Trade Report :

Odds Shock: 99% Sure US Forces Will Enter Iran, Per a $99,800 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

0xec981ed70ae69c5cbcac08c1ba063e734f6bafcd

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$99,800

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.998

Entry Price

2026-04-07 20:15:51 ET

Time

0xec981ed70ae69c5cbcac08c1ba063e734f6bafcd placed $99,800 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $168,532,331.858, 24h volume $59,011,240.371, heat level: Very Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

Yes odds at 0.998, market gives 99.8% chance

0.5%

Yes

99.5%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $99,800 becomes $100,000 (profit $200)
If wrong, loses $99,800

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $99,800 on "Yes" for US forces entering Iran, hoping to snag a measly $200 profit. This isn't a trade; it's a liquidity donation with a 0.0:1 risk/reward.

You’re betting $99,800 for a 0.2% return, praying the oracle isn't having an existential crisis. If the Pentagon rebrands a SEAL team as "very active tourists," that $99,800 disappears faster than your motivation on a Monday morning.

Other whales made real money, bagging $290K by buying at $0.63. This guy is playing cleanup crew at the very end, exposing nearly $100K to total loss for pocket change. A catastrophic tail-risk for a microscopic gain. This isn't yield farming; it's gambling on a technicality with your life savings. Bad trade.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$168,532,331.858

24h Volume

$59,011,240.371

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to Yes if active US military personnel deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves to No if this specific condition is not met, excluding entries by intelligence operatives, contractors, or those for diplomatic or accidental reasons.

Timeline

The market's deadline for the event to occur is the listed date, observed in Eastern Time (ET). The rules do not specify a separate resolution date.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of information from credible news reports and sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

It is easy to misunderstand that only deliberate entry into Iran's land territory by active US military for operational reasons counts; entries by intelligence, contractors, or those for diplomatic or accidental reasons do not qualify.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US military Iran

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"Ceasefire"? Don't get lulled. This "peace" is built on quicksand, a 2-week mirage. Iran boasts "historic victory" with 10 demands met; the US says "hold my beer, it's about Hormuz."

It’s a truce as stable as a Jenga tower mid-earthquake. Iraqi PMF just crossed into Iran, prepping for a US ground war. Iran's trust in the deal? Zero. They're still lobbing missiles at Israel, who's already fuming. North Korea even chimed in with a nuclear threat.

The market’s dumping "Yes" on US entry, blinded by the headline. This isn't de-escalation; it's a tactical pause before the next act. Buy the "Yes" shares now. The real play is buying the fear, not selling the fake calm.

KOL — High Relevance (1)

KOL@no_itsmyturnverified141,233 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

PMF fighters from Iraq have reportedly entered Iran to help suppress protests and prepare for a potential US ground operation.

PMF fighters from Iraq 🇮🇶 have reportedly entered Iran 🇮🇷 to help the IRGC suppress potential protests and prepare for the possibility of a US 🇺🇸 ground operation.

22,340 views40 rt161 likesER:0.0068RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@World_Affairs11verified232,405 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

North Korea threatens to use nuclear weapons against the US if the US attacks Iran.

BREAKING: North Korea says it will use nuclear weapon against the US if it attacks Iran. if true there will be world war III https://t.co/up0BQOKpC3

629,423 views1,229 rt5,656 likesER:0.1301RR:2.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@gokhshtein97,067 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

The US military has halted offensive operations against Iran, but defensive measures remain active, as per a US official.

JUST IN: US military halted offensive ops against Iran, but defensive measures remain active, as per a US official.

0 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@gmanewsverified5,673,401 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Pakistan PM confirms Iran, US, and allies have agreed to an immediate ceasefire.

Pakistan PM confirms Iran, US and allies agree to "immediate ceasefire." | via Agence France-Presse https://t.co/RiAnvEzmg5

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,526,904 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Iran's April 6 proposal, delivered via Pakistan, includes a no-attack guarantee and a permanent end to the war.

@SnipingTrends @KobeissiLetter The April 6 proposal Iran delivered via Pakistan (per IRNA, NYT, Axios) is exactly the version Kobeissi posted first: no-attack guarantee, permanent end to war, end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, lift all US sanctions, end regional fights vs allies, reopen Hormuz with $2M/ship fee split Oman, safe passage rules, fees for reconstruction. The April 7 "forced acceptanc...

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranArmyMediaverified43,284 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims Iran achieved a historic victory by forcing the US to accept its 10-point plan, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and enrichment rights.

Supreme national security council: Iran achieved historic victory by forcing criminal US to accept its 10-point plan. US has accepted Iran's control over Strait of Hormuz, enrichment right, removal of all sanctions.

49,287 views182 rt1,137 likesER:0.1104RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Faytuksverified271,130 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims the US has suffered a 'crushing defeat' by being forced to accept Iran's 10-point plan, including continued Iranian control.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council calls this a "crushing defeat" for the US, saying that they've been forced to accept their 10-point plan. Iran claims the US has agreed to continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/rqOSbkeuYV

127,234 views241 rt724 likesER:0.0204RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,421 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran confirms agreement to a ceasefire and claims the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz.

Iran confirms that it has agreed to the ceasefire agreement-Fars Iran adds that the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz, full compensation for war damages, and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

542,038 views584 rt3,149 likesER:0.0100RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GBNEWS916,250 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Shay Khatiri discusses reports that Iran has fired missiles at Israel despite a US-Iran ceasefire.

YP and Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute Shay Khatiri discusses reports that Iran has just fired missiles at Israel, despite a ceasefire being agreed between Islamic Regime and the US. https://t.co/nr1pEBRj9t

1,640 views1 rt4 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@zerohedgeverified2,630,233 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

The US ceasefire will start when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios.

*US CEASEFIRE WILL START WHEN IRAN OPENS STRAIT OF HORMUZ: AXIOS

81,905 views153 rt883 likesER:0.0015RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified500,491 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran claims the US agreed to a commitment to non-aggression, Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of uranium enrichment, and lifting of sanctions.

Iran says the U.S. agreed to: 1—Commitment to non-aggression 2—Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz 3—Acceptance of uranium enrichment 4—Lifting of all primary sanctions 5—Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6—Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions 7—Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions 8—Payment of compensation to Iran 9—Withdrawal of U.S. combat force...

691,427 views1,392 rt5,843 likesER:0.0673RR:1.4Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@FocusOJerusalem381 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles toward Israel despite agreeing to a two-week ceasefire with the US.

FOJ: In spite of agreeing to a two week ceasefire with the US; Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles toward Israel. (I guess their view of the ceasefire doesn’t include ceasing attacks on Israel.)

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MasterHuzzahverified4,926 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The US and Iran have agreed to a 2-week ceasefire, completely reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire, completely reopening Strait of Hormuz! Congrats to anyone who didn’t sell! Markets are looking continuously bullish, especially with the Clarity Act passing on the horizon. P.S. Japan’s yen carry trade is still unfolding, and #XRP is positioned for massive adoption. 👍

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@vidarlokie80 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iranian news sources are reportedly telling their people that they have 'crushed and humiliated' the US.

@RudyGiuliani Attached…from Iran to their people. They say they’ve crushed and humiliated us. Number one news source in Iran and translated from Persian https://t.co/9dXggrCjwR

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@abhishe022571933 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The US has not accepted Iran's 10 conditions, but Iran is now ready to open the Strait of Hormuz.

@BoycottGlazers @ME_Observer_ No, the US has not accepted any 10 conditions of Iran. But now iran is ready to open strait of hormuz

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RapidReport2025verified19,043 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Missile alerts have been reported in Saudi Arabia following the US-Iran ceasefire.

BREAKING: Missile alerts in Saudi Arabia after US-Iran ceasefire https://t.co/1Zo80tDAjd

3,863 views5 rt9 likesER:0.0057RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@M_Christo1410verified25,790 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps threatens to strike US and allied infrastructure, depriving them of oil and gas access for years.

🔥Irańska Gwardia Rewolucyjna: „Uderzymy w infrastrukturę Stanów Zjednoczonych i ich sojuszników w taki sposób, że przez lata zostaną pozbawieni dostępu do ropy i gazu z tego regionu i będą zmuszeni się z niego wycofać.” https://t.co/nx9Rv0PE5W

5,025 views2 rt44 likesER:0.0033RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Oldglorycriesverified29,133 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet comments on past US bombing policies in Muslim countries and Trump's approach to Iran.

Trump should have been nicer to Iran but kept bombing them for 20 years like Bush and Obama did to Muslim countries, while causing the US thousands of casualties. Got it @analilia_mejia

306 views1 rt7 likesER:0.0009RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MMalijavaid187 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

America was not in war with Iran; it was Israel.

@CMShehbaz @NasimZehra But #America was not in war with #Iran. It was #Israel, Sir. You never told us that #America is also a party to this conflict. @HamidMirPAK @MalickViews @WaseemBadami @adeel_azhar @meherbokhari @asmashirazi https://t.co/4H2d2xcOJy

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@katie_k8nurseverified1,656 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The Iran war is unpopular in the US, and the user hopes the US doesn't intervene.

@DjehoutimessouA @Narjes_Rahmati I'm suspecting that too. Unlike Israel, the Iran war is wildly unpopular in the US. So if they do something stupid, I really hope the US doesn't try to bail them out.

34 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@dilanesperverified14,985 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Iran did not charge a toll, implying restraint.

@crowley_gavin @Bridgeofforever Also, it's just important that Iran DIDN'T charge a toll. In other words, I guess maybe they could have if they had bucked world opinion. But they didn't. And then the US and Israel changed the status quo and now they are looking to charge a toll.

36 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0060	0.0025	0	+$724,257.7
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9975	800,779.93	+$290,615.85
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9975	620,990.26	+$234,613.22
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0025	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9975	138,947.76	+$50,360.26
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9975	175,760.61	+$47,866.21
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9975	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9975	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9975	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9975	0	+$35,796.86