Trade Report :

US forces enter Iran? $157,612 Bet on Polymarket Says No Way

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

debased (0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1) · @debased_PM

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$157,611.55

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.997

Entry Price

2026-04-07 20:14:17 ET

Time

debased placed $157,611.55 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $168,532,331.858, 24h volume $59,011,240.371, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997

Yes odds at 0.997, market gives 99.7% chance

0.5%

Yes

99.5%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $157,611.55 becomes $158,085.55 (profit $474)
If wrong, loses $157,612

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just pulled a $157,612 Houdini on the "US forces enter Iran" market, ditching their "Yes" shares at 99.7%. They risked $157,612 for a measly $474 upside. That's not trading; that's picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. A 0.0:1 risk/reward, seriously?

The "two-week ceasefire" news dropped like a tactical nuke on the "Yes" thesis. And let's not forget the resolution rules: "special ops" vs. "intel operatives." A bureaucratic quagmire designed to make you sweat.

Other "smart money" whales? Many already have 0.0 shares. They cashed out ages ago. This whale just joined the "I'd rather be rich than right for $474" club.

This isn't just a trade; it's a masterclass in capital preservation. While the plebs cling to their 99.7% "certainty," this whale walked away. Smooth enough to make me slightly jealous.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$168,532,331.858

24h Volume

$59,011,240.371

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves to "No" if this condition is not met, specifically excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomatic personnel, or accidental entry.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events that occur at any point up to the listed date, which is specified in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The final outcome will be decided based on a general agreement found in trustworthy news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, US forces Iran, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Don't pop the champagne just yet. This "ceasefire" is a 2-week Potemkin peace, a diplomatic delay, not a resolution. US forces *entering* Iran? Not by next Tuesday, certainly. The market's pricing a comfy "No" for now, betting on the 2-week pause.

But beneath this manufactured calm? A viper's nest. Iran's "10-point plan" vs. America's "15-point framework" are as reconcilable as a cat and a bathtub. Israel's fuming, ready to play spoiler. And while diplomats sip tea, Iran's quietly importing Iraqi PMF to prep for a *ground war*. Let that sink in.

This isn't peace; it's a timeout. Whales aren't fooled. They're shorting the immediate "Yes," but loading up on the longer-term dip. That's your cue. Don't mistake a truce for true peace. The storm isn't over; it's just reloading.

KOL — High Relevance (5)

KOL@World_Affairs11verified232,405 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

North Korea reportedly stated it would use nuclear weapons against the US if the US attacks Iran.

BREAKING: North Korea says it will use nuclear weapon against the US if it attacks Iran. if true there will be world war III https://t.co/up0BQOKpC3

629,423 views1,229 rt5,656 likesER:0.1301RR:2.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@no_itsmyturnverified141,233 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

PMF fighters from Iraq have reportedly entered Iran to help the IRGC suppress protests and prepare for a potential US ground operation.

PMF fighters from Iraq 🇮🇶 have reportedly entered Iran 🇮🇷 to help the IRGC suppress potential protests and prepare for the possibility of a US 🇺🇸 ground operation.

22,340 views40 rt161 likesER:0.0068RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WW3_Monitorverified95,023 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

A US Official states that the US military has halted all offensive operations against Iran, while continuing defensive actions.

US Official - US military has halted all offensive operations against Iran, but continues defensive actions 🇺🇸🇺🇸‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️

6,474 views17 rt74 likesER:0.0044RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@gokhshtein97,067 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

A US official states that the US military has halted offensive operations against Iran, while defensive measures remain active.

JUST IN: US military halted offensive ops against Iran, but defensive measures remain active, as per a US official.

0 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Megatron_ronverified646,987 flwQ:4/5opinionbullish

Iran and the US have agreed to a ceasefire, but the user predicts the US will break the agreement and attack Iran again after consolidating.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran and the US have agreed to a ceasefire. The problem for Iran is that the US never sticks to the agreement. Iran will be attacked again after the US consolidates.

11,422 views88 rt522 likesER:0.0035RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@IranArmyMediaverified43,289 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims a historic victory, stating the US accepted its 10-point plan, including Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and enrichment rights.

Supreme national security council: Iran achieved historic victory by forcing criminal US to accept its 10-point plan. US has accepted Iran's control over Strait of Hormuz, enrichment right, removal of all sanctions.

49,287 views182 rt1,137 likesER:0.1104RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Faytuksverified271,130 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims the US suffered a 'crushing defeat' by being forced to accept Iran's 10-point plan, including continued Iranian control.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council calls this a "crushing defeat" for the US, saying that they've been forced to accept their 10-point plan. Iran claims the US has agreed to continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/rqOSbkeuYV

127,234 views241 rt724 likesER:0.0204RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,421 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran confirms agreement to a ceasefire and states that the US accepted its 10-point proposal for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz and full compensation.

Iran confirms that it has agreed to the ceasefire agreement-Fars Iran adds that the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz, full compensation for war damages, and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

542,038 views584 rt3,149 likesER:0.0100RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MacroEdgeResverified60,934 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Iran's Finance Minister states that if the US and Israel halt attacks, the Strait of Hormuz will be open for safe passage for two weeks.

Iran FinMin: If US and Israel halt attacks, Strait of Hormuz will be open for safe passage for two weeks #MacroEdge

2,554 views7 rt41 likesER:0.0030RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranArmyMediaverified43,289 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Iran claims the US has accepted its 10-point conditions, including non-aggression, Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and acceptance of enrichment.

Iran's 10-point conditions that the US has accepted: The US is fundamentally committed to: 🔹 Non-aggression 🔹 Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz 🔹 Acceptance of enrichment 🔹 Lifting all primary sanctions 🔹 Lifting all secondary sanctions 🔹 Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 🔹 Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions 🔹 Payment of...

73,629 views212 rt985 likesER:0.1207RR:1.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GBNEWS916,250 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Shay Khatiri discusses reports that Iran fired missiles at Israel despite a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US.

YP and Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute Shay Khatiri discusses reports that Iran has just fired missiles at Israel, despite a ceasefire being agreed between Islamic Regime and the US. https://t.co/nr1pEBRj9t

1,640 views1 rt4 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@gmanewsverified5,673,401 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Pakistan's Prime Minister confirms that Iran, the US, and allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire, as reported by Agence France-Presse.

Pakistan PM confirms Iran, US and allies agree to "immediate ceasefire." | via Agence France-Presse https://t.co/RiAnvEzmg5

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,526,905 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

The April 6 proposal delivered by Iran via Pakistan includes a no-attack guarantee and a permanent end to the war.

@SnipingTrends @KobeissiLetter The April 6 proposal Iran delivered via Pakistan (per IRNA, NYT, Axios) is exactly the version Kobeissi posted first: no-attack guarantee, permanent end to war, end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, lift all US sanctions, end regional fights vs allies, reopen Hormuz with $2M/ship fee split Oman, safe passage rules, fees for reconstruction. The April 7 "forced acceptanc...

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NewsWire_USverified147,060 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a US deadline for an Iran deal approaches.

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Russia and China veto UN resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz as US deadline for Iran deal looms.

48,820 views72 rt1,116 likesER:0.0174RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@will_pulido51,192 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Regional sources consulted by CNN expect an agreement between Iran and the US to be finalized before midnight today.

"Según fuentes regionales consultadas por CNN, se espera que se cierre algún tipo de "acuerdo" entre Irán y EEUU antes de la medianoche de hoy". https://t.co/WnndmSgXYG

3,564 views9 rt33 likesER:0.0042RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (1)

RETAIL@lukedavid759 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user believes the ceasefire is fake and a US-Israeli psyop, predicting nuclear weapons will be used against Iran, citing the fake ceasefire as an excuse.

The cease-fire is clearly fake. Iran is not a part of this US-Israeli psyop. They will use nuclear weapons against Iran and cite them breaking this fake ceasefire as the excuse. If you can’t see this pattern, you’re an idiot.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@azankamokaverified119 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user notes that Iran's current points have been rejected by the US multiple times in the past, questioning the current situation.

@WhiteHouse My Take - Almost identical points from Iran have been rejected by the US multiple times in recent weeks and over the years -including during the earlier 15-point framework talks. So what exactly has changed now for Trump to call this a 'workable basis'? This two-week pause (tied only to reopening the Strait of Hormuz) looks more like a tactical breather than a real shift. Bad times a...

58 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FocusOJerusalem381 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

Iran reportedly continued launching ballistic missiles toward Israel despite agreeing to a two-week ceasefire with the US.

FOJ: In spite of agreeing to a two week ceasefire with the US; Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles toward Israel. (I guess their view of the ceasefire doesn’t include ceasing attacks on Israel.)

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MasterHuzzahverified4,926 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire, completely reopening Strait of Hormuz! Congrats to anyone who didn’t sell! Markets are looking continuously bullish, especially with the Clarity Act passing on the horizon. P.S. Japan’s yen carry trade is still unfolding, and #XRP is positioned for massive adoption. 👍

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@vidarlokie80 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran's number one news source reportedly claims they have crushed and humiliated the US.

@RudyGiuliani Attached…from Iran to their people. They say they’ve crushed and humiliated us. Number one news source in Iran and translated from Persian https://t.co/9dXggrCjwR

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@abhishe022571933 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The US has not accepted Iran's 10 conditions, but Iran is now ready to open the Strait of Hormuz.

@BoycottGlazers @ME_Observer_ No, the US has not accepted any 10 conditions of Iran. But now iran is ready to open strait of hormuz

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RapidReport2025verified19,043 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Missile alerts were reported in Saudi Arabia following the US-Iran ceasefire.

BREAKING: Missile alerts in Saudi Arabia after US-Iran ceasefire https://t.co/1Zo80tDAjd

3,863 views5 rt9 likesER:0.0057RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Phoenlxi342 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user predicts Israel will attack Iran, destroying the peace deal, leading the US to blame Israel and continue the war.

@lookner @WW3_Monitor Israel is gonna launch an attack on Iran and destroy this peace deal. The US will then blame Israel and continue the war

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Krennic2017307 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user believes the US will break any agreement with Iran within days.

@chrismartenson the US will break any "agreement" in days. iran is crazy to agree to this

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Jay46811Dverified44 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user believes Iran has buckled and has two weeks to agree to US demands, not dictating peace.

@ElhamParvini @araghchi You’re delusional. How stupid can you be? Iran is dictating the peace. Haha, right! Iran buckled, they’ve got two weeks to agree to what the US wants it to agree to. And Iran is utterly and completely defeated, humiliated, and frankly destroyed. Should Iran not agree to what the US demands, all bets are off.

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AntoinetteXlbverified6,027 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user observes that current sources discussing US-Iran de-escalation and Hormuz do not mention Lebanon or Hezbollah.

⛔️كل هالمصادر بتحكي عن US–Iran de-escalation + Hormuz… ولا واحد منهم بيذكر لبنان أو حزب الله. #لبنان 🇱🇧 https://t.co/d7uulA5NyT

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0060	0.0025	0	+$724,257.7
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9975	800,779.93	+$290,615.85
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9975	620,990.26	+$234,613.22
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0025	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9975	138,947.76	+$50,360.26
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9975	175,760.61	+$47,866.21
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9975	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9975	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9975	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9975	0	+$35,796.86