99% Sure: US x Iran Ceasefire Won't Happen, Per $130,549 Bet
S7777 placed $130,548.94 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $42,191,271.264, 24h volume $25,468,349.417, heat level: Very Hot.
Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996
If correct, $130,548.94 becomes $131,072.94 (profit $524)
If wrong, loses $130,549
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Forget the headlines. A whale just dumped $130,549 in "Yes" shares on the US-Iran ceasefire market, sniffing out a resolution trap at 99.6%.
While retail piled in for a measly $524 potential profit, this genius saw the real risk. Risking $130,549 for pocket change? That's bringing a spoon to a nuclear war.
Iran's missiles aren't a "mutually agreed halt." The market priced a fairytale, but the resolution rules demand *reality*.
This whale wasn't chasing pennies. They secured their capital, exiting before the market's "Yes" illusion got body-slammed by a "No" reality. Textbook risk-off. My compliments, with a side of envy.
Market Context: US x Iran ceasefire by...?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves "Yes" if the United States and Iran officially agree to stop fighting each other by the specified deadline, confirmed by both governments or widespread media. It resolves "No" if such an agreement is not reached, or if only informal or temporary pauses occur.
The deadline for the official ceasefire agreement to be reached is the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve shortly after this date.
The outcome will be determined by official statements from the United States and Iranian governments, or by an overwhelming consensus of credible news reports.
Not specified in the rules.
People might misunderstand that informal talks, temporary pauses, or unilateral actions do not count as an official ceasefire. It is also easy to misinterpret that a broader peace deal must include a clear, dated commitment to stop fighting to qualify.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran ceasefire, US ceasefire, Iran ceasefire
Relevant tweets: 39
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Trump's "ceasefire" announcement? A geopolitical "hold my beer" moment.
Oil plunged 20% in 8 hours. Then, 2 hours later, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Faster than your average crypto rug pull.
Iran's "peace plan" demands total Hormuz control and uranium enrichment. Might as well ask for a unicorn stable on the White House lawn.
Even BRICSinfo posted "accepts" then "rejects" within hours. This isn't a ceasefire; it's a game of telephone with ballistic missiles.
Retail's buying the "Yes" rumor. Smart money? Fading this mirage.
Unless "ceasefire" now means "active bombardment by one side," the "No" bet is the only rational play. Don't be a mark for D.C. theatrics.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 477,543.66 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95 | Yes | 0.0276 | 0.9965 | 477,543.66 | +$462,672 |
| 2 | 0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c | Yes | 0.0192 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$347,302.04 |
| 3 | 0x68558d37cafd9e6612ab32863f55ccdd798f655a | Yes | 0.0385 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$200,524.56 |
| 4 | 0xfd66d7ed45d7962ad009e669cdaec9319e38fb6d | Yes | 0.0369 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$195,182.12 |
| 5 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2826 | 0.9965 | 212,404.57 | +$193,319.41 |
| 6 | 0xffa6b3c90514d7b861c87d7e51cc35fff34530fe | Yes | 0.0700 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$176,095.8 |
| 7 | 0x8039ad26298d7847799899808554474b7fa57421 | Yes | 0.0671 | 0.9965 | 155,118.78 | +$158,598.05 |
| 8 | 0xd9875d4a0573dd3890738aab990938a53c360041 | Yes | 0.1029 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$156,074.13 |
| 9 | 0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010 | Yes | 0.0633 | 0.9965 | 0 | +$148,855.52 |
| 10 | 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9 | Yes | 0.0687 | 0.9965 | 0.01 | +$134,641.29 |