Trade Report :

US-Iran Ceasefire: Bet $79,029 for $20,466 Profit — Worth It?

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

kjsdavv (0xef8310e2a2c1ea0be7c009216c5fce70ee8a96ec)

PolyMarket : US x Iran ceasefire by...?

$79,028.84

Trade Amount

SELL No

Trade Side

0.7943

Entry Price

2026-04-07 11:23:11 ET

Time

kjsdavv placed $79,028.84 SELL No on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.7943 (market gives 79.4% probability). Total market volume $17,658,749.003, 24h volume $1,937,847.64, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: No at 0.7943

No odds at 0.7943, market gives 79.4% chance

81.5%

Yes

18.5%

Risk/reward ratio 0.3:1
If correct, $79,028.84 becomes $99,494.84 (profit $20,466)
If wrong, loses $79,029

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

This whale just dropped $79,029, betting a US-Iran ceasefire is as likely as a polite debate on Twitter. Their "SELL No No" move is pure "No" conviction, locking in a 79.4% implied probability.

While eight of the top 10 whales are still clutching "Yes" tickets, they bought those dreams for $0.10, not today's $0.18. This isn't against smart money; it's fading *stale* money.

Iran rejected the truce, direct talks are ghosted, and US strikes hit Kharg Island. Geopolitical reality just served divorce papers. The resolution demands "direct military engagement" – a unicorn in this proxy-war era.

Time is the whale's ally. Every tick closer to expiry makes that $20,466 profit sweeter. This trader is playing long Theta, getting paid to watch the clock run out.

A shrewd bet, I'll admit. Risking $79,029 for $20,466 isn't for the faint of heart, but some like their returns like their coffee: strong and with a side of heart attack. Just pray no Black Swan suddenly makes peace break out.

Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →

Total Volume

$17,658,749.003

24h Volume

$1,937,847.64

Heat

Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-02-28

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the listed deadline. This agreement must be publicly announced and mutually agreed upon, not just an informal understanding or a temporary pause.

Timeline

The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this deadline based on whether the condition was met.

Source

The outcome will primarily be determined by official statements from the US and Iranian governments. However, a strong agreement among credible news reports confirming a ceasefire will also be sufficient.

Special Cases

The market will resolve "Yes" if the agreement is reached by the deadline, even if the actual ceasefire begins later. Informal agreements, temporary pauses, or broader deals without a clear commitment to stop fighting will not count.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US Iran, Iran ceasefire

Relevant tweets: 40

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Iran just gave the US ceasefire offer the cold shoulder, driving "NO" to a smug 83¢. The Doomsday Plane's in the air, Kharg Island just got dinged, and Trump wants uranium. Sounds like a textbook "NO," right?

But hold your horses, Admiral Ackbar. This isn't just "NO," it's "NO... to a temporary truce." Iran's still talking, just not *directly* with Washington. They want permanent peace, not a 45-day Band-Aid. Vance even says US objectives are met.

This isn't a total collapse; it's a negotiation power play. Whales betting on "NO" should have their stop-losses tighter than a drum. If mediators pivot to a "permanent" deal, that 16¢ "YES" share is going to pull a Wile E. Coyote on your portfolio. Don't get caught holding the bag.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@ZardSiverified42,659 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Reuters reports that the US and Iran have received a ceasefire plan mediated by Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim.

🚨🇵🇰 BIG BREAKING US and Iran receive a ceasefire plan mediated by Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim aimed at ending the war. - Reuters reports. https://t.co/GZad0kayNW

8,394 views98 rt605 likesER:0.0601RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,907,607 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Brent crude oil fell following reports that the US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could permanently end the war.

JUST IN: Brent crude oil falls after reports the US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could permanently end the war. https://t.co/fn5mkwwFKp

570,533 views598 rt5,053 likesER:0.0044RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Daily_MailUSverified509,886 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Trump's 'Doomsday Plane' was spotted circling a US nuclear war command center as Iran rejected a ceasefire.

BREAKING NEWS: Trump's 'Doomsday Plane' spotted circling US nuclear war command center as Iran rejects ceasefire

628,440 views382 rt3,528 likesER:0.0219RR:1.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@InsiderWire61,572 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

The Iranian regime has rejected a ceasefire in reply to the U.S.

#BREAKING: Iranian regime rejects ceasefire in reply to U.S.

13,299 views37 rt462 likesER:0.0195RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,650,598 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

Vice President JD Vance stated that the US has largely accomplished its military objectives in Iran and believes a response to a ceasefire proposal from Tehran is still possible.

Vice President JD Vance says the US has largely accomplished its military objectives in Iran and believes it is still possible to receive a response from Tehran to a ceasefire proposal by president Trump’s deadline tonight. 🔴LIVE updates: https://t.co/9YvbvxfUvc https://t.co/6hV2khJrTh

37,775 views48 rt152 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Yuto_Headlineverified133,967 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Reuters reports that Iran and the US have received a plan for an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with potential agreement today.

🚨イランと米が即時停戦案を受領、本日合意ならホルムズ海峡再開の可能性＝ロイター 🚨IRAN, US RECEIVE PLAN FOR IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE, HORMUZ REOPENING - RTRS

535,077 views626 rt2,095 likesER:0.1091RR:4.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@YourAnonTVverified531,085 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Trump's 'Doomsday Plane' was spotted circling a US nuclear war command center as Iran rejected a ceasefire.

🚨⚡️BREAKING: Trump's 'Doomsday Plane' spotted circling US nuclear war command center as Iran rejects ceasefire https://t.co/yOuzovPlN5

150,112 views344 rt1,884 likesER:0.0165RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@_WorldMonitor_verified1,816 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

A senior Iranian source states that Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US, viewing the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic asset to be fully leveraged.

NEW: 🇮🇷⚡️Senior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US. Iran says Strait of Hormuz is strategic asset, saying it should be fully leveraged. “We will resist for as long as necessary.”

131 views1 rt3 likesER:0.0127RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,517,835 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The US, Iran, and mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire, which US media sources suggest may be the only way to avoid dangerous escalation.

BREAKING: The US, Iran and mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. US media, citing sources, say it may be the only chance to avoid 'dangerous escalation.' https://t.co/4KC0ObgPsI

387,367 views577 rt1,856 likesER:0.0053RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@anadoluagencyverified280,562 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Israeli Premier Netanyahu urged Trump not to pursue a ceasefire with Iran, while Trump stated a deal could happen if Tehran hands over enriched uranium, according to Axios.

Israeli Premier Netanyahu urged US President Trump not to pursue a ceasefire with Iran during a call Sunday, according to Axios Monday Trump said a deal could happen if Tehran hands over enriched uranium and halts enrichment https://t.co/gCQK1Zbosh https://t.co/yWa8wU0xSX

1,670 views6 rt9 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (1)

KOL@grokverified8,530,374 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Trump is not bombing Iran, but posted on Truth Social about escalating US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.

@damixnr @Kalshi No, Trump isn't bombing Iran right now. This is from his Truth Social post today amid escalating US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz (key oil route Iran's been blockading). He's giving Iran until 8pm ET tonight to agree to a deal reopening it + ceasefire terms, or face massive strikes on regime infrastructure (bridges, oil hubs, power plants already hit in recent days)....

60 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@MWitchie8475 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire as Trump's deadline approaches.

🇺🇸 Trump deadline for Iran ticks closer as Islamic republic rejects temporary ceasefire. 8pm may be happening. Also, rescued US Airmen headed home to United States https://t.co/OS1UDamWvb

22 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@OGDocHollywood41 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran rejected a ceasefire, insisting on a permanent end to the conflict, amidst Trump's deadline and US strikes on Kharg Island.

US-Iran Deadline Crisis: - Trump's 8 PM ET deadline for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Iran rejected ceasefire, insisted on permanent conflict end - US forces struck Kharg Island oil export hub (infrastructure spared) - Iranian officials called citizens to form human chains

41 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ampaireRACHEAL4verified3,837 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran has officially withdrawn from ceasefire talks with the US.

@0hour1 Iran officially withdrawal from the ceasefire talks with US

29 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@SumengenSelcuk133 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran made 10 demands regarding the US ceasefire proposal, rejecting a temporary ceasefire and insisting on a permanent end to the war, which Trump deemed "not good enough."

"Iran makes 10 demands regarding the US ceasefire proposal; #Trump: Meaningful but not good enough" (Chinese, Sina News) "…emphasizing the need for a permanent end to the war based on #Iran's concerns; and making a series of demands, such as ending the…" https://t.co/mUtSS9HfqI

107 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0075RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MarianaBaabar38,594 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The WSJ reports that Iran has only cut off direct communications with the US, not its talks with ceasefire mediators, intending to send a signal of disapproval.

@WSJ says 🇮🇷 has only cut off its "direct" communications with the US not its talks with ceasefire mediators. "Iran intended to send a signal of disapproval and defiance by severing communications," one official was quoted as saying.

64 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MaqsoodAsi6,028 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Iran has cut off direct communications with the US following Trump's threat, but talks with ceasefire mediators are continuing.

#Iran Has Cut Off Direct Communications with #US over President Trump’s #THREAT to destroy Iran’s “whole civilization” though talks with #ceasefire mediators continue The move has temporarily complicated efforts to make a #DEAL by Trump’s 8 p.m DEADLINE https://t.co/QRdvNRTpJt

52 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@mostlysani24 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran has turned down ceasefire talks with the US via Pakistan.

#Iran has turned down talks of ceasefire with the #US via #Pakistan

53 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:2.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MarianaBaabar38,594 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian state media reports that Iran has rejected a 45-day ceasefire plan with the US and Israel, drafted by Egyptian, Pakistani, and Turkish mediators.

Iran has rejected a plan for a ceasefire with the US and Israel, Iranian state media reports. The deal drafted by Egyptian, Pakistani, and Turkish mediators called for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. #dwnews

148 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@The_PhiClub1,025 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

US military posture is escalating with numerous combat flights and targets struck, while Iran has rejected a ceasefire, indicating late-stage escalation.

US military posture is also escalating: • 10,000+ combat flights • 13,000 targets struck • B-2 bomber signals • Iran rejects ceasefire This is late-stage escalation behavior.

22 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@hiddenmind000129 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Ending the US-Israel-Iran confrontation requires more than power, suggesting a process involving ceasefire, direct negotiations, and a return to an agreement like the JCPOA.

It takes more than power to put an end to the US-Israel-Iran confrontation. Ceasefire → Direct negotiations → Return to an agreement similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action → Assurances of regional security → De-escalation by all parties.

28 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (1)

RETAIL@DavidNStocks1937 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran has restricted its direct diplomatic contact with the US following Trump's threat, as reported by American media and the Wall Street Journal.

Iran has moved to restrict its diplomatic contact with the US over Trump's threat today, according to American media reports Tehran has "cut off direct diplomacy" with Washington, the Wall Street Journal reports - though it adds talks continue with ceasefire mediators - Sky News

73 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 341,880.45 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	Yes	0.1345	0.1850	0	+$78,797.28
2	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	Yes	0.1393	0.1850	3,767.7	+$67,358.3
3	0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825	Yes	0.1253	0.1850	0	+$55,933.03
4	0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804	Yes	0.1082	0.1850	17,113.49	+$25,030.44
5	0x05ab749a8554fb7c852238c271d384bae6798145	Yes	0.1633	0.1850	3,425.44	+$21,691.52
6	0x35417b3d09d7a0991f75d7cc95162a6e34d7462e	Yes	0.1500	0.1850	0	+$19,735.6
7	0xfb5148fc7223630e0967dbfa8cd920d83ab4742d	No	0.8937	0.8149	8,617.18	+$12,545.82
8	0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010	Yes	0.1552	0.1850	341,880.45	+$10,182.91
9	0x71587aff3d063868a086574dcf9a86ab153a5439	No	0.7837	0.8149	138,093.42	+$10,144.49
10	0xd519189d472dd43bf780a6238900cc1dcdf950fb	Yes	0.1945	0.1850	291.52	+$9,593.61