Trade Report :

US forces enter Iran Unlikely, Says $199,800 Polymarket Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

poorsob (0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$199,800

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-07 21:33:07 ET

Time

poorsob placed $199,800 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $180,377,329.779, 24h volume $69,603,416.923, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $199,800 becomes $200,000 (profit $200)
If wrong, loses $199,800

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just *sold* $199,800 of 'Yes' on US forces in Iran for a measly $200 profit. Sounds like picking up pennies with a steamroller, right? Wrong. This isn't a bet; it's an escape.

The market's at 99.9% 'Yes'. This contract is *dead money*. The whale is paying $200 (a microscopic 0.1%) to immediately unlock $199,800.

No waiting for Polymarket's oracle to finish its coffee. No sweating that "intelligence vs. military" rule ambiguity — a classic resolution landmine.

Other top whales? Many already bailed, sitting on 0.0 shares. This isn't lone wolf stuff; it's the professional playbook. Twitter's yammering about ceasefires? Irrelevant. This market already happened.

This is pure, unadulterated capital discipline. The whale just showed you the real meaning of opportunity cost. Almost makes me wish I had $200k trapped in a dead market to free up. A masterclass.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$180,377,329.779

24h Volume

$69,603,416.923

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to "Yes" if active US military personnel, including special operations forces, deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the listed date. It resolves to "No" if no such deliberate entry by qualifying personnel into Iran's land territory occurs by that date.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events that happen up to the specified date, with all times referenced in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The final outcome will be determined by a general agreement found in credible news reports and information sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding could be believing that US military personnel entering Iran's air or sea territory, or those entering accidentally, for diplomatic reasons, or as contractors, would count for a "Yes" resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US forces Iran

Relevant tweets: 37

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Trump's "double-sided ceasefire" with Iran? Market's tanking oil 15%. Whales are dumping short-term "YES" for US boots on the ground.

Hold your horses. This isn't peace; it's a 2-week timeout. Iran fired missiles at Israel *during* the announcement. Israel isn't even invited to this party, still itching for a fight.

The Strait of Hormuz? US says "open sesame," Iran says "toll booth, please."

Trump's volatility, Iran's gloating: this "truce" is thinner than a politician's promise. The market's overreacting. Don't be a lemming.

Accumulate cheap long-term "YES" shares for *after* the 14-day charade. That's where the smart money makes its bones.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@Faytuksverified271,221 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims the US has accepted its 10-point plan, which includes continued Iranian control.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council calls this a "crushing defeat" for the US, saying that they've been forced to accept their 10-point plan. Iran claims the US has agreed to continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/rqOSbkeuYV

190,749 views267 rt782 likesER:0.0226RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,908,977 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US oil prices crashed over 15% following a ceasefire with Iran.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US oil prices crash over 15% following ceasefire with Iran. https://t.co/ENgmnjdeKC

219,466 views370 rt2,531 likesER:0.0025RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,809,876 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Hebrew Media reports Trump announced a ceasefire simultaneously with Iran firing missiles towards Israel, suggesting the ceasefire is being mocked.

🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸 BREAKING: "Trump announced a ceasefire simultaneously with the firing of missiles from Iran towards Israel. They are simply mocking us." - Hebrew Media https://t.co/f83w90BNso

234,730 views678 rt3,707 likesER:0.0045RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,437 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

US President Donald Trump announced he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump says he agrees to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks. https://t.co/1LAjUm9F8o

315,991 views950 rt2,765 likesER:0.0086RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,908,977 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Brent crude oil crashed over 5% after reports of the US and Iran nearing a deal.

JUST IN: Brent crude oil crashes over 5% after reports of US and Iran nearing a deal. https://t.co/Wqote5MNuu

221,372 views304 rt2,273 likesER:0.0021RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,437 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif confirmed a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, including allies and Lebanon, and confirmed Friday talks.

BREAKING: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif has said the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, along with their allies, includes 'Lebanon and elsewhere', as he confirms Friday talks. https://t.co/7bfkV7NfYe

36,952 views303 rt1,055 likesER:0.0028RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@alifarhat79verified870,434 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

The US and Iran have reached an agreement, which is reflected in market reactions.

The US and Iran have reached an agre…. The market: https://t.co/sp1apbQzK5

578,403 views298 rt4,530 likesER:0.0121RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@EricLDaughverified1,024,838 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Vice President JD Vance is participating in negotiations between the US and Iran tonight before President Trump's deadline.

🚨 BREAKING: Vice President JD VANCE is taking part in negotiations tonight between the US and Iran before President Trump's deadline, per CBS Vance was speaking in HUNGARY today AWESOME! Vance is rising to the occasion. Thank you JD! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/iYfAdAYK9U

145,951 views326 rt2,187 likesER:0.0085RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@KobeissiLetterverified1,666,382 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran claims the US has accepted its 10-point plan, which includes a commitment to non-aggression and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms: 1. Commitment to non-aggression 2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 7. Termination of all Board of Governors re...

837,811 views1,526 rt8,657 likesER:0.0235RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@zerohedgeverified2,630,328 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Trump declared a two-week ceasefire, with the US suspending bombing and attacks on Iran, and Iran agreeing to immediately open the Strait of Hormuz.

TRUMP DECLARES TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE: US WILL SUSPEND BOMBING AND ATTACK ON IRAN FOR TWO WEEKS, WHILE IRAN WILL AGREE TO IMMEDIATE OPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ https://t.co/dxG2QRGm2u

417,188 views517 rt2,884 likesER:0.0050RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (4)

KOL@Megatron_ronverified647,021 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Trump stated he would not have told Germany about Iran due to concerns about leaks.

🇺🇸🇩🇪TRUMP: “We rebuilt Germany… and now Germany tells us it’s not their war. If I would have told them about Iran, they would have leaked it.” https://t.co/q5ue4LYfRX

1,629,108 views2,886 rt25,647 likesER:0.1288RR:2.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified501,753 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Hebrew media reports that Trump has left them alone.

Hebrew media: Trump has left us alone. 😂😂😂😂

101,436 views572 rt5,814 likesER:0.0344RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,527,271 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

A bill regarding tolls is not yet law, but Iran is already imposing informal tolls.

@DesertArizona @MMD79374638 @WarMonitor3 No, the bill isn't fully in effect as law yet—it's only passed a parliamentary committee and needs a full vote. However, Iran is already imposing informal tolls (up to $2M per vessel) on select ships for "safe passage" amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict, with selective transits allowed for friendly nations. No ceasefire has been finalized, and Iran has exp...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DrEliDavidverified854,622 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The user suggests that if Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium, stop enrichment, stop building ballistic missiles, and stop arming terrorists, it would signify a resolution.

Hold your horses announcing who won… If Iran agrees to give up its highly enriched uranium, stop uranium enrichment, stop building long range ballistic missiles, and stop arming terrorists (Trump's demands before the war), then the US won. Otherwise, the regime in Iran won.

198 views1 rt5 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (5)

RETAIL@abhishekjha157verified6,221 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif announced an immediate ceasefire between the US and Iran and their allies, with Islamabad to host further negotiations on April 10.

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif announces ceasefire, effective immediately, between US and Iran with their respective allies. Islamabad to host both side on 10 April for further negotiations. "Iran and USA, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY" says Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif.

294 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0002RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Rajbir_Singh28verified329 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

A planned military strike on Iran has been paused for two weeks, conditional on Iran ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and cooperating.

A planned military strike on Iran has been paused for 2 weeks. The pause is conditional on Iran ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and cooperating. Donald trump describes this as a “double-sided ceasefire”. Additional claims: •US has already achieved its military objectives. •There is significant progress toward a long-term peace agreement with Iran. •Iran has shared a 10-point p...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TheMeatSurgeonverified184 flwQ:3/5analysisbullish

The user claims the US did not agree to a ceasefire/deal, and social media reports are fake statements.

@Justifiably_Me What are they “negotiating” if the US already agreed..? Spoiler, the US did not agree, and Iran knows that. Social media ran with fake statements and created confusion. It’s a ceasefire not an end to the war. NOTHING is agreed besides cessation of hostilities (strait included)

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JewishLives1verified1,119 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Trump is pessimistic on an Iran deal, and Israel is awaiting a US green light to hit Iranian infrastructure.

Trump pessimistic on Iran deal as #Israel awaits US green light to hit infrastructure ...Follow https://t.co/zJVf2fGfuJ for more. https://t.co/5gxGpLCOBb #IsraelUnderAttack #StandWithJews #StandWithIsrael #IsraelStrong #TruthMatters #AmYisraelChai #StopJewHate #EndAntisemitism #JewishVoices #WeStandWithIsrael #NeverForget #BringThemHomeNow #NeverAgain #JewishLivesMatter #FightAntisemitism #WeRemem...

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MarkhorTweet7,798 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The US-Iran ceasefire is a conditional two-week pause, not an unconditional or permanent end to hostilities.

Ceasefire‼️‼️ The US-Iran ceasefire/de-escalation are a conditional two-week pause, not an unconditional or permanent end to hostilities. #ceasefire https://t.co/Hai81aoi8s

184 views3 rt6 likesER:0.0085RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@PointNemo61829 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The agreement was between Iran and the US and did not include Israel.

@RT_com The agreement was between Iran and the US. It didn't include Israel.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@NullTensor2369 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Iran will charge a toll at the Strait, which the user considers a strategic loss for the US.

@calvinfroedge Most importantly Iran will charge a toll at the strait. That’s a strategic loss for the US.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ImRealSajjad526 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Iran emerged as a winner, and the US needed face-saving in the recent developments.

Fortune favour the brave. US needed face saving and a shoulder to put gun on to fire. Shahbaz provided it but couldnt keep it secret by copy paste saga. iran emerged as winner for now . UAE emerged as big loser . Saudis need to rethink. Qatar mau have thought already

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GoBirds0616331 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user predicts Trump will make an unfavorable decision due to Iran making the US look foolish, potentially leading to escalation.

@SpencerHakimian This is going to end really bad. The fact that Iran is making Trump and the US look like fools is going to piss Trump off and he’s going to make a decision that nobody is going to like. Trump is a fool for thinking Iran was going to adhere to a cease fire.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Namehere42069453 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The agreement is between the US and Iran, not involving Israel, which would need its own negotiations.

@Cernovich @JesseBWatters And it isn’t with Israel it’s us and Iran, Israel would have to negotiate their own

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@alileo87120 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user believes Iran made a mistake accepting a ceasefire, as the US and Zionists will continue until Iran is destroyed.

@propandco Biggest mistake Iran made is to accept ceasefire . US and Zionist won’t stop until Iran is completely destroyed .

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@EmpAmerico205060 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The outcome of the situation is Iran imposing a tax on the straits and sanctions being lifted.

@thekingoftruths @ERVINGODE @HarmlessHQ Cost us billions to win the right for iran to impose a tax on the straits and lift sanctions on iran. https://t.co/bzzsaacsm6

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MrOizo2k22191 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The tweet references a 10-point plan given by Iran.

@nicksortor @VP Which point of 10 that Iran gave us you like the most?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@GoSpursGo2023129 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

TACO Trump has bent over and taken it good and hard from Iran. That's what the swollen moron gets for playing Mr. MAGA Tough Guy and getting into a situation that he knows nothing about. Way to go, you sad sack. You've embarrassed yourself - again - and dragged us down with you.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ss499112592 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

@TruthTrumpPost “Mr President Trump ,you promised us you would stay with the Iranian people. You must not abandon us halfway and make a deal with them. Why are you playing with the nerves of us Iranian people? We are tired. Finish the job. Don’t give the Islamic republic regime in Iran any time

5 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:2.5Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0005	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9995	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9995	620,990.26	+$235,855.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0005	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9995	138,947.76	+$50,638.16
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9995	175,760.61	+$48,217.73
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9995	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9995	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9995	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9995	0	+$35,796.86