Trade Report :

Why Someone Wagered $146,180 Against US Forces Entering Iran

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

0x385c8de1906e532f6cdf66a6c7ea8b935a386e38

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$146,180.18

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-07 21:33:47 ET

Time

0x385c8de1906e532f6cdf66a6c7ea8b935a386e38 placed $146,180.18 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $180,377,329.779, 24h volume $69,603,416.923, heat level: Very Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $146,180.18 becomes $146,327.18 (profit $147)
If wrong, loses $146,180

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just *sold* $146,180 of "Yes" shares on "US forces enter Iran," leaving $147 profit on the table. This isn't a gamble; it's an institutional power play.

When a market hits 99.9% "Yes," the event isn't *going* to happen, it *has* happened. You're just waiting for the oracle to stamp the paperwork. Forfeiting $147 to unlock $146,180? That's not losing money; that's buying back time.

Twitter's chattering about ceasefires? Irrelevant. The market (with $180M volume!) already knows the score. That 0.1% "No" isn't a geopolitical shift, it's pure oracle risk – the semantic dance between "military" and "intelligence operatives."

Look at the other whales: 8 of the top 10 already rode "Yes" from $0.54 to $0.999. They’re already out, enjoying their spoils. This trader is just following the smart money exit strategy. A shrewd, if unsexy, move to free up capital for the *next* big thing. Chef's kiss for efficiency.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$180,377,329.779

24h Volume

$69,603,416.923

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding accidental entry, sea or air entry, intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, or diplomatic personnel.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events that occur at any point up to the listed date, specified in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The resolution will be based on a general agreement found in trustworthy news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding could be that any US military presence in Iran counts, when in fact only deliberate entry onto land for operational purposes by active military personnel qualifies.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US troops Iran

Relevant tweets: 38

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Don't fall for the "peace in our time" hype. The market just priced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, crushing short-term "Yes" bets. Aggressively short "Yes" for the next 14 days.

But this isn't peace; it's a "basis for negotiation"—a diplomatic Schrödinger's cat. It *explicitly excludes* Israel. Iran's still shelling Jerusalem. The "crushing defeat" narrative and unverified uranium enrichment rumors? Fuel for Trump's famously thin skin. North Korea's nukes are just the cherry on this geopolitical sundae.

This "ceasefire" is a house of cards. For 3 to 6 weeks out, smart money grabs cheap "Yes" shares. The second act always starts with a bang.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@ggreenwaldverified2,394,969 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

AP reports the ceasefire entitles Iran to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, split with Oman, and use the money for reconstruction.

AP reports that the cease fire entitles Iran to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, split with Oman, and to use that money for reconstruction. (Prior to the Israeli/US attack, passage through the Strait was free). https://t.co/p4KxilJvhg https://t.co/S0TyeWE5If

56,997 views194 rt787 likesER:0.0019RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@World_Affairs11verified232,376 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

North Korea states it will use nuclear weapons against the US if the US attacks Iran.

BREAKING: North Korea says it will use nuclear weapon against the US if it attacks Iran. if true there will be world war III https://t.co/up0BQOKpC3

950,612 views1,269 rt5,889 likesER:0.1346RR:4.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,437 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US President Donald Trump announced he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks. https://t.co/CIGvdQVWz9

114,652 views330 rt929 likesER:0.0030RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,437 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US President Donald Trump announced he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks. https://t.co/1LAjUm9F8o

315,991 views950 rt2,765 likesER:0.0086RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirSona07verified56,693 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran officially accepts a two-week ceasefire with the US and Israel.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran officially accepts 2-week ceasefire with US and Israel.

545 views1 rt9 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@EricLDaughverified1,024,839 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bombers took off from the UK and could reach Iran by Trump's 8 PM deadline.

🚨 JUST IN: US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bombers just TOOK OFF from the United Kingdom, and could reach Iran by the time President Trump's 8PM deadline hits Here we go. Iran should cave NOW. TRUMP IS SERIOUS, FAFO is coming 🔥 https://t.co/2NsFibrX3Y

1,642,026 views3,657 rt19,213 likesER:0.0901RR:1.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,954 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran confirms agreement to a ceasefire and states the US accepted its 10-point proposal, including Iranian control of Hormuz and full compensation.

Iran confirms that it has agreed to the ceasefire agreement-Fars Iran adds that the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz, full compensation for war damages, and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

856,691 views692 rt3,905 likesER:0.0120RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,024,460 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

The US and Iran have agreed to an immediate two-week ceasefire.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree to immediate 2-week ceasefire.

1,229,269 views2,456 rt19,010 likesER:0.0337RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,527,273 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US, Iran, and their allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon.

@mr_sky00 @livedoornews Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif just announced on X that the US, Iran, and their allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere—including Lebanon—effective now, after his mediation. Trump confirmed a two-week pause on strikes, tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with talks set for Islamabad. This de-escalates weeks of conflict; watching for official confirmations fr...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NewsBFMverified228,118 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The US President warned to destroy Iranian civilization if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened by 8 PM ET, a threat Iran dismissed while warning it could target US assets.

Earlier, the President had warned that the US would destroy Iranian civilisation if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 pm ET. Iran dismissed the threat and warned it could target US and allied oil and gas supplies if its civilian facilities were attacked. 🧵3

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (2)

KOL@grokverified8,527,273 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

A bill regarding tolls is not yet law, but Iran is already imposing informal tolls.

@DesertArizona @MMD79374638 @WarMonitor3 No, the bill isn't fully in effect as law yet—it's only passed a parliamentary committee and needs a full vote. However, Iran is already imposing informal tolls (up to $2M per vessel) on select ships for "safe passage" amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict, with selective transits allowed for friendly nations. No ceasefire has been finalized, and Iran has exp...

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@adamjohnsonCHI171,051 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The US actions of sneak attacks, killing leaders, and destroying infrastructure should lead to a humiliating outcome for the US in negotiations with Iran.

Yes it should be a humiliation, the US sneak attacked them, killed their leaders, mass murdered school girls and destroyed their critical infrastructure. What do people think Iran would agree to exactly?

20,065 views243 rt1,228 likesER:0.0356RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (5)

RETAIL@RelatablesHQverified2,846 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral

The US-Iran ceasefire does not include Israel.

@JesseBWatters US-Iran cease fire doesn't include Israel.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@PointNemo61829 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral

The agreement was between Iran and the US and did not include Israel.

@RT_com The agreement was between Iran and the US. It didn't include Israel.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Namehere42069453 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral

The agreement is between the US and Iran, not including Israel, which would need to negotiate its own terms.

@Cernovich @JesseBWatters And it isn’t with Israel it’s us and Iran, Israel would have to negotiate their own

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Rajbir_Singh28verified329 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

A planned military strike on Iran has been paused for two weeks, conditional on Iran ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and cooperating.

A planned military strike on Iran has been paused for 2 weeks. The pause is conditional on Iran ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and cooperating. Donald trump describes this as a “double-sided ceasefire”. Additional claims: •US has already achieved its military objectives. •There is significant progress toward a long-term peace agreement with Iran. •Iran has shared a 10-point p...

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@alileo87120 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

Iran's acceptance of a ceasefire is a mistake because the US and 'Zionists' will not stop until Iran is destroyed.

@propandco Biggest mistake Iran made is to accept ceasefire . US and Zionist won’t stop until Iran is completely destroyed .

4 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (9)

RETAIL@ImRealSajjad526 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

Iran emerged as a winner in the recent diplomatic events, with the US needing face-saving.

Fortune favour the brave. US needed face saving and a shoulder to put gun on to fire. Shahbaz provided it but couldnt keep it secret by copy paste saga. iran emerged as winner for now . UAE emerged as big loser . Saudis need to rethink. Qatar mau have thought already

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@gomez_max78868 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The claims about Iran's 10 points and US agreement are dismissed as fake, with the assertion that the US would never agree to them.

@War4theWest Those point are the same fake garbage that Iran has been pushing out for weeks. The US has Iran by the balls and would never agree to this. I’ve seen other “10 points” floating around. Unless it comes from the White House it’s bullshit

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@parrot_reborn4,806 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet questions whether Iran provided drone technology to the US, suggesting that such drones are easily reproducible.

@Teoyaomiquu Did Iran also give the US the technology so they can produce 'Lucas'? Anybody can produce these drones, russia has nukes and ICBMs and you think they can't copy these suicide drones? Lol

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GoBirds0616331 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

Iran making Trump and the US look foolish could provoke Trump into making an undesirable decision.

@SpencerHakimian This is going to end really bad. The fact that Iran is making Trump and the US look like fools is going to piss Trump off and he’s going to make a decision that nobody is going to like. Trump is a fool for thinking Iran was going to adhere to a cease fire.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@xoHIox1verified359 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Israel and Iran can fight without US involvement.

@EricLDaugh Israel and Iran can fight now without the US. https://t.co/VSCaAm9p8A

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GoonerSJ882 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The entire Israeli system, not just Bibi, is involved in pushing for war with Iran.

You can't claim Israel pushing the US into the war with Iran. That's antisemitic. Even if it's true... It was not just Bibi. It was the entire system in Israel. From mossad to the army to people in power and opposition...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GhostoftheElite90 flwQ:1/5emotionbullish

So what options are available currently with Iran? Should we wait for them to genocide Israel 🇮🇱 or should we genocide Iran?🇮🇷 Do we cave and cower like the liberals want us to do or do we Stand Firm and eliminate Iran from the face of the earth so their regimes permanently end?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GoSpursGo2023129 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

TACO Trump has bent over and taken it good and hard from Iran. That's what the swollen moron gets for playing Mr. MAGA Tough Guy and getting into a situation that he knows nothing about. Way to go, you sad sack. You've embarrassed yourself - again - and dragged us down with you.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AghaOmer_0121 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

الحمدللہ Pakistan played a vital role to bring an everlasting peace to the middle east and whole region. History will remember last night's diplomacy forever, how smart diplomacy by Pakistan saved millions of lives.#Iran -#US #pakistan

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0005	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9995	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9995	620,990.26	+$235,855.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0005	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9995	138,947.76	+$50,638.16
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9995	175,760.61	+$48,217.73
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9995	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9995	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9995	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9995	0	+$35,796.86