Trade Report :

US forces enter Iran: $221,131 Says Yes, but Will It Happen?

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

scanner (0x989b67c86daa5675c2a7d0ee4107d2a38f628ef3)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$221,130.54

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.998

Entry Price

2026-04-08 11:31:43 ET

Time

scanner placed $221,130.54 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $240,771,322.281, 24h volume $103,372,933.273, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

Yes odds at 0.998, market gives 99.8% chance

0.3%

Yes

99.8%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $221,130.54 becomes $221,573.54 (profit $443)
If wrong, loses $221,131

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Risking $221,131 to make $443? This whale isn't trading, they're playing Russian roulette with a rubber bullet, hoping for a 0.2% return. Buying "Yes" at 99.8% on "US forces enter Iran" is less a bet, more a prayer that Reddit rumors of an Isfahan landing are gospel.

The true OGs cleaned up, buying at $0.54-$0.78. This guy? He’s showing up to the party after everyone’s gone home, trying to steal a soggy chip.

The resolution rules are a legal minefield: "military personnel" vs. "intelligence operatives." If it was the CIA, not the DoD, that $221,131 vanishes faster than your New Year's resolutions. This isn't picking up pennies; it's licking them off a steamroller. A truly terrible trade. You're not a whale, you're a goldfish in a shark tank.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$240,771,322.281

24h Volume

$103,372,933.273

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves "No," specifically excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, or those entering for diplomatic reasons.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events that occur up to the listed date, which is specified in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The final resolution will be based on a consensus of information from credible news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding could be that any US military presence counts, but only deliberate entry into land territory by active personnel for operational purposes qualifies, excluding accidental entry or diplomatic visits.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran invasion, US military Iran, US troops Iran

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The "US forces enter Iran" market is less a prediction, more a full-blown epistemological crisis. Forget D-Day; retail is betting on the wrong war.

Reports of Kharg Island explosions, a "failed American landing" in Isfahan for uranium, and US choppers taking small arms fire aren't *Saving Private Ryan*. They're *Zero Dark Thirty* shadows. Trump's "wipe out civilization" rhetoric and Mark Levin's atomic musings are just noise.

Sources? A swamp of "trust me bro" and Alex Jones's latest fever dream. Those 13,000 targets are pure *Call of Duty* fan-fiction.

The real trap: betting on a conventional invasion against 14 million mobilized Iranians. The opportunity? The fine print. If a single special ops boot, a downed chopper, or an airspace breach resolves "Yes," whales are already scooping low odds.

Retail is chasing a ghost. Whales are reading the contract. The market's Achilles' heel is the resolution criteria. Bet on semantics, not saber-rattling.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@FurkanGozukaraverified238,881 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A top US military official admitted that American helicopters were engaged by "every single person in Iran who had a small arms weapon," indicating US military presence and engagement in Iran.

The Western media narrative just collapsed. A top US military official admits that American helicopters were engaged by "every single person in Iran who had a small arms weapon." The Iranian people are fiercely defending their homeland against the US invasion! https://t.co/UH8wdTvIvH

15,467 views309 rt1,017 likesER:0.0301RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@austinsilverfxverified82,164 flwQ:5/5analysisbullish

The US destroyed over 90% of Iran's conventional navy fleet and 80% of its air defense systems, striking more than 13,000 targets in an operation in Iran.

The US destroyed more than 90% of Iran's conventional navy fleet 80% of Iran's air defence systems destroyed US joint forces struck more than 13,000 targets in Iran operation The most powerful military in the world is not to be f'd with

1,805 views0 rt14 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RealAlexJonesverified4,495,214 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Trump threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization, Iran cut contact with the US, and Israel is bombing Kharg Island ahead of a US ground invasion.

Emergency Tuesday Broadcast: Nuclear Attack Fears Mount After Trump Threatens To Wipe Out All Of Iranian Civilization! Iran Cuts All Contact With US! Meanwhile, Israel Is Bombing Kharg Island Ahead Of US Ground Invasion! Must-Watch/Share! https://t.co/q9T9AlTwc2

563,660 views338 rt1,059 likesER:0.0017RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RealAlexJonesverified4,495,214 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

President Trump publicly threatened to wipe out Iran's "whole civilization," while Israel is bombing Kharg Island ahead of a US ground invasion.

EMERGENCY TUESDAY BROADCAST: President Trump Uses The Legal Definition Of Genocide In His Public Threat To Wipe Out Iran's "Whole Civilization!" Meanwhile, Israel Is Bombing Kharg Island Ahead Of US Ground Invasion! PLUS, US Ambassador Mike Waltz BOOED As He Mentions "Trump's Peacemaking!" Top Russian Military Expert Victor Bout Joins Alex Jones To Warn That Trump Is 1 Inch From Crossing A Red Lin...

128,637 views83 rt352 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IRanMediacoverified121,354 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

14 million Iranians have reportedly volunteered to defend their homeland, indicating a massive surge in readiness.

BREAKING: 14 MILLION Iranians stand ready to defend their homeland! Iran, with a population of 90 million, reports a massive surge in volunteers—14 million citizens are stepping forward to defend their country against a potential US invasion.

38,904 views123 rt950 likesER:0.0281RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@OpenSourceZoneverified45,250 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

Estimated death tolls for a projected 2026 Iran war include 7,300 Iranians, 1,461 Lebanese, 39 Israelis, and 15 US casualties (7 in combat).

Estimated Death Toll in the 2026 Iran war 🇮🇷 Iran: 7,300 🇱🇧 Lebanon: 1,461 🇮🇱 Israel: 39 🇺🇸 USA: 15 (7 in combat) https://t.co/TRd7jqPcSE

23,411 views55 rt607 likesER:0.0377RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@OpenSourceZoneverified45,250 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

Estimated death tolls for a projected 2026 Iran war include 7,300 Iranians, 1,530 Lebanese, 39 Israelis, 28 Iraqis, and 15 US casualties (7 in combat).

Estimated Death Toll in the 2026 Iran war 🇮🇷 Iran: 7,300 🇱🇧 Lebanon: 1,530 🇮🇱 Israel: 39 🇮🇶 Iraq: 28 🇺🇸 USA: 15 (7 in combat) https://t.co/TRd7jqPcSE

18,408 views41 rt265 likesER:0.0240RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified507,046 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

14 million Iranians have reportedly volunteered to defend their homeland, indicating a massive surge in readiness.

39,475 views104 rt638 likesER:0.0054RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@HiikbunCS1 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

While taking Kharg Island might be simple for the US, Iran would heavily shell US forces attempting to hold it, making prevention difficult.

@FMultiplier4 Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s that simple. Taking Kharg Island is very simple for us but Iran would 100% shell US forces that attempt to hold it and that would be hard to prevent without an invasion of greater Iran. Not only that, they would mine the strait at that point.

11 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:11.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@EwanMacKennaverified60,146 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author claims that a US invasion of Iran has been a shambles, achieving nothing and costing everything.

@TheConexJournal @Niall_Boylan So it couldn't be touched. Iran wants to protect what it can protect itself with. This US invasion has been a shambles to achieve nothing and cost everything.

57 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (2)

KOL@Borg_Cryptosverified117,921 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran announced that they are ready to attack the USA.

🚨 HOLY SHIT IRAN JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THEY ARE READY TO ATTACK USA

121,590 views100 rt1,015 likesER:0.0256RR:1.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranUpdatesNowverified53,842 flwQ:1/5emotionbullish

#US is planning something BIG against #IRAN - They want to destroy #IRAN

2,586 views2 rt28 likesER:0.0013RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@revoltinghippie45,409 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US-Israeli airstrikes reportedly destroyed a synagogue in Tehran, Iran.

US-Israeli airstrikes destroyed a synagogue in Tehran, Iran. Iranian and Iraqi Jews, Muslims and Christians fought one another in the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980 US backed proxy war. https://t.co/ENGJh3QiMB

247 views2 rt5 likesER:0.0010RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@_TheLieLamaaverified7,765 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Explosions are reported on Kharg Island, a key oil export hub in Iran, reportedly hit by US-Israel forces, leading to speculation about a ground invasion.

. #BREAKING : So is this the beginning of the much anticipated ground invasion in Iran ? Explosions reported on Kharg Island, #Iran. The island, a key oil export hub, was reportedly hit by US- #Israel multiple strikes. https://t.co/MXmhHWCgBW

868 views11 rt11 likesER:0.0297RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MpeseProud2,781 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran confirmed that a failed American landing operation in Isfahan province was an attempt by US troops to seize enriched uranium, not a rescue mission.

⛔️BREAKING🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱🚨‼️ ⛔️#Iran confirmed that a failed American landing operation wasn't a rescue mission as Trump regime claims‼️ ⛔️US Troops were after enriched Uranium in Isfahan province and got obliterated by #Irán‼️ ⛔️The 2nd failed invasion attempt‼️ ⛔️US lost 12 aircrafts‼️ https://t.co/9erlHhrpQx

181 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0007RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ZIYADLOGOS960 flwQ:3/5firsthandbullish

America is reportedly attacking Iran right now.

@HothaAli @hanifaalyammama America is literally attacking Iran right now

174 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0010RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ErinShaleah1,047 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Conservative commentator Mark Levin drew a parallel between the WWII atomic bombing of Japan and a potential US ground invasion of Iran, as reported by The Economic Times.

Will the US nuke Iran? Conservative political commentator Mark Levin uses World War II atomic bombing of Japan to draw a parallel with ground invasion of Iran - The Economic Times https://t.co/UN673arNBk

20 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@vsirnateverified20,572 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The author worries that the current ceasefire is a pause for the US to prepare for a ground invasion of Iran, while Israel keeps Iran militarily engaged.

This is awful. I am deeply worried that the ceasefire is just a breather for the US to prep a ground invasion while Israel keeps doing enough to keep Iran militarily engaged and perhaps strategically exhaust it in the next two weeks. Israel doesn’t know what a ceasefire means and this particularly deadly wave of strikes is definitely a signal for Iran.

87 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@webdevjeffus2,224 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Iran is not beatable without a massive ground invasion over several years, suggesting the current US actions have only strengthened them.

@kerwau @AdamKinzinger Doesn’t even matter. All they need are cheap drones to control the strait. Iran is not beatable without a massive ground invasion over several years. All we’ve done is made them angrier at us and more determined than ever to defy us.

6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@gnomeddotcom472 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author suggests that avoiding a US ground invasion of Iran, in exchange for Iran giving up enriched uranium and allowing access, would be a victory for Trump.

If Iran: Gives us their enriched uranium We get access to ensure they never enrich it again We don't do a ground invasion How is this not a W for Trump? Would have been nice if "the people" had risen up and overthrown IRGC but the nukes are the primary US security goal by far.

18 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RhondaGaradverified12,203 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author claims a US ground invasion fell into Iran's military trap.

This is a must watch. Wath how the US ground invasion fell into Iran's military trap.

287 views4 rt11 likesER:0.0075RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@hindus4711,386 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

Pakistan faces a dilemma regarding its defense pact with Saudi Arabia and the potential consequences if it allows the US to use its bases to attack Iran.

@NobelJohn3 Pak is stuck on both sides if they go with saudi arabia according to defense pact it will be chckd …. If it lets US use its bases to attack iran gets chkd While middle east is still getting attacked Dnt for pak Shia Inside Pak In the case of ground invasion into Iran

40 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (9)

RETAIL@HderWald256 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Iranians consider the US support for the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980 and the subsequent war as the worst offense.

@RussellDutton @XarakZ @WarMonitor3 …The worst offense, as far as the Iranians are concerned is the US support for the Iraqi invasion Iran in 1980 and the bloody war that followed.

20 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@11king_kelly7 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The invasion by Saddam was assisted by the US, Hezbollah and Hamas are controlled by Iran, and US sanctions are mainly for Iran's nuclear program.

@techwithdeen @HarmlessHQ The invasion by Saddam was done by Iraq and was assisted by US and some other countries, the Hezbollah and Hamas is controlled by Iran, the US sanctions is mainly for their nuclear issues, the houthi and yemen are local movements not controlled by Iran or the government

9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Z1goter41 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The US sponsored Saddam's invasion of Iran, which killed hundreds of thousands, and helped Saddam's WMD program during the war.

@DuaneKnesek @BobMurphyEcon @DineshDSouza 2. Or how US sponsored Saddam's invasion of Iran which killed hundreds of thousands. During the war US also helped Saddam's WMD program and they were used against Iranian soldiers. Or how during the same war america shot down an Iranian civilian liner and never apologize for it.

21 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AminaAmmar510714 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The author claims Israelis removed the Shah regime and asks who issued a fatwa against a US invasion.

@Abdullahi2A @MarioNawfal Israelis removed the shah regime& bought this one. The shah regime was non existent in the Iraq Iran war. Who gave a fatwa saying its haram to be against the USA invasion of Iraq? Who's militias supported the US soldiers in the2003 invasion Khomaeini landed in Iran via air France

10 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@misfitzai550 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The author believes a perceived US victory is fake and that Iran can never give up its uranium.

@thatdayin1992 Hassan ! In my opinion i think it was written to show to the world that Us won this . Trump won but its a fake shi. Behind the doors ! Iran can never give Uranium. Even they tried doin ground invasion failed . They have strait in hands. Nothin can be done. We won . Let him bluff

35 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@US_IQEng21Azverified38,002 flwQ:1/5emotionbullish

Fucking Iran Your time is up….. https://t.co/h0UsixxPZI

512 views0 rt15 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@52ashessverified935 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

Between the Epstein Files, data centers, the poisoning of our skies, weather modification, the war in Iran for Israel, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, Israel’s mass murder of people in Gaza, and the gall of NASA using a fake moon mission to distract us all, I’m tapped out. To hell with our entire government. We are going to have to save ourselves. Wake up.

38 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@kalkiverse08verified4,733 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

what is the latest update on Iran US war ?

2,292 views0 rt15 likesER:0.0032RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@IoulandaLverified5,941 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

We must STOP this takeover/invasion/conquering. WE cannot/WILL NOT become the Iran, Palestine, Somalia etc, of the west. QUIT VOTING FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO 💀 ☠️ US, OUR COUNTRY, OUR WAY OF LIFE. Import the 3rd world, become the 3rd world. VOTE REPUBLICAN!

16 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0025	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9975	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9975	620,990.26	+$234,613.22
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0025	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9975	116,947.76	+$50,371.26
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9975	121,377.48	+$47,893.4
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9975	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9975	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9975	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9975	0	+$35,796.86