Trade Report :
Why Someone Wagered $399,600 Against US Forces Entering Iran
ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
poorsob (0x2785e7022dc20757108204b13c08cea8613b70ae)
PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?
$399,600
Trade Amount
SELL Yes
Trade Side
0.999
Entry Price
Time
poorsob placed $399,600 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $179,669,565.449, 24h volume $68,943,313.713, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999
Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance
Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $399,600 becomes $400,000 (profit $400)
If wrong, loses $399,600
If correct, $399,600 becomes $400,000 (profit $400)
If wrong, loses $399,600
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Risking $399,600 for a $400 profit (a 0.0:1 ratio!) on 'US forces enter Iran'?! Hold your horses, plebs. This whale isn't *betting*. They're executing.
Selling "Yes Yes" at 99.9% isn't a gamble; it's a genius move to instantly unlock $399,600. Why wait for Polymarket's oracle to finish its coffee? The market (special ops confirmed by Trump) is DONE.
That $400 'loss' is a paltry 0.1% fee for immediate liquidity. While you're stuck in resolution purgatory, this whale's $399,600 is already hunting the *next* alpha. Look, 8 of the top 10 whales already pulled this exact stunt, their balances now showing 0.0 shares.
This isn't a trade; it's a coordinated capital velocity flex. An A+ institutional exit. Don't be poor.
Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →
Total Volume
$179,669,565.449
24h Volume
$68,943,313.713
Heat
Very Hot
End Date
Not specified
Created
2026-01-11
Holders
10
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
Conditions
The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if such entry does not occur, specifically excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomats, or accidental entry.
Timeline
The event must occur by the specific date and time listed, which is in Eastern Time (ET).
Source
The outcome will be determined by a general agreement among reliable news sources and reports.
Special Cases
Not specified in the rules.
Common Mistakes
A common misunderstanding is that any US military presence in Iran counts; however, only deliberate entry onto land for operational purposes qualifies, excluding accidental entry, diplomatic visits, or entry into sea or air territory.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, Iran invasion, US Iran conflict
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US forces enter Iran by Dec 31?" RESOLVED: YES. Whales just ate.
Trump confirmed "search and rescue" ops inside Iran. That's your "boots on the ground," folks. Forget the Blitzkrieg fantasy.
Tier 1 ops, not tanks rolling. The market defined "enter" like a legal eagle, not a Hollywood scriptwriter.
This redefines "entry." If any market's "Yes" is below 99% on similar contracts, it's an arbitrage banquet.
Don't get caught waiting for a full-scale invasion; the 'entry' already happened.
Risk? Pundits crying "no true Scotsman" over what constitutes "entering." Ceasefire chaos is just noise now.
KOL — High Relevance (9)
BREAKING:
Israel has started strikes on railway infrastructure and bridges across Iran.
Meanwhile, US forces are targeting defensive installations on Kharg Island.
Airstrikes are continuing across the country. https://t.co/qzDut04XrH
‼️🇺🇲🇮🇱🇮🇷 BREAKING | Iranian sources claim that U.S. and Israeli forces have begun targeting power infrastructure in Iran, including Power Station No. 123 near Al-Masla Street in the city of Mashhad.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo https://t.co/AJ2voY5anD
ISRAEL JUST UNLEASHED DEVASTATING STRIKES ON IRAN’S RAIL SYSTEMS AND BRIDGES ACROSS THE COUNTRY — AS US FORCES HAMMER KHARG ISLAND INTO OBLIVION!
Trump WASN’T BLUFFING — not even for a second!
Follow @17QStorm for more intel drops! https://t.co/75ckAgPbWL
US/Israeli forces are bombing Mehrabad Airport in Iran’s capital, Tehran, again tonight, with pillars of smoke and flame rising from the airfield. https://t.co/8Y0HRjf1Ra
@Anthony52689794 @spectatorindex US and Israeli forces are conducting airstrikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets in Tehran, part of the ongoing US-Israel vs. Iran conflict. Iran has been retaliating with missile strikes on Israel. As of today, Trump announced a 2-week pause in strikes if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, with talks starting soon.
"The aspects of American narrative DON'T ADD UP"
Former US Marine intelligence officer @RealScottRitter says those who carried out the US operation inside Iran belong to an "elite, Tier 1 special operations forces unit" that does not participate in rescue operations. https://t.co/ABG2jZmgkh
Iran: The rescue of American pilot was CIA plan to mislead the Iranian military about the US forces' intention to seize the Isfahan nuclear reactor to steal enriched uranium, but we were able to thwart it and destroyed three military transport planes and two other helicopters. https://t.co/nUxejSwcXL
'GOD WAS WATCHING US': President Trump takes a moment to thank "every member of the U.S. Armed Forces" involved in the search and rescue operations in Iran. https://t.co/521AALb3zc
99% chance U.S. forces enter Iran this month
https://t.co/3n979FITsr
KOL — Medium Relevance (10)
A prominent former US advisor drops a reality check on Fox News. He admits Donald Trump was completely forced into a ceasefire because markets were panicking over the Strait of Hormuz. He warns this pause brilliantly allows Iran to regroup and strengthen its forces. https://t.co/NbEP1AThLE
@ToxicVibes3Dc @BRICSinfo @IranArmyMedia @IRanMediaco @paknews @PakMGOfficial Yes, recent reports confirm Israel and Iran are still exchanging missile strikes as of early today—no specific ceasefire start time was agreed upon (per AP and Israeli officials). US forces have paused offensives, but exchanges continue.
Pakistan has mediated diplomatically: proposing a two-stage ceasefire framework, re...
🚨JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now.
#BREAKING- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now.
#Israël #iran
🚨BREAKING: US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now. https://t.co/85l0u1IEMP
@JoyChio69017631 @BRICSinfo The US hasn't abandoned its Middle East allies. Trump just announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran (agreed by Israel too), conditional on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. US forces paused strikes as part of this, while talks continue in Islamabad starting Friday.
This follows US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets and aims to de-escalate, secure oil ...
BREAKING: President Donald Trump claims the US’s war on Iran is going well and that Washington's forces could “take out” the whole country in a single night “and that night might be tomorrow night.”
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/WKP3P9Sc5P https://t.co/6B3nEkK6IC
Iran confirms that it has agreed to the ceasefire agreement-Fars
Iran adds that the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz, full compensation for war damages, and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.
BREAKING:
Britain withdraws its forces from US bases in Iraq.
Absolute humiliation for Donald Trump. He desperately claims victory but officially accepted a ceasefire where Iran forces the lifting of all US sanctions and charges a two million dollar toll per ship. Washington completely surrendered. Absolute masterclass by Iran. https://t.co/8tRf6WnkkC
Retail — High Relevance (7)
RESOLVED [WIN] | Wilted-Echidna's $770.4K on
"US forces enter Iran by December 31?" [Yes]
Entry: 72% | Settled: 100%
Final P&L: +$220.1K
https://t.co/rKSHVQGaEq
🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸Throughout the night and morning, the US and Israeli air forces carried out powerful strikes on Tehran and other cities in Iran, with more than 50 airstrikes, including the targeting of a petrochemical plant in Shiraz. https://t.co/j2QCdN1feb
🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel Strikes Iran’s Railway Infrastructure
Israel targets railway lines and bridges across Iran.
US forces strike defensive sites on Kharg Island.
Airstrikes continue in multiple parts of the country. https://t.co/7kXlZeQJbN
Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Paying compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
@legitbrittFLA He's agreeing to their ten points.
Its lifting sanctions.
Its letting then enrich uranium.
Its retreating our forces and giving up bases.
Its paying reparations.
Its Iran controlling the Strait.
Its us giving up against Hezbollah.
Hows that a win?
Hawkish Trump supporters seem to be unhappy that Iran wasn't bombed and swiftly invaded by US special forces and the country Blitzkrieg'd like in the Hollywood movies.
Instead, they're reading headlines about Iran potentially gaining more revenues.
Ouch.
@CENTCOM The people of Iran are fully ready to overthrow the Islamic Republic today. Instead of striking Iran’s civilian infrastructure—which serves the people and is essential for daily life—US and Israeli forces should target the repressive security units. These forces are currently threatening civilians with military-grade weapons in the streets and are fully prepared to massacre protesters. If...
Retail — Medium Relevance (10)
🇺🇸🇦🇪🇧🇭🛰 Satellite image analysis shows that the Habshan gas facilities in the #UAE, the gas compression unit at the same complex, and a US military intelligence backup data center in #Bahrain have been precisely targeted by Iranian armed forces.
#Iran #US https://t.co/LvqE3TDFMo
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now.
US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now.
Wait so,
> Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz
> Iran is allowed uranium enrichment
> All sanctions and resolutions on Iran are lifted
> US pays damages to Iran
> All US forces withdraw from the region
This isn't a ceasefire this is a surrender https://t.co/71S5X6fgkD
The dust has finally settled following Iran's final missile salvo before the commencement of the ceasefire. Iranian media says Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered all IRGC Aerospace Forces units to halt their missile fire.
Meanwhile the US paused their attacks on Iran a few hours ago. Israel launced a final wave of airstrikes on ballistic missile facilities and other military sites in Ahvaz,...
Iran has declared a "historic and crushing defeat" of the US and the Israeli regime announcing that Washington has been forced to accept a 10-point Iranian proposal that includes a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. https://t.co/wuTIP3EHuO
[ BREAKING ] Israeli forces are still carrying out strikes in Iran despite agreeing to suspend its bombing campaign as part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal, an Israeli military spokesperson told CNN. https://t.co/bHhwH2cdlm
Urgent
The Iran-Israel war continues on the Iraq field.
Fire engulfs the Popular Mobilization Forces (Badr) headquarters at Camp Ashraf in Diyala province following a US airstrike.
Ashraf Camp in Iraq’s Diala, home to Badr Organization, came under two airstrikes.. https://t.co/21fAh6r0PK
#BreakingNews :- War 40 Days 🇮🇷.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran did not discuss a specific time for when the ceasefire will begin, AP reports.
Both Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other, while American forces halted offensive operations for now.
#Israël
#IranWar https://t.co/n0GlGW6flQ
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1 | No | 0.0010 | 0.0005 | 0 | +$807,368.48 |
| 2 | 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d | Yes | 0.6345 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$290,215.46 |
| 3 | 0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3 | Yes | 0.6196 | 0.9995 | 620,990.26 | +$235,855.21 |
| 4 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | No | 0.0070 | 0.0005 | 0 | +$58,641.17 |
| 5 | 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708 | Yes | 0.6421 | 0.9995 | 138,947.76 | +$50,638.16 |
| 6 | 0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3 | Yes | 0.7805 | 0.9995 | 175,760.61 | +$48,217.73 |
| 7 | 0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14 | Yes | 0.6716 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$42,372.6 |
| 8 | 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7 | Yes | 0.6225 | 0.9995 | 0.01 | +$41,966.64 |
| 9 | 0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947 | Yes | 0.5408 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$39,847.37 |
| 10 | 0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848 | Yes | 0.5986 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$35,796.86 |