US x Iran Ceasefire? $317,686 Bet on Polymarket Says It's On
poorsob placed $317,685.73 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $42,388,026.15, 24h volume $25,665,024.303, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997
If correct, $317,685.73 becomes $318,641.73 (profit $956)
If wrong, loses $317,686
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some whale just dropped $317,686 to BUY "Yes" on a US-Iran ceasefire, hoping for a princely $956 profit. A 0.3% return. This isn't trading; it's a high-stakes game of "picking up pennies in front of a Polymarket steamroller."
Sure, the market's 99.8% "Yes" and the ceasefire's "announced." But for $956, you're betting against smart contract failure, UMA oracle disputes, or the US State Dept pulling a "JK LOL" on that agreement.
Early whales were printing money, like $463,150. This whale is sweeping their crumbs, risking total loss if resolution drags or geopolitics pulls a fast one. An "average to slightly below-average" move. Unless you're an AI with infinite capital and zero-latency execution, this whale's just showing off.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the specified deadline, confirmed by both governments or overwhelming media consensus. It resolves "No" if such a formal, mutual agreement is not reached, or if only informal understandings or temporary pauses occur.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this deadline based on whether the agreement was finalized by then.
The outcome is determined by official public statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. Alternatively, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also suffice.
Not specified in the rules.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US Iran truce
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The US-Iran "ceasefire" just landed, plunging oil 20%. Whales are buying the peace narrative. Don't be a mark.
This isn't regional de-escalation; it's a strictly bilateral divorce from reality. While Washington and Tehran play nice, Israel and Iran are still exchanging missiles like a particularly spicy Twitter thread. Saudi alerts confirm it.
Iran's 10-point "deal"—Hormuz control, US compensation—is a political Trojan Horse for Washington. Senator Murphy's already sharpening his knives. A "two-week" pause with no clear start? That's not a ceasefire; it's a ticking clock.
If your market resolves on *announcement*, sure. But for *sustained* peace? This is a fragile trap. That 20% oil drop? A contrarian long signal. The real conflict is compartmentalized, not canceled. Watch Islamabad and DC's domestic drama.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (2)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (2)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9975 | 477,543.66 | +$463,149.54 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9975 | 245,658.17 | +$193,515.19 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9975 | 155,118.78 | +$158,753.17 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9975 | 174,764.3 | +$156,336.28 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |