A $75,923 Bet Says Yes to US x Iran Ceasefire Prediction
jesterthegoose placed $75,923 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $17,151,491.646, 24h volume $3,555,266.6, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
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Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a mutual, publicly announced halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if no such formal agreement is reached, or if only informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or agreements for future talks occur.
The agreement must be reached by the listed date at 11:59 PM ET; the market will resolve based on whether this condition is met by that deadline. The actual start date of the ceasefire itself, if after the deadline, does not prevent a "Yes" resolution.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming such an agreement will also be sufficient.
Not specified in the rules.
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Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 365,446.53 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee | Yes | 0.2859 | 0.9995 | 365,446.53 | +$260,749.39 |
| 2 | 0x44de2a52d8d2d3ddcf39d58e315a10df53ba9c08 | Yes | 0.3516 | 0.9995 | 3.74 | +$131,159.69 |
| 3 | 0x0eaa43c627cd482acb6866a03fe1138495e0c521 | Yes | 0.2960 | 0.9995 | 180,500.32 | +$126,974.04 |
| 4 | 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c | Yes | 0.1915 | 0.9995 | 156,646.55 | +$126,568.38 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.3878 | 0.9995 | 202,042.67 | +$122,411.16 |
| 6 | 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73 | Yes | 0.3080 | 0.9995 | 162,147.02 | +$112,168.93 |
| 7 | 0x335592400e402c26583ce8b56d12605e9548a126 | Yes | 0.2691 | 0.9995 | 148,532.87 | +$101,734.68 |
| 8 | 0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804 | Yes | 0.3350 | 0.9995 | 133,436.12 | +$100,406.79 |
| 9 | 0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991 | Yes | 0.3226 | 0.9995 | 103,653.86 | +$97,286.55 |
| 10 | 0x56b5aced8b60c4c0cfeb9215132a8eb5395cb0a2 | Yes | 0.2982 | 0.9995 | 0 | +$86,847.26 |