US x Iran Ceasefire? $132,327 Polymarket Bet Says No Way
UpDownUpDown placed $132,326.68 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $41,688,872.034, 24h volume $25,003,917.311, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996
If correct, $132,326.68 becomes $132,857.68 (profit $531)
If wrong, loses $132,327
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some whale just risked $132,327 on a US-Iran ceasefire for a princely profit of $531. That's not trading; that's a high-stakes lottery ticket where the only prize is a participation trophy.
They bought "Yes" at 99.6%, betting on Trump's announcement. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly withdrawing from talks and launching missiles at Israel and the UAE. "Mutually agreed"? When one side is actively firing rockets, that's less "agreement" and more "mutually assured destruction of your capital."
The *real* smart money already bagged up to $462,672 getting in early. This isn't yield farming; it's picking up pennies in front of a nuclear-powered steamroller. When that "mutually agreed" clause hits, your $132k will vanish faster than a politician's promise. A profoundly bad trade.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and Iran publicly announce and mutually agree to halt direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves to "No" if no such official ceasefire agreement is reached, or if only informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary stand-downs occur.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on whether the agreement is reached by this time, regardless of when the ceasefire itself officially takes effect.
The resolution will primarily be based on official public statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will also suffice.
Not specified in the rules.
A common misunderstanding is that informal agreements, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks do not count as an "official ceasefire." Also, the agreement must be reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect later; agreements for future negotiations without a firm commitment to stop fighting do not qualify.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US Iran conflict
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Whales swallowed Trump's "ceasefire" hook, line, and sinker, crashing oil 20% in 8 hours.
But while Pakistan's PM declared "peace everywhere," the NYT reported Iran *stopped* negotiations.
Hours after the *announced* ceasefire, Iran launched new drones and missiles at Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
This isn't a ceasefire; it's a geopolitical Schrödinger's cat: simultaneously "on" and "off" until you check the facts.
The market priced "Yes" based on a headline, not reality.
If your resolution requires *actual* cessation of hostilities, not just presidential pronouncements, "No" is the undervalued play.
Don't be a lemming. The ground truth screams "No," louder than a missile warning siren.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (1)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9965 | 477,543.66 | +$462,672 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9965 | 248,120.59 | +$193,265.84 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9965 | 155,118.78 | +$158,598.05 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9965 | 174,764.3 | +$156,161.51 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |