US x Iran Ceasefire Will Happen: $398K Prediction on Polymarket
bobe2 placed $398,000 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.995 (market gives 99.5% probability). Total market volume $88,127,035.456, 24h volume $51,664,981.575, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.995
If correct, $398,000 becomes $400,000 (profit $2,000)
If wrong, loses $398,000
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some absolute madman just dropped $398,000 on "Yes" for a US x Iran ceasefire, hoping to pocket a princely $2,000.
Sounds like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, doesn't it? But when the market’s at 99.5% ‘Yes’ with $51.6M volume in 24 hours, this isn't speculation.
It's an institutional whale doing glorified stablecoin yield farming.
They’re not the early birds who bought low and are now swimming in $462,433 PnL. No, this whale is cleaning up the scraps, betting on a geopolitical outcome that’s already practically resolved.
Risking $398,000 for $2,000? Insane to us plebs. But for idle capital, it's a near-guaranteed, short-term gain.
Unless, of course, a black swan missile strike or a rogue oracle wipes out their entire principal.
A boring, brilliant move. I'm not jealous, *you're* jealous.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other, with this agreement being publicly announced and mutually confirmed by the specified deadline. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this deadline based on whether the agreement was met.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the US and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also suffice.
The market will resolve "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire takes effect after the resolution date. Not specified in the rules for other special cases like market cancellation or dispute resolution.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
US x Iran ceasefire? Whales are betting *hard* against it. They're dumping, not dreaming. The smart money sees this as Groundhog Day, every day.
Twitter's sentiment for a swift resolution is bleak. Retail traders, bless their naive hearts, might still clutch at straws. But the big fish? They’re smelling blood, not olive branches.
This isn't a "buy the dip" moment for peace. It's a "short the hope" play. The market's telling you: this conflict isn't ending anytime soon. Don't be a lemming. If you're hoping for a ceasefire, the whales just showed you the exit.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 412,404.52 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9945 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9945 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9945 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9945 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.6271 | 0.9945 | 412,404.52 | +$193,198.02 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9945 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9945 | 155,118.78 | +$158,287.81 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9945 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9945 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9945 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |