Trade Report : 

99.9% Hubert Hurkacz Loses Monte Carlo, Per $94,704 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
Ieirigk733   (0xaaaf7f5294be3f594ce4a648b957d39c69296c31)
PolyMarket : Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi
$94,704.29
Trade Amount
SELL Hubert Hurkacz
Trade Side
0.999
Entry Price
Time

Ieirigk733 placed $94,704.29 SELL Hubert Hurkacz on Polymarket, betting on "Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $500,220.561, 24h volume $497,427.723, heat level: Active.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Hubert Hurkacz at 0.999

Hubert Hurkacz odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance
Hubert Hurkacz
98.3%
Luciano Darderi
1.8%
Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $94,704.29 becomes $94,799.29 (profit $95)
If wrong, loses $94,704

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Selling $94,704 of Hurkacz shares for a $95 'loss' after he *already won*? This whale isn't losing money, they're buying time. At 99.9% odds, this isn't a bet, it's a "get out of jail free" card from oracle limbo.

Risking $94,704 to make $95 looks like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, but the steamroller already passed. That $95? A speed-pass fee to immediately unlock $94,704.

Clearing 19% of market volume shows they meant business. Other top whales already did the same, showing this isn't 'going alone,' it's 'leading the charge' to redeploy capital into the injury-riddled Monte Carlo chaos.

Pure genius. This whale isn't playing checkers; they're playing 4D chess with opportunity cost. A masterclass in capital velocity. Take notes, degens.

Market Context: Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano DarderiMarket Page →

Total Volume
$500,220.561
24h Volume
$497,427.723
Heat
Active
End Date
2026-04-13
Created
2026-04-04
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if he advances, or 'Luciano Darderi' if he advances. It resolves 50-50 if the match is canceled, tied, delayed over 7 days without a winner, or ends in a walkover; however, if the match starts but one player advances due to opponent's retirement or disqualification, it resolves to that advancing player.

Timeline

The match is scheduled for April 6; if it is delayed beyond 7 days from this date without a winner, the market will resolve 50-50.

Source

The outcome will be determined primarily by official information from the ATP Tour, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a backup source.

Special Cases

Cancellations, ties, and delays beyond 7 days without a winner all result in a 50-50 resolution. If a match starts but one player advances due to opponent's retirement or disqualification, that player is declared the winner, but a walkover before the match starts results in a 50-50 resolution.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is the difference between a walkover before the match (50-50 resolution) and a match ending early due to retirement or disqualification (resolves to advancing player). The 7-day delay limit for a 50-50 resolution is also a crucial detail.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Monte Carlo Masters, Hurkacz, Darderi

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Hurkacz vs. Darderi: Market settled. Hubi snatched a 2-1 win.

Retail, like @AnezOlana, who bet Darderi 2-0 on Hubi's 7-match losing streak and "knee rumors"? You just got served a reality check.

That losing streak? Broken. But Hubi's victory was less a triumph, more a Pyrrhic win. Pushed to 3 sets. Those "knee rumors" now echo louder.

Monte Carlo is a physical graveyard: Mensik, Tiafoe, Bautista Agut all out.

Whales aren't chasing Hubi's "breakthrough." They're smelling blood. His next match? Fade. This tournament devours players. Don't be retail's next casualty.

KOL — High Relevance (1)

KOL@z_kortuverified28,921 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Hubert Hurkacz broke a seven-match losing streak by defeating Luciano Darderi 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-1 in the first round.
HUBERT HURKACZ Z PRZEŁOMOWYM ZWYCIĘSTWEM! 🙌 Nasz reprezentant przerwał passę siedmiu przegranych spotkań z rzędu, pokonując rozstawionego z "15" Luciano Darderiego 7:6(4), 5:7, 6:1 w pierwszej rundzie ATP Masters 1000 w Monte Carlo. W kolejnej fazie zmierzy się ze zwycięzcą meczu Damir Dzumhur - Fabian Marozsan. Bośniak wskoczył do drabinki za kontuzjowanego Jakuba Mensika. 📸 ATP Tour | #Role...
675 views10 rt97 likesER:0.0103RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (8)

KOL@tennistemple_en1 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Jakub Mensik withdrew from the Monte-Carlo Masters due to a toe injury, with Damir Dzumhur stepping in to face Fabian Marozsan.
Jakub Mensik Withdraws from Monte-Carlo Masters: Toe Injury Forces Late Forfeit, Damir Dzumhur Steps In to Face Fabian Marozsan #ATPMasters1000 #Dzumhur #Marozsan #Mensik #MonteCarlo 🎾 https://t.co/FES0kouVi5 https://t.co/5D6KbA97Dc
9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:9.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@UniversTennisverified91,928 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard withdrew from the Monte-Carlo Masters 1000 due to a wrist injury.
🔴 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard déclare FORFAIT pour le Masters 1000 de Monte-Carlo à cause d’une blessure au poignet. 🤕🇫🇷 https://t.co/tfD1kNmV8g
34,546 views15 rt574 likesER:0.0095RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
KOL@UniversTennisverified91,928 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Frances Tiafoe withdrew from the Monte-Carlo Masters 1000 after his semi-final in Houston and will be replaced by a lucky loser.
🔴 Pas de PARTIE 3 entre Frances Tiafoe et Terence Atmane. ❌ Après sa demi-finale à Houston, l’Américain déclare FORFAIT pour le Masters 1000 de Monte-Carlo. Il sera remplacé par un lucky loser. https://t.co/cdVzTgBvvj
33,212 views17 rt624 likesER:0.0105RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
KOL@DrawsTennis15,820 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
This tweet provides information about the qualifiers placed in the Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000.
Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 - Qualifiers placed https://t.co/Qy5hLaM42M
37,595 views24 rt151 likesER:0.0399RR:2.4Source: X/Twitter
KOL@SchedulesTennis13,733 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
This tweet provides the order of play for the Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 on Tuesday, April 07, 2026.
Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 Order of play - Tuesday, April 07, 2026 https://t.co/5JqwMBxHbi
168,740 views54 rt245 likesER:0.0965RR:12.3Source: X/Twitter
KOL@WeAreTennisITAverified59,376 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Jannik Sinner won 6-3, 6-0 against Humbert and advanced to the third round of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
36 AND COUNTING... 🦊🇲🇨 Cambia la superficie, cambia il continente, non cambia il risultato: Sinner vince 6-3; 6-0 contro Humbert e avanza al terzo turno del Masters di Monte-Carlo 🔥 Per l'azzurro si tratta del 36esimo set consecutivo vinto in un torneo 1000 dopo Parigi, Indian Wells e Miami, si inizia a carburare anche sulla terra rossa 👏 Un match pressoché perfetto in cui il N.2 al mondo ...
1 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@UniversTennisverified91,928 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Jannik Sinner defeated Ugo Humbert to qualify for the 1/8 finals in Monte-Carlo, marking his 13th consecutive victory and 36th consecutive set won in Masters 1000.
13E VICTOIRE CONSÉCUTIVE 🔥 De retour après son Sunshine Double, Jannik Sinner écrase Ugo Humbert et se qualifie pour les 1/8 de finale à Monte-Carlo 36e set consécutif remporté en Masters 1000. 🥶 https://t.co/Pq8gQgJ2P9
530 views10 rt42 likesER:0.0026RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@Tiempodetenis1verified94,814 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Tomás Etcheverry defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 in the first round of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
💪🇦🇷 ¡TRIUNFAZO ARGENTINO! Tomás Etcheverry derrotó a Grigor Dimitrov por 6-4, 2-6 y 6-3 en la primera ronda del Masters 1000 de Monte-Carlo. https://t.co/SVLco222c8
999 views0 rt26 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (2)

RETAIL@brckt_ioverified138 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Hubert Hurkacz defeated Luciano Darderi (7-6, 5-7, 6-1) in the Round of 64 of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters by converting more break points (5/12 vs 3/9).
Hubert Hurkacz gets the nod over Luciano Darderi (7.7-6.4 5-7 6-1) in Round of 64 of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. Hurkacz triumphed by converting more break points at 5/12 compared to Darderi's 3/9 while saving a higher percentage of those he faced (6/9). His serve proved dominant with 11 aces and an 83% win rate on first-serve points versus Darderi's 63%.
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AnezOlana628 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
The user is betting on Luciano Darderi to win 2-0 against Hubert Hurkacz at +145 odds, expressing concern about Hurkacz's knees.
Monte Carlo A bet that everyone is probably playing. I'm just putting some pocket change on it as well. Luciano Darderi 2-0 Hubert Hurkacz (+145 @novig) Will Hubies knees hold up?? I hope he is going to be okay. I'm sure he will show people he is stronger than he looks! https://t.co/jCyVjb4OGt
1,523 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0032RR:2.4Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@quindicizeroverified26,734 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Jakub Mensik withdrew from the Monte-Carlo Masters 1000, and Damir Dzumhur will enter as a Lucky Loser to challenge Fabian Marozsan in the first round.
Ultim'ora 🚨 Jakub Mensik si ritira dal Masters 1000 di Monte-Carlo: Damir Dzumhur entrerà al suo posto come Lucky Loser e sfiderà Fabian Marozsan nel primo round
13,485 views4 rt133 likesER:0.0080RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AvantageTennis_verified6,522 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Jakub Mensik withdrew from the Monte Carlo Masters due to injury, and Damir Dzumhur will replace him to face Fabian Marozsan.
🚨 OFFICIEL ! Alors qu’il devait entrer sur le court face à Fabian Marozsan, Jakub Mensik déclare finalement forfait pour le Masters 1000 de Monte Carlo. 🇨🇿🤕 Damir Dzumhur prend sa place dans le tableau. 🍀 https://t.co/ffcyQZqbjp
2,773 views2 rt62 likesER:0.0156RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@brckt_ioverified138 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Martin Etcheverry Tomas defeated Grigor Dimitrov (6-4, 2-6, 6-3) in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Round of 64 by dominating first-serve points at 79%.
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Round of 64: Martin Etcheverry Tomas walks away with the W over Grigor Dimitrov (6-4 2-6 6-3). Etcheverry prevailed by dominating first-serve points at 79% compared to Dimitrov's 64%, which powered his 79% service games won despite identical 3/3 break point conversions for both. Dimitrov saved one match point but could not overcome Etcheverry's serving edge.
61 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0072RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@BreakPointBRverified43,096 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
João Fonseca had a solid debut at the Monte-Carlo Masters 1000, winning 6/2 6/3 against Diallo and will face Rinderkinech in the second round.
Estreia BEM sólida do João Fonseca no Masters 1000 de Monte-Carlo, 6/2 6/3 sobre o Diallo (#38). Enfrenta o Rinderkinech (#27) na segunda rodada… e pode pegar o Daniil Medvedev (#10) na sequência. https://t.co/2EZS4IdSpS
8,666 views5 rt266 likesER:0.0085RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@mckinnon88877442 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
This tweet lists the schedule for ATP 1000 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters Court 9 matches, including Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Cristian Garin, Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana, and Alexander Blockx vs Damir Dzumhur.
ATP 1000 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters Court 9 Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Cristian Garin 11 am M.M Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana 1 pm M.M Alexander Blockx vs Damir Dzumhur 3 pm M.M
348 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TheTennisTalker18,119 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Bergs and Sinner defeated Machac and Ruud 6-4, 7-5 in Monte Carlo Masters doubles.
Bergs 🇧🇪 & Sinner 🇮🇹 defeat Machac 🇨🇿 and Ruud 🇳🇴 in Monte Carlo Masters doubles 6-4 7-5
458 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AvantageTennis_verified6,522 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Roberto Bautista-Agut retired after 4 games, allowing Matteo Berrettini to advance to the 2nd round of the Monte Carlo Masters, where he will face Daniil Medvedev.
Roberta Bautista-Agut (n°81) jette l’éponge après 4 jeux et 21 minutes et laisse Matteo Berrettini (n°90) filer au 2e tour du Masters 1000 de Monte Carlo. 🇮🇹🍀 Il affrontera Daniil Medvedev pour une place en 1/8e. 🔜 https://t.co/zhYwaC8Zgk
1,597 views1 rt24 likesER:0.0067RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AvantageTennis_verified6,522 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Francisco Cerundolo eliminated Stefanos Tsitsipas in two sets, marking his 50th career victory in Masters 1000 and advancing to the 2nd round in Monte-Carlo.
CERUNDOLO ENFONCE TSITSIPAS 😳 Francisco Cerundolo élimine Stefanos Tsitsipas en deux sets et signe la 50e victoire de sa carrière en Masters 1000 pour avancer au 2e à Monte-Carlo. 🇦🇷🔥 Le Grec va chuter au mieux à la 65e place mondiale. 🤯📉 https://t.co/uq8qYfXiRo
2,487 views2 rt36 likesER:0.0117RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Tennis_Metricsverified4,660 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral
A bet of over 21.0 total games in the Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini match at Monte Carlo Masters is recommended with odds of 1.699.
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini – Monte Carlo Masters 🎾 Bet of the Day 🚨 Bet: Over 21.0 games in the match (total games) Odds: 1.699 (European) / -143 (American) Stake: 1u Berrettini is still searching for rhythm after his comeback: big peaks, but poor follow-ups in smaller events. However, early arrival in Monte Carlo, favorable conditions, and a very good matchup (7–1 H2H vs...
1,435 views0 rt9 likesER:0.0019RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TennisBakeryverified3,199 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Jannik Sinner defeated Ugo Humbert 6-3, 6-0 to reach the 3rd round in Monte Carlo, marking his first 6-0 set of the season.
Jannik Sinner defeats Ugo Humber 6-3, 6-0 to reach the 3rd round in Monte Carlo. After winning 8x sets 6-1 in 2026, it is a first 6-0 set of the season for Sinner!
122 views2 rt9 likesER:0.0153RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Hubert Hurkacz positions. Largest position: 58,148.01 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xaaaf7f5294be3f594ce4a648b957d39c69296c31Hubert Hurkacz0.54980.99950+$42,575.41
20x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875eaHubert Hurkacz0.66270.999558,148.01+$19,583.61
30x507e52ef684ca2dd91f90a9d26d149dd3288beaeHubert Hurkacz0.46200.999522,698.6+$15,490.62
40x972bf37cae72a169e17ae0e6179821d5778b78baHubert Hurkacz0.50120.999525,050.8+$12,482.21
50x5aa981521b4e94fee3b3bf18fe441f62e865febeHubert Hurkacz0.54850.99957,112.75+$7,639.66
60x0767aa79d578aead1c849fd9f0fdc6cdb50336b0Hubert Hurkacz0.30990.99959,366.26+$6,458.04
70xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319Hubert Hurkacz0.34370.99950+$3,162.55
80x8b5239494dd65eed682f0d9f0481ddeae4ff568eHubert Hurkacz0.76990.99950.01+$3,073.08
90xde9f7f4e77a1595623ceb58e469f776257ccd43cHubert Hurkacz0.54050.99956,633.8+$3,044.49
100xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906bHubert Hurkacz0.33000.99954,315.96+$2,889.53
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