US x Iran Ceasefire? $70,989 Polymarket Bet Says Yes
MineGuyBonds placed $70,988.9 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.992 (market gives 99.2% probability). Total market volume $39,557,723.749, 24h volume $22,954,530.36, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.992
If correct, $70,988.9 becomes $71,560.9 (profit $572)
If wrong, loses $70,989
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just dropped $70,989 on a US-Iran ceasefire, chasing a pathetic $572 profit like a dog after a squeaky toy. Risking $70,989 for 0.8%? That’s not trading, that’s buying a lottery ticket where the prize is lint. The market gives "Yes" 99.2%. Sir, are we talking about a ceasefire or the sun rising tomorrow? Geopolitics isn't that predictable.
The OGs bought low, banking $134k to $460k. This whale is buying their exit liquidity at $0.9925. Classic "buy high, sell low" energy. The "mutually agreed" clause? Iran's firing missiles while we're talking. This isn't "mutually agreed," it's "mutually confused." Every second this market isn't resolved, it's an asteroid heading for that $70,989. This isn't a trade; it's a donation. A $70,989 donation to the oracle gods. Bad trade.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the specified deadline, confirmed by both governments or an overwhelming consensus of media. It resolves "No" if such a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement is not reached by the deadline, or if only informal understandings or temporary pauses occur.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this deadline based on whether the condition was met.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments. However, an overwhelming consensus from credible news media confirming the agreement will also be sufficient.
If an official ceasefire agreement is reached before the deadline, the market resolves "Yes" even if the actual halt in fighting takes effect after the deadline. Other special cases like market cancellation or dispute resolution are not specified in these rules.
A common mistake is confusing informal talks, unilateral pauses, or temporary humanitarian ceasefires with an official, mutually agreed-upon halt in direct military engagement. Another misunderstanding could be thinking the ceasefire must take effect by the deadline, when only the agreement needs to be reached by then.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran peace, Iran US truce
Relevant tweets: 40
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The market just got punked. Trump's "immediate" 2-week ceasefire with Iran sent oil prices plummeting 15-20%, while crypto and stocks celebrated like it's 1999. But hold your horses. This isn't peace, it's a Schrödinger's ceasefire: simultaneously accepted by Iran's FM *and* rejected by BRICSinfo, who demands "permanent end." And "simultaneously" with Trump's announcement? Iran fired missiles at Israel. That's not a ceasefire, that's a *flex*.
Whales already gorged on the initial oil dump. Don't chase that trade. This 2-week window is a diplomatic Potemkin village. The real risk is unpriced: the deal's fragility. Iran’s demands for a permanent end, coupled with actual missile fire, make this a powder keg. If this "ceasefire" collapses – and the odds are higher than your uncle's bitcoin portfolio – oil rockets, risk assets crater. Hedge those gains. This isn't over; it's just intermission before the real fireworks.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (1)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9925 | 477,543.66 | +$460,761.82 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9925 | 355,555.18 | +$346,057.59 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9925 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9925 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9925 | 251,472.76 | +$192,254.92 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9925 | 200,000 | +$175,195.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9925 | 155,118.78 | +$157,977.57 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9925 | 174,764.3 | +$155,462.46 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9925 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9925 | 145,219.01 | +$134,278.25 |