US x Iran Ceasefire: $397,600 Says Yes, But Will It Hold?
BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate placed $397,600 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.994 (market gives 99.4% probability). Total market volume $71,655,178.677, 24h volume $51,099,804.722, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.994
If correct, $397,600 becomes $400,000 (profit $2,400)
If wrong, loses $397,600
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $397,600 on "US x Iran ceasefire by... Yes" for a pathetic $2,400 profit. At 99.4% odds, this isn't a bet, it's a high-stakes game of "How long until I lose it all?"
This whale is playing Jenga with their entire stack, hoping the oracle ignores the "mutually agreed" clause. Newsflash: The US and Iran *publicly disagree* on terms. Bombs are still dropping. This isn't a "halt."
The real smart money bought Yes at $0.02, not $0.99. You're not making a profit; you're *being* the profit, providing exit liquidity for the OGs laughing their way to 50x gains.
This isn't picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This is *lying down* in front of it. Get ready for a $397,600 lesson in oracle risk. Catastrophically bad trade.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to a mutual halt in direct military engagement by the specified date and time. It resolves "No" if no such official, mutually agreed ceasefire is publicly confirmed by the deadline, or if only informal understandings or unilateral pauses occur.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on when the agreement is reached, not when the ceasefire itself officially takes effect.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. An overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming the agreement can also serve as a sufficient source.
The rules specify that informal understandings, unilateral pauses, humanitarian pauses, or agreements without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. How to handle delays, cancellations, ties, or disputes beyond these specific exclusions is not explicitly detailed.
A common misunderstanding is that informal talks, unilateral pauses, or humanitarian breaks count as an official ceasefire. Another mistake is thinking the ceasefire must take effect by the deadline, when only the agreement needs to be reached.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 39
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
A "ceasefire" broke out, but the war clearly didn't get the memo. Barely hours after the announcement, Iran launched on Israel, Israel on Lebanon. Trump says Lebanon's a "separate skirmish"; Iran says it's *the* red line. They can't even agree on the "10-point plan" itself. This isn't a truce; it's a geopolitical "he said, she said" with live fire.
Energy infrastructure in Kuwait, UAE, Lavan? Still taking hits. Yet, markets are acting like it's V-Day, with aviation soaring and oil plunging. Whales are buying this "peace trade" like it's the Emperor's New Clothes. Don't be fooled. This two-week 'pause' is a structural trap. Go long crude. Bet 'No' on this charade. The only thing holding is the market's blind faith.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (2)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Retail — Medium Relevance (1)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 317,746.81 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.5181 | 0.9935 | 317,746.81 | +$192,737.18 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9935 | 155,118.78 | +$158,132.69 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9935 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9935 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |