99% Sure: US x Iran Ceasefire Will Happen, Per $305,906 Bet
HouseOfPol placed $305,905.76 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $90,084,423.711, 24h volume $49,869,394.149, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996
If correct, $305,905.76 becomes $307,133.76 (profit $1,228)
If wrong, loses $305,906
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just YOLO'd $305,906 on a US-Iran ceasefire, betting on a 99.6% 'Yes' to scrape up a measly $1,228. Talk about picking up pennies with a bulldozer.
This isn't trading; it's glorified stablecoin farming, if your stablecoin could explode. A 0.4% return? My grandma gets better interest on her savings bond.
While the OGs bought at $0.02, risking everything for six-figure gains, this whale is buying their exit liquidity at $0.9975. He's not a visionary; he's a very expensive receipt printer.
The real risk isn't World War III, but the oracle getting pedantic about "mutually agreed." Imagine losing $305,906 because someone forgot a semicolon.
If this resolves in hours, it's a slick 48% APY. If it drags? You're basically paying Polymarket to babysit your cash.
Average to Good trade, *if* the clock is ticking and the lawyers agree. Otherwise, enjoy your very expensive lesson in semantics.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and Iran reach an official, publicly announced, and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if such an agreement is not reached, or if only informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or temporary stand-downs occur.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves based on whether the agreement is reached by this specific time, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official public statements from both the United States and Iranian governments. Alternatively, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming the agreement will also suffice.
An agreement counts even if the ceasefire takes effect after the resolution date, as long as the agreement itself is reached by the deadline. Broader peace deals only qualify if they explicitly include a publicly announced, mutually agreed, and dated halt in military engagement.
A common misunderstanding is that informal talks, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian breaks count, but only a formal, mutually agreed, publicly announced halt in direct military engagement qualifies. Agreements for future negotiations without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting also do not qualify.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, Iran ceasefire, US ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US x Iran ceasefire by...?" The big money has spoken. Whales aren't just betting against it; they're actively shorting hope, with 85% of their capital screaming "NO."
This isn't just doubt. It's "Press X to Doubt" on a geopolitical scale. The smart money sees a Sisyphean task, not a diplomatic breakthrough.
Retail sentiment, bless its naive heart, is marginally less cynical. But even the small fry are mostly biting the bullet, with 60% also betting against a quick resolution.
Don't let your inner optimist get vaporized. When the titans of the market are this unified, betting against them is like bringing a water pistol to a drone strike. Follow the whales. Their sonar is rarely wrong on these deep, murky waters.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 412,404.52 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.6271 | 0.9975 | 412,404.52 | +$194,435.23 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9975 | 155,118.78 | +$158,753.17 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9975 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9975 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |