic.

This isn't yield farming; it's 'picking up pennies in front of a UMA-powered steamroller.' A truly **bad trade**. Catastrophic risk for negligible gain. Oof.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$180,377,329.779

24h Volume

$69,603,416.923

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational reasons by the specified date; otherwise, it resolves "No". This excludes intelligence operatives, contractors, diplomatic entries, and accidental entries like being shot down.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events occurring up to the specific date and time listed, in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The outcome will be decided based on what multiple trustworthy news sources generally agree upon.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly think entry into Iran's air or sea space counts, or that military contractors, intelligence operatives, or diplomatic visits qualify, but these are all explicitly excluded.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US military Iran

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The market’s chugging hopium on the 2-week US-Iran ceasefire. Bet "No" on US forces entering Iran short-term. Trump accepted Iran's 10-point plan; Kim Jong Un's nuclear mic drop further solidifies "No." This is "peace in our time" for now.

But don't get high on your own supply. Israel, the ultimate spoiler, wasn't invited to the party. They're still bombing, and Iran is still retaliating. This "proxy loophole" is the unpriced black swan. The $2M Hormuz toll booth is a flashpoint. Plus, the US/Iran "victory" narratives are pure gaslighting. Domestic blowback could shatter this fragile truce faster than you can say "World War III." Short-term "No" is a whale play. Long-term? Hold your breath, or your crypto.

KOL — High Relevance (7)

KOL@World_Affairs11verified232,382 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

North Korea has stated it will use nuclear weapons against the US if the US attacks Iran.

BREAKING: North Korea says it will use nuclear weapon against the US if it attacks Iran. if true there will be world war III https://t.co/up0BQOKpC3

921,191 views1,268 rt5,883 likesER:0.1344RR:4.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,451 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US President Donald Trump announced an agreement to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks. https://t.co/1LAjUm9F8o

314,383 views946 rt2,742 likesER:0.0086RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,451 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US President Donald Trump announced an agreement to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks. https://t.co/CIGvdQVWz9

114,212 views329 rt926 likesER:0.0030RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ggreenwaldverified2,394,988 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

The user argues that Trump's claim of victory regarding the Strait of Hormuz opening is misleading, as it was open before the Israeli/US attack and closed only in response.

The Big Victory that Trump points to here is that Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was completely open before Israel and the US attacked. It was closed only as a response to the war. So congrats on getting the Strait of Hormuz re-opened. Huge victory.

145,688 views476 rt3,445 likesER:0.0054RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,659,260 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Pakistan's FM Ishaq Dar blamed Israel for attacking Tehran during US-Iran ceasefire talks, spoiling Islamabad's mediation efforts.

Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar has blamed Israel for trying to spoil Islamabad’s efforts to facilitate ceasefire talks between the US and Iran by attacking Tehran when “both sides were in a stage to sit down.” 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/kw7SepY2ey https://t.co/OlQ4z3A0Hi

270,226 views2,753 rt8,692 likesER:0.0066RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ggreenwaldverified2,394,988 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

AP reports that the ceasefire allows Iran to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, sharing revenue with Oman, for reconstruction.

AP reports that the cease fire entitles Iran to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, split with Oman, and to use that money for reconstruction. (Prior to the Israeli/US attack, passage through the Strait was free). https://t.co/p4KxilJvhg https://t.co/S0TyeWE5If

41,393 views168 rt669 likesER:0.0017RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,451 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's FM Araghchi states that Iran agrees to the two-week ceasefire terms with the US if attacks against Iran are halted.

FM Araghchi says ‘if attacks against Iran are halted,’ then the country agrees to the terms of the two‑week ceasefire with the US, as announced by President Trump. Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall explains Tehran’s response and how the Strait of Hormuz would be opened under the deal. https://t.co/HjMyw1ws0s

32,927 views69 rt178 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@RealBababanarasverified160,808 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran launched missiles and drones towards Israel and the Middle East just two hours after a US-announced ceasefire.

BREAKING : Just 2 hours after the ceasefire announced by the US President Trump, Iran launched another wave of missiles & drones towards Israel & Middle East. Alert issued in Israel, Kuwait, Oman. Saudi Arabia & UAE. (Israeli Media) https://t.co/KeXhxWrmaJ

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@lookonchainverified685,320 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

A trader opened a 20x long position on Brent oil, and is now down as the US-Iran ceasefire caused oil prices to plunge.

Trader 0xfe46 created a new wallet 12 hours ago and deposited 3M $USDC into Hyperliquid to open a 20x long on 90,001 xyz:BRENTOIL. As the US–Iran ceasefire sent #oil plunging, the trader is now down $1.4M, with a liquidation price of $77.91. https://t.co/7ToDWXoaaO https://t.co/xQ8jeul4iM

41 views1 rt2 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Faytuksverified271,216 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims the ceasefire is a 'crushing defeat' for the US, stating the US was forced to accept Iran's 10-point plan.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council calls this a "crushing defeat" for the US, saying that they've been forced to accept their 10-point plan. Iran claims the US has agreed to continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/rqOSbkeuYV

188,610 views267 rt778 likesER:0.0226RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@owenjonesjournoverified1,083,144 flwQ:4/5opinionbearish

The user interprets Trump's acceptance of Iran's 10-point plan as the biggest strategic defeat for the US since its emergence as a superpower.

This is Iran's 10 point plan - which Trump has accepted as "a workable basis on which to negotiate." Have no doubt: This is the biggest strategic defeat suffered by the US since its emergence as a superpower. https://t.co/B3b0Gn66L1

684,116 views2,637 rt8,676 likesER:0.0567RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,659,260 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Pakistan's PM Shebaz Sharif informed Iran that the US has accepted Iran's 10-point plan as the basis for negotiations.

The PM of Pakistan Shebaz Sharif has informed Iran that the US has accepted Iran’s 10-point plan as the basis for negotiations. Here's what we know ⤵️ 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/gEOqW6KPwG https://t.co/q3tN17K7IV

18,300 views98 rt276 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirSona07verified56,693 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran has officially accepted a two-week ceasefire with the US and Israel.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran officially accepts 2-week ceasefire with US and Israel.

540 views1 rt9 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,451 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Crude oil prices plunged following news of a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.

BREAKING: Crude oil prices plunge on news of ceasefire deal between US and Iran 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/eCeDgm6UXO https://t.co/I85K1vwLXi

28,762 views45 rt150 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@KobeissiLetterverified1,666,432 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran claims it 'forced' the US to accept its 10-point plan, which includes terms like non-aggression and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 7. Termination of all Board of Governors re...

823,764 views1,507 rt8,541 likesER:0.0232RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@HQNewsNowverified1,157,611 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

The 10-point Iranian framework, which Trump is praising, includes lifting US sanctions, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, and a $2 million fee for passage.

The 10-point Iranian framework that Trump is praising and bragging about does the following: —Lifts all US sanctions on Iran —Cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran —A $2 million fee for every ship that travels the Strait —Allows Iran to establish "rules for safe passage" https://t.co/5uSevXC8dR

3,213 views36 rt65 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,024,318 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

AP reports that China encouraged Iran to seek a ceasefire with the US.

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇮🇷 China pushed Iran to seek ceasefire with the US, AP reports. https://t.co/0hbmMKCUuD

137,876 views492 rt3,367 likesER:0.0065RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@MAGAKittenUltra33 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user suggests attacks on Iran will continue through Israel, noting Israel bombed Iran after the ceasefire and China reportedly influenced Iran's ceasefire agreement.

@slave_2_liberty We'll just attack them through Israel. Israel bombed them right after the ceasefire already. The reports are that China got involved and convinced Iran to agree to the ceasefire, so I do thing Iran might honor it but not us.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Nexus_osintxverified1,645 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran has approximately 27 hours remaining before the deadline set by Trump expires.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - US | IRAN ❗️ Iran has around 27 hours left before the deadline set by Trump expires.

370 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0006RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RapidReport2025verified19,091 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Missile alerts were issued in Saudi Arabia following the US-Iran ceasefire.

BREAKING: Missile alerts in Saudi Arabia after US-Iran ceasefire https://t.co/1Zo80tDAjd

6,152 views5 rt12 likesER:0.0059RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@PlebWon196 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user believes the US and Israel will not accept the 10 points proposed by Iran.

@write_diligent @esaagar Well, regardless of where one stands on if the US should or shouldn’t have struck Iran the 10 points are not going to be accepted by the US and especially Israel. Will the US go to the table to find a resolution? I believe so. But even a middle ground in this instance will need to favor the US. The Strait of Hormuz can’t stay closed long term, but there’s also a very real ...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JayHrndz21,231 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user claims the US suffered significant military losses and Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.

@UltraDBCooper @raid532 @Remmy213 @ShaykhSulaiman @TheQuartering US got several planes dropped, got multiple military bases destroyed. billions in radar destroyed and Iran controls the Stait of Hormuz. What did the US gain?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@midnightowl37333 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user states that Israel fired at an aluminum plant before a deadline, Iran responded, and a US-Iran ceasefire was struck during this period, suggesting renewed conflict.

@BRICSinfo Here we go… the countdown is back on. Israel fired at an aluminum plant right before the deadline and Iran responded to it. During this time a ceasefire was struck between the US and Iran. This is a huge moment for the US. Let’s 🇮🇱 have one on the chin.

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@This_is_ILL_143 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user questions why Russia would nuke the US and states Iran doesn't have nukes.

@Jvnior Iran doesn’t have nukes and why would Russia nuke US?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@bynnaery7 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user asserts that Iran was bombed after they allowed the US to bomb Iran first.

@BetsyDePumpo @RepMcGovern They were bombed AFTER they let US bombed Iran first

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@looosilli173 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user criticizes Luxon for not having a position on alleged US actions while condemning Iran's actions.

@loosewheelnz @chrisluxonmp Luxon: we still don’t have a position on the US slaughtering 168 school girls Luxon: we CONDEMN Iran for exercising its legal right under article 51 UNCLOS to prevent non neutral or hostile vessels traversing its own territorial waters.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@iAMYStifiEdLF1,553 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user claims the US is at war with Iran due to the Secretary of War's actions and spending.

@covie_93 The US is at war with Iran because @SecWar renamed our U.S. DEFENSE Dept to a Dept of War. @SecWar is carrying out his fever dream with trillion$ of our taxpayer money....instead of taking care of We The People @realDonaldTrump put @secwar in his cabinet so they're both complicit

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0005	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9995	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9995	620,990.26	+$235,855.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0005	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9995	138,947.76	+$50,638.16
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9995	175,760.61	+$48,217.73
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9995	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9995	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9995	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9995	0	+$35,796.86