Trade Report : 

New York Mets Won't Win: $511,697 Prediction on Polymarket

This analysis was generated on 2026-04-14, data may be outdated
0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1
PolyMarket : New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
$511,696.72
Trade Amount
BUY Los Angeles Dodgers
Trade Side
0.89
Entry Price
Time

0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1 placed $511,696.72 BUY Los Angeles Dodgers on Polymarket, betting on "New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers" at odds 0.89 (market gives 89.0% probability). Total market volume $1,984,909.298, 24h volume $1,980,883.961, heat level: Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.89

Los Angeles Dodgers odds at 0.89, market gives 89.0% chance
New York Mets
19.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers
80.5%
Risk/reward ratio 0.1:1
If correct, $511,696.72 becomes $574,939.72 (profit $63,243)
If wrong, loses $511,697

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $511,697 on the Dodgers at a whopping 89.0% probability, chasing a 4-0 lead in the 3rd inning. For a potential profit of $63,243, they're risking $511,697. That's a 0.12:1 risk/reward, folks.

The market immediately corrected to 80.5%. This whale, accounting for over 25% of volume, bought the top like a tourist in Times Square. Other whales are already in profit with vastly superior entry prices. Meanwhile, the Mets whale, holding 1,715,371.68 shares, is up $54,966.

This isn't a bet; it's a donation. The deadline is TBD, with 0 days remaining. And the kicker? A game cancellation resolves 50-50, turning this 89.0% 'sure thing' into a $511,697 crater. Some people never learn.

Market Context: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles DodgersMarket Page →

Total Volume
$1,984,909.298
24h Volume
$1,980,883.961
Heat
Hot
End Date
TBD (To Be Determined)
Created
2026-04-07
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to "New York Mets" if they win the game, and to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Dodgers win. If the game is canceled entirely without a make-up or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.

Timeline

The game is scheduled for April 13, 2026, and the market will resolve after its completion. If official statistics are not published within 24 hours after the game's conclusion, other credible reports may be used.

Source

The primary source for resolution is the official final statistics from the governing body or event organizers. If official stats are unavailable after 24 hours, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Special Cases

If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be assuming the market resolves immediately on the scheduled date, even if the game is postponed. Another could be overlooking the 50-50 resolution for cancellations or ties.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Mets, Dodgers

Relevant tweets: 31

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The Mets are performing a live re-enactment of the Titanic, currently down 4-0 to the Dodgers at the end of the 3rd. Andy Pages launched a 3-run homer, while the Mets offense is 10 up, 10 down – a perfect game for the *other* team. Peterson is an "auto loss" button, and the Mets just fell out of the Top 10.

The only *real* drama? Shohei Ohtani took a pitch to the shoulder blade. Is it a bruise or a future pitching start on the 16th in jeopardy? That's your unpriced risk.

**Investment Implication:** Fade the Mets like last year's meme stocks. Short their props, hammer the Dodgers run line. For futures, the Mets are sellers. Monitor Ohtani's shoulder like a hawk; *that's* your window to short Dodgers futures if the market hasn't caught up.

KOL — High Relevance (3)

KOL@DodgersNationverified320,980 flwQ:4/5newsbearish
At the end of the 3rd inning, the Dodgers lead the Mets 4-0, with Andy Pages hitting a three-run homer.
End of the bottom of the 3rd. The Dodgers lead the Mets 4-0. Andy Pages hits a three-run homer to left field, bringing in Kyle Tucker and Freddie Freeman. https://t.co/c48l5e6KNJ
150 views0 rt4 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@SNYtv240,470 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Edwin Díaz reunited with former Mets teammates Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, and Luis Torrens in Los Angeles.
Edwin Díaz reunites with former Mets teammates Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens in Los Angeles https://t.co/eLYfvKOLV8
76,143 views46 rt876 likesER:0.0075RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
KOL@reidsgarcia_3,405 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
having to watch the mets at 10pm tonight https://t.co/DuPNZGwIFP
4,361 views21 rt199 likesER:0.1818RR:1.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (5)

KOL@Andy21441657 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish
Criticizes Mets' management (Stearns) for not retaining Soto and instead signing Frankie Montas for $20 million a year, who is currently not on an MLB team.
Could’ve ran it back with Soto but Stearns thought he was the smartest guy in the room giving Frankie Montas, who’s not even on an MLB team, 20 million a year/2.
40,354 views13 rt257 likesER:0.7869RR:61.4Source: X/Twitter
KOL@BenVerlanderverified208,193 flwQ:4/5newsbearish
The Mets have fallen out of the Top 10 in rankings this week.
Braves and Padres skyrocket Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Astros all fall out of the Top 10 this week
16,619 views5 rt153 likesER:0.0012RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@DKSportsbookverified379,186 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral
The top 5 highest-paid players for the Dodgers and Mets combined have a payroll of $364M, which is $86M more than the combined payrolls of the Rays, Guardians, and Marlins.
The Dodgers + Mets top 5 highest-paid players = $364M. That’s $86M MORE than the entire payrolls of the Rays, Guardians, and Marlins… combined. (via Spotrac) https://t.co/QPCRTbsp1D
10,405 views0 rt8 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@DodgersNationverified320,980 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The Dodgers' recruitment pitch to Edwin Diaz this offseason included the promise, 'We will make you a Hall of Famer.'
Part of the Dodgers message to Edwin Diaz during their recruitment pitch this offseason: “We will make you a Hall of Famer.” Via @katiejwoo (🔗 https://t.co/3IN0beyGpI) https://t.co/42bAfW9Sa0
30,827 views35 rt455 likesER:0.0036RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@metsdweeb296 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
Reminds that the Mets team had a poor start to the season with a lot of drama.
People forget this team started out like ass and had a ton of drama to start
14,262 views8 rt406 likesER:1.9122RR:48.2Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@RPT_SMILEverified14,571 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Shohei Ohtani was hit by a pitch in his first at-bat, raising concerns about potential injury to his right shoulder blade area and its impact on his pitching on the 16th.
大谷翔平選手、第1打席に死球を受けましたが、大丈夫かな? 大谷さんの右の肩甲骨辺りに当たってますよね? 肩甲骨や周囲の組織に問題が出れば、当然投球はできません 16日の登板に影響がなければ良いですが… https://t.co/1k0hsApHgk
863 views1 rt6 likesER:0.0018RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Berliner4Marc1,858 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
States the current score is 4-0, Peterson is performing poorly, and the Mets have not gotten a hit with 10 batters up and 10 down.
@albanian_angry @Mets How you feel now...Peterson blows At 4-0 I have zero confidence the Mets do anything...they haven't even got a hit...10 up 10 down #Lgm 😂
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@samwilbur1,059 flwQ:3/5newsbearish
The Mets offense has had 9 batters up and 9 batters down, indicating no hits or baserunners.
9 up, 9 down for the offense too. #Mets
28 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@forrestbrown_834 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
Expresses doubt about the Mets' ability to get four hits/runs or Lindor making contact with a runner in scoring position.
Do the Mets get four hits let alone four runs tonight? Does Lindor make contact with a runner in scoring position tonight? Which man is with his wife tonight? #QuestionsNeedAnswers
13 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@mattr0516113 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
States that the Dodgers are blowing out the Mets, exceeding even the author's low expectations, and questions manager Mendoza's job security.
I knew the Dodgers would blow the Mets out of the water, but man, this might be even more embarrassing then even I imagined. Tell me how Mendoza still has a job?
15 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@_ArtistControl_7 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
@Mets Yo niggas suck lol
3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@d3jablk640 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
turning off the mets it’s already 11pm.
1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@CoastalCowboy348 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
@Mets Absolute fucking retards
7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@notafedfomoverified109 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
@SwaeLea This guy cursed Mets ML and Ohtani HR, the Trent of Gematria
1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@spiderlou20993,246 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
Motherfuckin Gary jinxed it by saying Peterson hasn’t given up a HR. Sometimes I really fucking hate Gary!!! 😡 @SNYtv #Mets #NYMvsLAD
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (9)

RETAIL@bcb169182 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
States that pitcher Peterson is an 'auto loss' and has only had one good year out of seven.
@MetsAvenue Peterson is an auto loss every time. Not sure why people and Mets management expect anything else. 1 good year out of 7
11 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@bbmetsfan427 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
Expresses the opinion that the Mets will be sellers at the trade deadline.
Mets actually gonna be sellers at the deadline. But who can they sell? Yes I’ve given up.
3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Morty_dee18 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
Predicts the Mets team will be sub .500 for the entire season.
@Mets @PCRichardandSon @martinonyc Cohen, Mendoza, and Stearns are all rat scum. This team is gonna be sub .500 all season. Cohen, you are a JOKE of an owner
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@brassballsRE390 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
Criticizes Mets manager Mendoza and owner Cohen, implying a lack of concern or courage regarding the team's performance.
Mets circus ringmaster Mendoza not worried yet? Mets billionaire owner Cohen has no COJONES
2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Morty_dee18 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
Predicts the Mets team will be sub .500 for the entire season.
@Mets Cohen, Mendoza, and Stearns are all rat scum. This team is gonna be sub .500 all season. Cohen, you are a JOKE of an owner
4 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@ultramet1,299 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
Maybe we dodged a bullet.
148 views0 rt4 likesER:0.0031RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@WardyNYMverified19,942 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
Time for my schedule to be absolutely cooked for the next week thanks to this West Coast trip Gotta stay up till 4AM the next 3 days while getting up with the little one a couple hours later Please be somewhat competent, Mets https://t.co/92KcZ14baB
1,853 views2 rt35 likesER:0.0038RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@i_ai_r185 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
She reminds me a lot of the New York Mets
1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AviaanFGC1,433 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish
Mets season is genuinely over lmfao
8 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Los Angeles Dodgers positions. Largest position: 1,715,371.68 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10x5d58e38cd0a7e6f5fa67b7f9c2f70dd70df09a15New York Mets0.16290.19501,715,371.68+$54,965.65
20xee00ba338c59557141789b127927a55f5cc5cea1Los Angeles Dodgers0.66200.8050265,555+$37,972.24
30x5d58e38cd0a7e6f5fa67b7f9c2f70dd70df09a15Los Angeles Dodgers0.59190.80500.04+$25,104.91
40xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319Los Angeles Dodgers0.69820.8050166,389.89+$17,324.42
50x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1New York Mets0.10300.195053,623.11+$14,853.63
60xcd3638fea0107fe3355544251f96a10980daa8acLos Angeles Dodgers0.59000.805049,981.07+$10,745.93
70xc660ae71765d0d9eaf5fa8328c1c959841d2bd28Los Angeles Dodgers0.58500.805048,700+$10,712.54
80xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debfLos Angeles Dodgers0.57550.805041,817.9+$9,437.49
90xe1a24206ed13433b70c603424c8a616b691d14b8Los Angeles Dodgers0.60000.805039,520+$8,101.6
100x507e52ef684ca2dd91f90a9d26d149dd3288beaeLos Angeles Dodgers0.57530.805023,818.81+$5,582.87
Mets Won't Beat Dodgers: $211,152 Bet on Polymarket
Dodgers Beat Mets? $117,251 Bet on Polymarket Says No Way