Investor Bets $81,582: US-Iran Ceasefire Won't Happen
alienreal placed $81,581.66 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.9876 (market gives 98.8% probability). Total market volume $38,716,519.21, 24h volume $22,120,711.932, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.9876
If correct, $81,581.66 becomes $82,605.66 (profit $1,024)
If wrong, loses $81,582
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dumped $81,582 on a US-Iran ceasefire 'Yes' at 98.9%.
Most see a guaranteed $1,024 profit.
This whale? They saw an $81,582 steamroller.
Why chase that measly 1.1% upside when the news is a mirage?
An "official ceasefire" announced.
But Iran's still lobbing missiles, and Israel's playing spoiler.
That's not peace, that's a polite pause before the next round.
The market's at 98.9% because retail *bought the headline*.
This whale *sold the nuance*.
They instantly unlocked $81,582.
Free capital, baby! No sitting around hoping some oracle doesn't call BS on "mutually agreed halt" because of a stray rocket.
This isn't just profit-taking.
It's a masterclass in dodging the 1.1% tail risk of a total wipeout.
And freeing up $81,000 for *actual* asymmetric bets.
I'm not jealous, you're jealous. Okay, I'm a little jealous.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a publicly announced, mutual halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if no such formal agreement is reached and publicly confirmed by that time.
The crucial deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether this agreement is in place by that specific time, regardless of when the ceasefire itself takes effect.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. However, a strong consensus among credible news reports confirming an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will also be sufficient.
Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks do not count as an official ceasefire. A broader peace deal only qualifies if it explicitly includes a publicly announced, mutual, and dated commitment to stop military engagement.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The whales just took a bath, or so they think. Oil cratered 15-20%, crypto shorts liquidated $160 million on news of a US-Iran 2-week ceasefire. A classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" trap, but inverted.
Trump declared peace. Simultaneously, missile sirens screamed "Hold my beer" across Israel, Saudi, Bahrain, Kuwait. Israel "agreed," yet Pakistan's FM blames them for sabotage. This isn't a ceasefire; it's a Potemkin peace treaty.
Prediction market players: Is "ceasefire" a *declaration* or an *actual cessation*? If the latter, the 'YES' bet is a death trap. That $97.50 oil price? Looks like a contrarian's dream, not a settled market.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9890 | 477,543.66 | +$459,090.42 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9890 | 355,555.18 | +$344,813.15 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9890 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9890 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9890 | 251,472.76 | +$191,374.77 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9890 | 200,000 | +$174,495.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9890 | 155,118.78 | +$157,434.66 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9890 | 174,764.3 | +$154,850.78 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9890 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9890 | 145,219.01 | +$133,769.98 |