US x Iran Ceasefire Likely, Says $92,233 Polymarket Bet
glueeater placed $92,233.38 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.9514 (market gives 95.1% probability). Total market volume $31,453,632.956, 24h volume $14,952,879.742, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.9514
If correct, $92,233.38 becomes $96,945.38 (profit $4,712)
If wrong, loses $92,233
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $92,233 betting on a US x Iran ceasefire, buying "Yes" at 95.1%. That's risking $92,233 to bag a measly $4,712.
This isn't "picking up pennies." This is trying to catch a falling anvil with your teeth for a nickel.
The whale's logic: "US announced ceasefire" equals "mutually agreed ceasefire." Honey, that's like calling a Tinder swipe a marriage certificate. The market rules demand "mutually agreed."
News aggregators are *screaming* contradiction. Iran reportedly rejected the truce, even fired missiles during Trump's announcement. Unilateral ain't mutual, chief.
The *real* smart money already bought "Yes" at prices like $0.0192, sitting on $442,854 PnL. This whale? They just provided prime exit liquidity. Congrats, you're the last dance partner at the disco, holding the bag.
A truly awful trade. Good luck explaining that $92,233 loss to your spouse.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the deadline. This agreement must be publicly announced, mutually agreed, and confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming consensus of media.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this specific time.
The outcome will be determined by official statements from the US and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also suffice.
The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect later. Informal talks, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks do not count as an official ceasefire.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran US peace, Iran US conflict
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Trump declared a 2-week ceasefire, markets popped like champagne corks. Oil tanked, crypto surged with $160M short liquidations. But pump the brakes, buttercups. This isn't a done deal, it's a diplomatic *déjà vu*.
Iran's 10-point counter-proposal demands *permanent* peace. WSJ reports they *rejected* opening the Strait for a temporary truce. Meanwhile, Hebrew Media says Iran fired missiles at Israel *during* Trump's announcement. Talk about a "ceasefire"! It's more unilateral than a Kanye rant.
Polymarket's $222K insider profit? That's the real tell. This isn't a bilateral agreement; it's a US wish list. "Yes" shares are walking into a trapdoor. Fade the market's naive exuberance. This truce is flimsier than a politician's promise.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9550 | 477,543.66 | +$442,853.94 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9550 | 355,555.18 | +$332,724.27 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9550 | 182,695.65 | +$206,959.79 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9550 | 1,663.98 | +$195,266.98 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9550 | 251,472.76 | +$182,824.69 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9550 | 200,000 | +$167,695.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9550 | 155,118.78 | +$152,160.62 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9550 | 174,764.3 | +$148,908.8 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9550 | 57,362.11 | +$147,995.08 |
| 10 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | Yes | 0.4766 | 0.9550 | 28,622.06 | +$134,825.63 |