$86,186 On US x Iran Ceasefire — Polymarket Whale Bet
MajoriT placed $86,185.97 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.9327 (market gives 93.3% probability). Total market volume $31,035,700.358, 24h volume $14,535,011.027, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.9327
If correct, $86,185.97 becomes $92,404.97 (profit $6,219)
If wrong, loses $86,186
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just dropped $86,186 on "US x Iran ceasefire by... Yes" at 93.3% odds. For a paltry $6,219 profit. This isn't trading, it's *donating*.
Risking $86,186 to make $6,219? That's a 0.1:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Like picking up pennies in front of a geopolitical steamroller.
While Trump tweets "ceasefire," Iran's MFA says "LOL, no," and fires missiles. The resolution rule demands a "mutually agreed halt." This whale apparently skipped reading comprehension day.
The smart money, who bought "Yes" for pennies (like the top whale at $0.0276), is laughing all the way to the bank. This whale is their exit liquidity, providing a convenient, expensive cushion.
This isn't FOMO, it's FOSO: Fear Of Sitting Out... and losing your shirt. A masterclass in buying the absolute top, ignoring reality, and betting your entire stack on a tweet. Absolutely *cooked*.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a mutual halt in direct military engagement by the deadline. It resolves "No" if no such formal, publicly confirmed agreement is reached by that time.
The key deadline is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET, by which time the official ceasefire agreement must be reached, regardless of when the actual ceasefire begins.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the US and Iranian governments, or alternatively, by a widespread agreement among credible news sources confirming the ceasefire.
Informal talks, unilateral pauses, or temporary breaks in fighting do not count; only a formal, mutual agreement to stop military engagement qualifies, even if the actual ceasefire starts later. Broader peace deals only count if they explicitly include this specific halt in fighting.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Trump declared a 2-week US-Iran ceasefire.
CNN says Israel agreed. Oil dipped.
Sounds like peace, right? Wrong.
Iran’s MFA explicitly rejected it, calling it a "pause to replenish forces." No, they aren't planning a spa day.
While Trump announced, Iran was firing missiles at Israel. This isn't a ceasefire; it’s Schrödinger’s peace plan.
Markets are buying the headline like it's 2008 and Lehman Bros. is fine.
But a whale just splashed 20,000 "No" shares for April 7. They're betting on reality, not wishful thinking.
Trump's Doomsday Plane was spotted too. Not exactly a dove of peace.
This "agreement" is a unilateral pipe dream. Fade the headline hype. The smart money says "No" to this diplomatic charade.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9240 | 477,543.66 | +$428,050.08 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9240 | 355,555.18 | +$321,702.06 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9240 | 182,695.65 | +$201,296.23 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9240 | 98,336.28 | +$191,063.7 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9240 | 251,472.76 | +$175,029.04 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9240 | 200,000 | +$161,495.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9240 | 155,118.78 | +$147,351.93 |
| 8 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9240 | 57,362.11 | +$146,216.86 |
| 9 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9240 | 174,764.3 | +$143,491.1 |
| 10 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | Yes | 0.4367 | 0.9240 | 26,400.06 | +$133,996.1 |