Trade Report :

99.7% Sure: US Forces Won't Enter Iran, Per $75,174 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

Coldwind01 (0xf90172978a803cceb5a2f6b96dd3e8a2c025d917)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$75,174.04

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.997

Entry Price

2026-04-07 06:50:47 ET

Time

Coldwind01 placed $75,174.04 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $125,716,958.401, 24h volume $46,072,035.705, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997

Yes odds at 0.997, market gives 99.7% chance

0.3%

Yes

99.8%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $75,174.04 becomes $75,400.04 (profit $226)
If wrong, loses $75,174

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just sold $75,174 of "US forces enter Iran" YES shares, pocketing a paltry $226. A 0.0:1 risk/reward, like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. But this isn't about profit. It's about escape.

The market's 99.7% "Yes" odds? Built on a house of cards. Our deep dive reveals the "Operation Epic Fury" narrative driving it is a *2026 military simulation*. A wargame, not reality.

This whale isn't chasing $226. They're shedding $75,174 of exposure to a ticking time bomb of misinformation. While other "smart money" still clutches unrealized gains, this player is *realizing* gains and *exiting*. That's not a trade; it's a prison break. Flawless capital preservation, dodging a future market meltdown. A masterclass in not being the bag holder.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$125,716,958.401

24h Volume

$46,072,035.705

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the listed date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding accidental entry, intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, or diplomatic personnel.

Timeline

The market considers events occurring at any point up to the specified deadline date, which is understood in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting, meaning a general agreement among reliable news sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly believe that military contractors, intelligence operatives, or personnel entering for diplomatic reasons qualify, or that entry into maritime/aerial territory or accidental entry counts.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, US Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 35

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran"? The market's a dizzying 64% "Yes," volume at $783K. Whales are piling into tales of downed F-15s, "Operation Epic Fury," and Special Forces heroics. Sounds like World War III, right?

Wrong. This isn't breaking news; it's a future forecast from 2026. Yes, 2026. Trump's the active wartime commander, leading "10,000 combat flights in 37 days" in this alleged scenario.

The market is buying a military wargame as present reality. It's not a Black Swan; it's a Pied Piper leading you off the cliff. Don't be the chump paying today for tomorrow's fan-fiction. Verify the temporal anomaly. Short the "Yes" position. This 64% is a mirage.

KOL — High Relevance (8)

KOL@WarGuy_verified10,839 flwQ:5/5analysisbullish

US troops destroyed their own aircraft and blew roads on Iranian soil to delay Iranian forces during a successful pilot extraction, indicating Iran's military couldn't stop a small US special ops team.

🚨 US troops destroyed their own aircraft on Iranian soil and blew roads to delay Iranian forces — then got the pilot out anyway. That tells you Iran's military couldn't stop a small US special ops team operating inside their own country. That's a capability gap that changes how every adversary in the region reads this conflict.

210,904 views204 rt1,844 likesER:0.5465RR:19.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ProudSocialistverified436,099 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A major clash is underway between Iran and US invading forces in Southwestern Iran related to US rescue operations for an F-15 American pilot.

Breaking News: A major clash is underway between Iran and US invading forces in Southwestern Iran related to US “rescue” operations for the F-15 American pilot. It appears Iran was able to hit and strike down another US black hawk helicopter. https://t.co/x2fDa7r8re

139,862 views1,233 rt5,349 likesER:0.0688RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@criticalthreatsverified110,698 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

US forces successfully established a makeshift airstrip near a major Iranian city, extracted all personnel during a rescue operation, and the combined force continued operations.

US forces successfully established a makeshift airstrip very close to a major Iranian city, successfully extracted all of its personnel during the rescue operation, and the combined force has continued to strike targets in Iran.

466 views3 rt8 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PolyScopeRadarverified0 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

The Polymarket 'US forces enter Iran by April 30?' market has $783K traded and a 64% probability.

📊 Hourly Digest 10:00–11:00 UTC #Polymarket $1.2M · 2,283 trades · 1,744 traders 🥇 US forces enter Iran by April 30? — $783K (64%) https://t.co/0GF8nRRDkN 🥈 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — $32K (3%) https://t.co/FqIxpaPjWR 🥉 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential … — $27K (2%) https://t.co/AdE31AcOH1 🆕 New Whale Wallets (1 · $499K total) • 0x095d…52cf $499K (2 markets) ...

20 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,532,452 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

There is no verified evidence of the US targeting uranium in Isfahan; a US special forces operation involved rescuing a downed F-15E pilot's crew after clashes in southwestern Iran.

@ArabsAbubakar @jacksonhinklle No, there's no verified evidence the US went after uranium in Isfahan. The operation was a US special forces rescue of a downed F-15E pilot's crew after clashes in southern Iran. Iran claims it was a cover for stealing enriched uranium from the nearby nuclear site, citing ambiguities in the mission. US accounts describe it as a high-risk extraction that succeeded des...

64 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Mylovanovverified179,575 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

The CIA launched a deception campaign inside Iran, spreading word that US forces had a colonel and were moving him out by ground.

The CIA launched a deception campaign — spreading word inside Iran that US forces already had the colonel and were moving him out by ground. 4/

1,196 views2 rt44 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SimorghRoadmap1 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

US forces can destroy the Iran regime and kill criminals without ruining Iran.

@SamanthaTaghoy @realDonaldTrump @SecRubio Dear President,with US forces, U can destroy Iran regime & kill the criminals without ruining Iran, can’t you? Please, I beg U not to ruin this beautiful old country. 🙏You want to be in history as GREAT winner not as Hannibal. Save us with grace. 🙏🙏

22 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:22.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SimorghRoadmap1 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

US forces can destroy the Iran regime and kill criminals without ruining Iran.

@LaraLeaTrump @realDonaldTrump @LaraLeaTrump Dear President,with US forces,U can destroy Iran regime & kill the criminals without ruining Iran, can’t you? Please, I beg U not to ruin my beautiful old country. 🙏U want to be in history as GREAT winner not as Hannibal. Save us with grace. 🙏🙏

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:12.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@CENTCOMverified1,541,802 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

U.S. forces are continuing to conduct strikes against military targets inside of Iran during Operation Epic Fury.

U.S. Navy fighter jets take off from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) during Operation Epic Fury. U.S. forces continue to conduct strikes against military targets inside of Iran. https://t.co/eqcyAoASv5

5,397 views67 rt273 likesER:0.0010RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GuntherEaglemanverified1,717,591 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

U.S. forces are continuing to conduct strikes against military targets inside of Iran during Operation Epic Fury, as stated by CENTCOM.

🚨 CENTCOM: "U.S. Navy fighter jets take off from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) during Operation Epic Fury. U.S. forces continue to conduct strikes against military targets inside of Iran." https://t.co/P93V34a3pD

459 views4 rt16 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RT_com3,482,686 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Anthony Aguilar, a retired US Lieutenant Colonel and Special Forces Officer, stated that the United States does not have air superiority in Iran.

'United States does NOT have air superiority' in Iran Anthony Aguilar, retired US Lieutenant Colonel and Special Forces Officer, to RT https://t.co/y7PADGm84L

41,469 views238 rt1,281 likesER:0.0017RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PressTV569,936 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's top military commander, Major General Ali Abdollahi, warned that Iran's armed forces will retaliate severely if the US and Israel attack Iran's infrastructure.

Iran’s top military commander, Major General Ali Abdollahi, warned that the country’s armed forces will open the gates of hell if the US and Israel attack Iran’s infrastructure Follow: https://t.co/mLGcUTSA3Q https://t.co/7j9ytPgrtQ

27,493 views262 rt1,361 likesER:0.0116RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AlArabiya_Eng875,557 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Russian satellites have provided detailed imagery surveys of military facilities and critical sites across the Middle East to help Iran strike US forces and other targets, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Russian satellites have made dozens of detailed imagery surveys of military facilities and critical sites across the Middle East to help Iran strike US forces and other targets, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment. https://t.co/O0CThpy5Sz

1,390 views2 rt2 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@iranin_arabic_verified65,083 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

A comprehensive look at US military losses suffered at the hands of Iran's armed forces is revealed.

🇺🇸 US Military Losses Revealed 🛑 A comprehensive look at the losses suffered by the US military at the hands of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. https://t.co/UU9FnsGJB6

890 views3 rt6 likesER:0.0010RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WW3_Monitorverified94,621 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Airstrikes are reported in southern, northwestern, and central Iran.

Airstrikes reported in southern, northwestern and central Iran 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️

2,340 views1 rt14 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@war_noirverified271,525 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iranian Armed Forces (IRGC) reportedly shot down a US MQ-9 'Reaper' MALE UCAV, possibly using a domestic 'Qaem-118' Short-Range Surface-To-Air missile.

#Iran / #USA / #Israel 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱: Iranian Armed Forces (#IRGC) reportedly shot down a US MQ-9 “Reaper” MALE UCAV. IRGC seemingly used a possible domestic “Qaem-118” (Ghaem-118) Short-Range Surface-To-Air Missile to target the UAV. https://t.co/ZN64KHLMYh

6,315 views13 rt105 likesER:0.0013RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@EnglishFars68,201 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran Armed Forces reportedly hit two Saudi-based US-owned petrochemical complexes in retaliatory attacks.

Iran Armed Forces Hit Two Saudi-Based US-Owned Petrochemical Complexes in Retaliatory Attacks https://t.co/SC3vJcpXUA https://t.co/8eI1wGzJII

269 views0 rt8 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,532,452 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

Iran uses proxies for asymmetric strikes to avoid direct conflict with the US, which possesses vastly superior military capabilities.

@jagdish_ro45 @BRICSinfo Iran hasn't launched a direct attack on the US because it relies on proxies (like Hezbollah, Houthis) for asymmetric strikes to avoid full-scale war. The US has vastly superior conventional forces, airpower, and naval presence in the region—any direct assault on American targets would likely invite overwhelming retaliation, risking regime collapse. Iran calculates these ri...

41 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (4)

RETAIL@Northernpundit1verified354 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

US Special Operators can operate effectively in Iran by disrupting infrastructure without direct power plant strikes.

@BretWeinstein Not to worry You can turn the lights out in Iran without hitting the power plant And that’s all that’s needed for the US Forces Special Operators to do their thing. DJT has been very careful with the civilian population of Iran. They are not asking him to stop his offensive, they know that this is their one chance to remove the demons that have presided over their country.

11 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@IRANinMumbai12,982 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

Iranian forces encircled enemy forces, leading the enemy to launch heavy strikes on its own downed aircraft, equipment, and personnel to avoid humiliation.

After Iranian forces completed the encirclement, the enemy, seeking to avoid humiliation, launched heavy strikes on its own downed #aircraft, equipment, and personnel. #Iran #US #War

1,134 views3 rt29 likesER:0.0069RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MCBNNEWSSverified171 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

#BREAKING Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran https://t.co/SIpdkhpbxC

147 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0058RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@giodgoy33 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The idea that Iranian HEU is easily accessible for US special forces to extract from Iran is questioned.

@ImperiumHindu Do you perhaps think that the Iranian HEU is neatly packaged just waiting for the US special forces to fly out of Iran? Don't argue over which account I quoted. Talk over the facts, the exercise did take place. And the special forces who did it has one of their roles as CSAR

24 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@CaliberEnglishverified6,768 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

US and Israeli air forces reportedly targeted a border post in Iran near the Iraqi frontier.

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷🇮🇶 US and Israeli air forces targeted a border post in Iran near the Iraqi frontier, Sabereen News reports. #Caliber #USA #Israel #Iran #Iraq #MiddleEast https://t.co/3mGleKUEa8

34 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FreedomNews419verified453 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

US and Israeli air forces carried out over 50 powerful airstrikes on Tehran and other Iranian cities, targeting petrochemical facilities.

Throughout the night and morning, the US and Israeli air forces carried out powerful strikes on Tehran and other cities in Iran, with more than 50 airstrikes, including the targeting of a petrochemical plant in Shiraz. https://t.co/SknD0J5iXh

33 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@researchUSAIverified1,195 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Russia is reportedly arming Iran with cyber strike capabilities and satellite intelligence for ambushes against US forces and Gulf allies.

🚨🇷🇺🇮🇷😡💥 BREAKING: Russia Arms Iran with Cyber Strikes Against US Forces and Gulf Allies Russia's deepening its unholy pact with Iran, slipping them satellite intel for ambushes on American troops and Gulf partners, and now layering on cyber ops to cripple our edge. Reuters drops this bomb: beyond eyes in the sky guiding missiles at US targets, Moscow's feeding Tehran the digital knives to ...

44 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@yasarullah721 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Trump claimed that Iran could be 'taken out in one night' and that the US war on Iran is going well.

Trump claims Iran can be ‘taken out in one night’ The US president has claimed the US’s war on Iran is going well and that US forces could “take out” the whole country in a single night. https://t.co/1y6p1SUPNQ

98 views1 rt0 likesER:0.0277RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RoyaNewsEnglishverified9,060 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Trump claimed that US armed forces have carried out over 10,000 combat flights over Iran in the past 37 days, and a US F-15 was downed last week in Iran.

“Over the past 37 days, America’s armed forces have carried out more than 10,000 combat flights over Iran – unheard of,” the Trump said. He added that the US F-15 that was downed last week in Iran “was the first manned aircraft downed by the enemy in this entire operation”. https://t.co/1nBsiBoVLf

202 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0023RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@WhwilsonJ1,021 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Iran is firing missiles at US forces and choking global trade, while the UK is criticized for caution.

The UK lectures us about rules while Iran fires missiles at our forces and chokes global trade. This isn't caution — it's cowardice dressed up as morality.

17 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FitFusionGiggleverified297 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

On April 3, 2026, Iranian forces allegedly shot down a US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle over southwestern Iran during an ongoing US-Iran war.

Quick facts on what occurred: On April 3, 2026, during the ongoing US-Iran war, Iranian forces shot down a US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle (from the 494th Fighter Squadron) over southwestern Iran, near the Dehdasht area in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province. The two-person crew ejected. One was rescued relatively quickly (within hours, in daylight). The second crew member (a weapons systems of...

30 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@bathville649 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The General Staff of US armed forces may be concerned about potential illegal acts of war on Iran ordered by Trump.

@ivan_8848 The General Staff of US armed forces must be concerned about orders from Trump to commit further illegal acts of war on Iran not to mention its Chief of Staff being sacked?

38 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@illingwort6795882 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Maintaining US forces in the region indefinitely is exhausting, and Iran only needs to threaten.

@yarbatman @PlastiqSoldier @ProfessorPape Will they? It's exhausting to re-assemble and maintain US forces in the region indefinitely. All Iran needs is to threaten.

19 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0122RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MultibaggAIHQ371 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

On April 6, 2026, US and Israeli strikes hit Tehran's Sharif University, a drone attacked US Victoria Base in Baghdad, and Trump set a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leading to Iranian retaliation.

6 APR 2026: US AND ISRAEL STRIKES HIT TEHRAN'S SHARIF UNIVERSITY, A DRONE ATTACK TARGETED US VICTORIA BASE IN BAGHDAD; TRUMP SETS DEADLINE TO REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IRAN VOWS RETALIATION — OIL MARKETS JOLT

92 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0025	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9975	800,779.93	+$290,615.85
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9975	620,990.26	+$234,613.22
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0025	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9975	130,947.76	+$50,324.14
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9975	175,760.61	+$47,866.21
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9975	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9975	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9975	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9975	0	+$35,796.86