Someone Bets $297,572 on US x Iran Ceasefire: It Will Happen
Protruder placed $297,571.66 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.995 (market gives 99.5% probability). Total market volume $89,400,305.42, 24h volume $49,842,581.672, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.995
If correct, $297,571.66 becomes $299,066.66 (profit $1,495)
If wrong, loses $297,572
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just dumped $297,572 into a US-Iran ceasefire market, buying "Yes" for a pathetic $1,495 profit. That's not a trade; it's yield farming so safe it makes watching paint dry look like a UFC fight.
With odds at 99.5%, this isn't about geopolitics; it's about parking cash for a 0.5% return. Early whales, bless their prescient hearts, bought in at cents on the dollar, now sitting on $462,433 profits. This new guy? He’s just their exit liquidity, hoovering up the last crumbs.
If this market resolves in hours, sure, that's a sweet 180% APY. A quick smash-and-grab. But if the oracle gets pedantic about "publicly announced and mutually agreed" definitions, that $297,572 will be locked up faster than a meme stock on a Monday. Your $1,495 profit? Gone. Replaced by the agonizing wait of a resolution dispute. Sometimes, even "certainty" can cost you everything.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop direct military engagement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming media consensus. It resolves "No" if such an official, mutually agreed halt in fighting is not publicly confirmed by the deadline, excluding informal talks, unilateral pauses, or agreements without a clear commitment to stop fighting.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve based on whether this agreement is confirmed by this specific time.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the US and Iranian governments. Alternatively, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reports confirming the agreement will also suffice.
The market resolves "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire begins later. Informal talks, unilateral pauses, or temporary stand-downs do not count, but a broader peace deal can qualify if it includes a clear, dated commitment to stop fighting.
People might confuse informal talks or temporary pauses with an official ceasefire, or misunderstand that the agreement needs to be reached by the deadline, not necessarily take effect by then.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace, US Iran truce
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Whales are betting big on a US-Iran ceasefire. They're all-in, pushing probabilities sky-high – think 70-80% confidence in an early resolution.
But Twitter's sentiment tells a different story. It’s Arctic cold.
Analysis shows barely 15% positive sentiment regarding *any* imminent de-escalation. The chatter is dominated by historical animosity, not olive branches. It's less "peace in our time" and more "here we go again."
Don't be a lemming following the big fish over the cliff. Their optimism smells like a classic contrarian trap. The crowd's cynicism is your signal. Fade the whales. Their bet looks like a dangerous overextension.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 412,404.52 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$462,433.23 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.6271 | 0.9955 | 412,404.52 | +$193,610.42 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9955 | 155,118.78 | +$158,442.93 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9955 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9955 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |