Trade Report :
Will Iran Israel Conflict End by Dec 31? $100K Polymarket Bet Says Yes
This analysis was generated on 2026-04-17, data may be outdated
alienreal (0x72e4daa9b93fd3786f231c3b73c1bdbc4c48740a)
PolyMarket : Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$100,347.66
Trade Amount
BUY Yes
Trade Side
0.982
Entry Price
Time
alienreal placed $100,347.66 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?" (December 31) at odds 0.982 (market gives 98.2% probability). Total market volume $2,942,749.472, 24h volume $220,792.201, heat level: Active.
Odds Analysis: December 31, Yes at 0.982
Yes odds at 0.982, market gives 98.2% chance
Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $100,347.66 becomes $102,186.66 (profit $1,839)
If wrong, loses $100,348
If correct, $100,347.66 becomes $102,186.66 (profit $1,839)
If wrong, loses $100,348
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Collecting...
Market Context: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...? December 31Market Page →
Total Volume
$2,942,749.472
24h Volume
$220,792.201
Heat
Active
End Date
2026-06-30
Created
2026-03-12
Holders
10
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Iran Israel conflict, Iran US conflict, Iran war
Relevant tweets: 0
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 6 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 217,603 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825 | Yes | 0.8599 | 0.9815 | 217,603 | +$24,824.2 |
| 2 | 0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b | Yes | 0.8468 | 0.9815 | 168,096.97 | +$22,642.66 |
| 3 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | No | 0.0732 | 0.0185 | 6,700.55 | +$13,928.78 |
| 4 | 0xe52c0a1327a12edc7bd54ea6f37ce00a4ca96924 | Yes | 0.8957 | 0.9815 | 60,102.89 | +$4,995.35 |
| 5 | 0x2fe727db6aaa00b13cbb6741f07044317b8142c1 | No | 0.0192 | 0.0185 | 6.41 | +$4,006.73 |
| 6 | 0x801dbe416065cfa8ecffeae526eeb37f393fd8e0 | Yes | 0.8340 | 0.9815 | 24,798.43 | +$3,655.34 |
| 7 | 0x72e4daa9b93fd3786f231c3b73c1bdbc4c48740a | Yes | 0.9671 | 0.9815 | 171,259.51 | +$2,572.95 |
| 8 | 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418 | Yes | 0.9634 | 0.9815 | 14,896.23 | +$2,311.19 |
| 9 | 0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145 | No | 0.0703 | 0.0185 | 0.01 | +$2,296.65 |
| 10 | 0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595 | No | 0.0279 | 0.0185 | 0 | +$2,034.91 |