Trade Report : 

Alexander Bublik Loses at Monte Carlo: $77,030 on Polymarket

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
Ieirigk733   (0xaaaf7f5294be3f594ce4a648b957d39c69296c31)
PolyMarket : Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik
$77,029.63
Trade Amount
SELL Alexander Bublik
Trade Side
0.999
Entry Price
Time

Ieirigk733 placed $77,029.63 SELL Alexander Bublik on Polymarket, betting on "Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $614,037.589, 24h volume $613,986.281, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Alexander Bublik at 0.999

Alexander Bublik odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance
Gael Monfils
0.5%
Alexander Bublik
99.5%
Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $77,029.63 becomes $77,106.63 (profit $77)
If wrong, loses $77,030

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $77,030 to *buy* Alexander Bublik at 99.9% odds, securing a measly $77 profit. Forget the "SELL" label; this isn't a prediction, it's financial housekeeping. Bublik already won 6-4, 6-4.

This isn't alpha generation; it's post-event arbitrage, like picking up a guaranteed penny off the sidewalk. This behemoth trade, 12.54% of total volume, pins the market.

Early whales, the true seers, bought Bublik at $0.60-$0.80 and made bank. Our hero? They’re just bridging the gap between real-world fact and blockchain settlement. It’s a 0.1% return, but annualized, that’s a juicy ~44% APY. Talk about boringly brilliant capital efficiency!

The only risk? Not a bad serve, but a smart contract implosion. Imagine losing $77,030 for $77 because the blockchain hiccuped. A good trade, sure. But remember: even a guaranteed $77 still feels like getting a participation trophy after winning the lottery.

Market Context: Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander BublikMarket Page →

Total Volume
$614,037.589
24h Volume
$613,986.281
Heat
Hot
End Date
2026-04-15
Created
2026-04-06
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to the player who advances in the tennis match. It resolves 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, is delayed more than 7 days, or results in a walkover.

Timeline

The match is scheduled for April 8 at 4:00 AM ET, and if it is delayed beyond 7 days from this date without a winner, the market resolves 50-50.

Source

The outcome will primarily be determined by official information from the ATP Tour, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.

Special Cases

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed more than 7 days, it resolves 50-50; similarly, a walkover also results in a 50-50 resolution. If a match begins but one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, that player is considered the winner.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be that a walkover or a match ending due to retirement would lead to a player winning, but a walkover resolves 50-50, while a retirement means the advancing player wins.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Monfils Bublik, Monte Carlo Masters

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Monfils’ Monte-Carlo swan song? More like a dirge, courtesy of Bublik, 6-4, 6-4. The sentimental retail crowd wept, backing their 39-year-old hero. But smart money, like @almadecolon, knew Monfils was pushing Sisyphus' boulder after a grueling 3-setter. Fatigue isn't a narrative; it's a physical reality.

Bublik, the historical clay hater, suddenly has the Midas touch on dirt. @josemorgado crowned him a "specialist." His drop shots were surgical, exploiting Monfils' limits. Ignore the noise: @RomainNextGen's phantom Monfils win was pure fantasy.

**Investment:** Your Bublik shares are now gold. For future clay markets, re-rate Bublik immediately; his evolution is unpriced. Fade the tear-jerking sentiment. Follow the tactical brilliance. The "whales" saw Bublik's transformation; did you?

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@TennisTVverified751,020 flwQ:5/5newsbullish
Alexander Bublik defeated Gaël Monfils with a score of 6-4, 6-4 in Monfils' final Monte-Carlo match.
Two magicians, one winner 🪄 Bublik defeats Monfils 6-4 6-4 in the Frenchman’s final Monte-Carlo match #RolexMonteCarloMasters https://t.co/VliFAGxskP
68 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@francetvsport296,289 flwQ:5/5newsbullish
Gaël Monfils was eliminated by Alexander Bublik and made his farewell from Monte-Carlo at 39 years old.
🎾 #RolexMonteCarloMasters | 👋 Gaël Monfils fait ses adieux à Monte-Carlo ! 🥺 Il n'y a pas eu de miracle pour le Français face à Alexander Bublik : à 39 ans, il vient de disputer le tout dernier match de sa carrière dans le tournoi monégasque. https://t.co/YlcVIHW4bF
370 views1 rt6 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@Eurosport_FRverified1,496,029 flwQ:5/5newsbullish
Gaël Monfils was eliminated by Alexander Bublik and bid farewell to the Monte-Carlo tournament.
Cette fois, ça y est : Gaël Monfils, éliminé par Alexander Bublik, fait ses adieux au tournoi de Monte-Carlo sous les applaudissements du public et de son adversaire 🥺 https://t.co/9S2lKtKROQ
296 views1 rt5 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@TennisTVverified751,020 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
No.8 seed Bublik will play 2016 finalist Monfils for a spot in the third round.
This is going to be FUN 🤩 No.8 seed Bublik takes on 2016 finalist Monfils for a spot in the third round! #RolexMonteCarloMasters https://t.co/GpjChCpHig
7,335 views5 rt61 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@atptourverified1,851,711 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish
Bublik made an impressive shot early in the match against Monfils.
"HOW has he made that?" 😅 Bublik with the early magic against Monfils @ROLEXMCMASTERS | #RolexMonteCarloMasters https://t.co/5w2BvzyvUL
7,687 views2 rt34 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@francetvsport296,289 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
The second-round match between Monfils and Bublik will be broadcast live tomorrow afternoon.
🎾 #RolexMonteCarloMasters | 📺 Rendez-vous demain dans l'après-midi pour le deuxième tour avec le match Monfils 🆚 Bublik en direct sur la chaîne sport de https://t.co/LcvzhE4Q6I ! 📱 Venez interagir avec nous et poser vos questions sur le live chat ! https://t.co/pehhjLWGRC
4,497 views3 rt40 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@almadecolon36 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish
Bublik is favored with a -1.5 game handicap due to his good exhibition play and Monfils' previous win being attributed to his opponent's poor performance.
MONFILS - BUBLIK Hand. -1,5 juegos Bublik @1.55 (2/10) Bublik en la exhibición que hizo el otro día jugó muy bien, y Monfils ayer gana porque Griekspoor se va del partido.
195 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:5.4Source: X/Twitter
KOL@segundosaque0435 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Gaël Monfils lost to Alexander Bublik with a double 6-4 score, marking his farewell from Monte-Carlo.
😔🇫🇷 GAEL MONFILS SE DESPIDE DE MONTE-CARLO 💔 El francés cayó ante 🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik por un doble 6-4 y dice adiós a uno de los torneos más lindos del circuito. @ROLEXMCMASTERS #ATP https://t.co/wQt6YOC6ue
22 views1 rt1 likesER:0.6000RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter
KOL@PuntoDBreakverified60,973 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Alexander Bublik ended Gaël Monfils' participation in Monte Carlo.
🇰🇿Bublik pone fin a la andadura de Monfils en Montecarlo https://t.co/td2xvrK9Jf
54 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@JeuBlancfr55 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
Monfils is predicted to beat Bublik.
@CoumTil Connaissant bien le tennis je peux déjà te dire que Monfils va battre bublik et Norrie va battre de minaur RDV demain
526 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0364RR:9.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (5)

KOL@josemorgadoverified261,095 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
Bublik is now considered a clay court specialist.
Bublik is now a clay court specialist.
1,230 views1 rt10 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@SchedulesTennis13,743 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The order of play for Tuesday, April 07, 2026, at the Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 is available.
Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 Order of play - Tuesday, April 07, 2026 https://t.co/5JqwMBxHbi
175,478 views54 rt246 likesER:0.0965RR:12.8Source: X/Twitter
KOL@UniversTennisverified91,929 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Frances Tiafoe has withdrawn from the Monte-Carlo Masters and will be replaced by a lucky loser.
🔴 Pas de PARTIE 3 entre Frances Tiafoe et Terence Atmane. ❌ Après sa demi-finale à Houston, l’Américain déclare FORFAIT pour le Masters 1000 de Monte-Carlo. Il sera remplacé par un lucky loser. https://t.co/cdVzTgBvvj
33,373 views17 rt625 likesER:0.0105RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
KOL@jodarismo17 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
Predictions are provided for several Monte Carlo matches, but not for Monfils vs Bublik.
✏️Predicciones Montecarlo✏️ (EN MAYÚSCULA EL GANADOR) Darderi - HURKACZ DE MINAUR - Norrie Quinn - ATMANE ALCARAZ - Báez Shevchenko - CILIC ETCHEVERRY -Dimitrov SINNER - Humbert MENSIK - Marozsan Moutet - MULLER Berrettini - BAUTISTA RUUD - Popyrin Bublik - MONFILS
883 views0 rt3 likesER:0.1765RR:51.9Source: X/Twitter
KOL@tiebreakbet6 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
Predictions are provided for several Monte Carlo matches, but not for Monfils vs Bublik.
PREDICCIONES ATP MONTECARLO Darderi gana a Hurkacz Berrettini gana a Bautista Etcheverry gana a Dimitrov Mensik gana a Marozsan Atmane gana a Quinn Sinner gana a Humbert Cilic gana a Shevchenko Ruud gana a Popyrin Alcaraz gana a Báez Moutet a Muller ADM a Norrie Bublik a Monfils
943 views0 rt1 likesER:0.1667RR:157.2Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@ATP_Entry4,368 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Bublik defeated Monfils with a score of 6-4, 6-4.
Bublik 🇰🇿 64 64 Monfils 🇫🇷 (A. Nour 🇪🇬) #RolexMonteCarloMasters https://t.co/tP8g768K3I
26 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TFrenchMSport17 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Gaël Monfils (nº203) lost to Alexander Bublik (nº11) 6-4, 6-4 in his last Monte Carlo appearance.
🎾Master 1000 Monte Carlo🎾 Défaite de Gael Monfils 🇫🇷(nº203) pour son dernier Monte Carlo au deuxième tour contre Bublik 🇰🇿(nº11) 6/4 6/4 🔜1/8eme Lehecka 🇨🇿(nº13) ou Tabilo 🇨🇱 (nº39) #RolexMonteCarloMasters https://t.co/FeLqHu8ktw
48 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:2.8Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TouchOClassShow12 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Alexander Bublik defeated Gael Monfils 6-4, 6-4 in what was likely Monfils' final Monte Carlo Masters appearance.
Alexander (Sasha) Bublik 🇰🇿 takes down Gael Monfils 🇫🇷 6-4, 6-4. Monfils in what is most likely his last Monte Carlo Masters 1000 was serenaded with applause in his final game on court 👏
40 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:3.3Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@DervissoglouHug720 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Gaël Monfils lost to Alexander Bublik 6-4, 6-4 at Monte-Carlo.
Terminé pour Gaël Monfils à Monte-Carlo. Le Français s'incline 6/4 6/4 contre Alexander Bublik. Juste avant Corentin Moutet a battu son compatriote Alexandre Müller et jouera Casper Ruud.
47 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@ma__linharessverified19,350 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Gael Monfils was defeated by Alexander Bublik in the second round of Monte Carlo, marking his farewell from the tournament.
Gael Monfils se despede de Monte Carlo! Francês foi superado por Alexander Bublik na segunda rodada do torneio em que foi finalista em 2016! Esta foi apenas a segunda vitória do cazaque no evento. #TenisNaESPN
127 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@pierregorce12988 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Monfils' run in Monaco ended with Bublik breaking serve at 5-4 in both sets.
Monfils à Monaco, c'est terminé 💔 Scénario identique sur les deux sets avec un break de Bublik à 5-4. C'était les derniers moments du Français sur le Rainier III #RolexMonteCarloMasters
46 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TennisUpdates2615,720 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Alexander Bublik won 6-4, 6-4 against Gael Monfils.
Alexander Bublik wins 6-4, 6-4 vs Gael Monfils Entertaining match but the expected result, was a good moment for Gael to get one last win in Monte Carlo on Sunday.
239 views3 rt7 likesER:0.0043RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@morinmartine9608 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Alexander Bublik defeated Gaël Monfils, leading to Monfils' exit from the tournament.
ATP Monte-Carlo 2026 | Gaël Monfils dit adieu au tournoi après avoir été butta par Alexander Bublik - Eurosport https://t.co/YUMbMAEWJV
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@FullSportivo241 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Alexander Bublik defeated Gaël Monfils 6-4, 6-4 and advanced to the Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinals, marking Monfils' final participation in the tournament.
Alexander Bublik venció a Gaël Monfils por 6-4 y 6-4 y avanzó a los octavos de final del #MonteCarloMasters. 👋 Para Monfils fue su última participación en Monte Carlo, 21 años después de su debut y tras haber sido finalista en 2016. https://t.co/DnMynu2pRG
2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@ScoreInsightverified11 flwQ:3/5analysisbullish
Monfils lost due to too many long points and a poor first serve, while Bublik effectively used drop shots.
Monfils nous quitte sur cette note en demi teinte. Aujourd'hui il a laissé trop de point en longueur, une première qui ne passe pas et Bublik s'est bien amusé sur ses amorties. 👀 Pas de regrets sur les bets, on est a -0.45% sur la BK avec un 2/4 aujourd'hui. 🎾 Merci Monfils
23 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:2.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (7)

RETAIL@DrawsTennis15,820 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Information regarding the placement of qualifiers in the Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 draw is available.
Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 - Qualifiers placed https://t.co/Qy5hLaM42M
37,772 views24 rt151 likesER:0.0399RR:2.4Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AvantageTennis_verified6,524 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Gaël Monfils defeated Tallon Griekspoor in three sets to qualify for the second round of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
MONFILS S’OFFRE UN 2e TOUR SUR LE ROCHER 🪨 10 ans après sa finale, Gaël Monfils domine Tallon Griekspoor en 3 manches et se qualifie pour le second tour du Masters 1000 de Monte-Carlo. 🇫🇷🫡 Le Français affrontera Alexander Bublik mardi pour une place en 1/8e. 🔜 https://t.co/6sOaKP5LS5
1,508 views6 rt78 likesER:0.0303RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@tennistempleverified13,447 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Gaël Monfils defeated Tallon Griekspoor in three sets in his last Monte-Carlo appearance.
Pour sa dernière à Monte-Carlo, Gaël Monfils a fait vibrer le public avec un succès en trois sets face à Tallon Griekspoor. #ATPMasters1000 #Bublik #Griekspoor #Monfils #MonteCarlo 🎾 https://t.co/pj6WKzfyJd https://t.co/rcJQi6tGla
369 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@SchedulesTennis13,743 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The order of play for Monday, April 06, 2026, at the Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 is available.
Monte-Carlo ATP Masters 1000 Order of play - Monday, April 06, 2026 https://t.co/tRjdwnAEup
44,789 views26 rt182 likesER:0.0511RR:3.3Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@mtickets_168 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
Tickets are available for the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters on April 8th and 9th.
*PLACE DISPO Rolex Monte Carlo MASTERS* *Mercredi 8 avril RAINIER* SOLO CAT 1 Accès J4 *Mercredi 8 avril RAINIER* SOLO CAT 2 Accès F1 *Jeudi 9 avril RAINIER 1/8e Finales* SOLO CAT 2 Accès F1 *Jeudi 9 avril RAINIER 1/8e Finales* SOLO CAT 3 Accès D1 Suite sous le post ⬇️
52 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@10dule1026 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
The matches on Court Rainier III finished before 5 PM today.
So you're telling me we are already done on Court Rainier III for today? Before 5 PM? 🎾🤨 Where is everyone rushing to? Do they have a group dinner reservation at 6:00 PM or what? 🍽️🏃‍♂️ #Sinner #Alcaraz #Monfils #Bublik #ATP #MonteCarlo #RolexMonteCarlo
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@ItzzZain106,609 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
Jannik Sinner is predicted to win the Monte Carlo tournament.
🇲🇨 Montecarlo: Jannik Sinner 🇪🇸 Madrid: Corentin Moutet 🇮🇹 Roma: Lorenzo Musetti 🇫🇷 Roland Garros: Holger Rune
16,847 views1 rt70 likesER:0.0136RR:2.5Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Alexander Bublik positions. Largest position: 52,682.2 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xaaaf7f5294be3f594ce4a648b957d39c69296c31Alexander Bublik0.67540.99500.01+$24,947.42
20x5d58e38cd0a7e6f5fa67b7f9c2f70dd70df09a15Alexander Bublik0.65420.99500+$18,950.64
30x6aee3fc6a36a4bb0aa93de5f71b7e8c15b64fad4Alexander Bublik0.75360.995052,682.2+$12,714.43
40x246be8a4e3805e318801b79ad1ee1268d5fbfb5bAlexander Bublik0.82110.995031,173.48+$5,419.79
50xc452bc4c4ffb4e17a141ac9d49b79d87dedf7234Alexander Bublik0.68550.995010,111.39+$3,128.92
60xe3d4dee2427b98042822543f8e1e8ab7bafb2bacAlexander Bublik0.61990.99506,175.29+$2,315.73
70x769056fb242c80b64ac3b74a8161a70468fd74e1Alexander Bublik0.85510.99500+$1,653.58
80x9f138019d5481fdc5c59b93b0ae4b9b817cce0fdAlexander Bublik0.63000.99504,388.57+$1,601.83
90x88d17ad6bf91ca0935f6e70b37ebe3db92b618daAlexander Bublik0.83990.995010,027.55+$1,554.84
100xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906bAlexander Bublik0.84000.99509,999.99+$1,550
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