Polymarket: $199,200 Bet US x Iran Ceasefire WILL Happen (99.6%)
scottilicious placed $199,200 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $66,146,756.765, 24h volume $46,400,094.498, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996
If correct, $199,200 becomes $200,000 (profit $800)
If wrong, loses $199,200
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some whale just dropped $199,200 to snag a measly $800 on a US x Iran ceasefire.
99.6% chance? Sure. But risking nearly $200K for $800 profit? That's not "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller," it's auditioning for the Darwin Awards.
The *real* smart money bought in at cents, now swimming in $100K+ profits. This whale is showing up when the party's over, trying to swipe the last stale chip.
And this market? A landmine. Iran's threatening to bail over Lebanon. That "official ceasefire" could evaporate faster than your crypto portfolio in a bear market.
Polymarket's oracle isn't a magic eight-ball. If Iran retracts, that $199,200 is gone.
This isn't a trade. It's a high-stakes lottery ticket where the only prize is a tiny fraction of your entry fee. Bad trade. Brutally bad.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and Iran publicly announce and mutually agree to halt direct military engagement by the deadline. It resolves to "No" if no such official agreement is reached, or if it's only an informal understanding, unilateral pause, or a temporary measure.
The agreement must be officially reached by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, for the market to resolve "Yes." The actual date the ceasefire takes effect does not need to be before this deadline.
The outcome will be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. An overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.
Broader peace deals only qualify if they explicitly include a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement. The market resolves based on when the agreement is reached, not when the ceasefire officially begins.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 38
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US x Iran ceasefire"? More like a two-week Schrödinger's truce. The headline screams "peace," but this agreement is a paper tiger with a gaping Lebanon-sized hole.
Pakistan, bless its naive heart, claims Lebanon's included. But Netanyahu, the IDF, and even Trump are screaming "Nah, fam!" Israel's exploiting this loophole, bombing Beirut like it's a Tuesday. Iran's Tasnim news agency already drew a red line: keep bombing, and this "ceasefire" becomes a historical footnote faster than a bad tweet.
The real tell? Strait of Hormuz reopening odds just cratered to 31%. That's smart money sniffing out the trap. Short-term "Yes" bets might scrape by, but for anything longer than a TikTok trend, you're playing Russian roulette. Fade the peace porn. Bitcoin's $72,000 pump? A dead cat bounce waiting for Iran to pull the plug.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (1)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (2)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 212,404.57 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9955 | 212,404.57 | +$193,107.01 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9955 | 155,118.78 | +$158,442.93 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |