Trade Report :

US forces enter Iran? $99,600 Bet on Polymarket Says No Way

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

JAHODA (0x0e5bd76779e74304d08e759072abf126d87da593) · @JAHODA_J

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$99,600

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.996

Entry Price

2026-04-07 15:45:07 ET

Time

JAHODA placed $99,600 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $149,864,158.744, 24h volume $51,801,887.658, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996

Yes odds at 0.996, market gives 99.6% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.7%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $99,600 becomes $100,000 (profit $400)
If wrong, loses $99,600

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

This whale just bet $99,600 to make $400 on "US forces enter Iran." Call it "yield farming," I call it picking up pennies in front of a nuclear-powered steamroller.

At 99.6% "Yes," smart money isn't just selling; they're already gone. The biggest PnL whales, like that one with $667,374, have zero shares left. They rode the wave from $0.54, not jumped in at the peak.

Our guy is holding max exposure as Pakistan begs for a ceasefire. He's betting on "physical entry," not just B-52s dropping bombs from afar.

Remember the "is a hot dog a sandwich?" debates? This market's "physical entry" rule is 10x more brutal. Standoff missiles don't count!

This isn't trading; it's donating $99,600 to the market gods for a $400 prayer. A catastrophic miscalculation. Bad trade.

Go home, you're not just wrong, you're semantically challenged.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$149,864,158.744

24h Volume

$51,801,887.658

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this condition is not met, specifically excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomatic entries, or accidental entries.

Timeline

The market's deadline is the "listed date" in Eastern Time (ET), by which the entry must occur for a "Yes" resolution. Not specified in the rules.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a general agreement among reliable news reports and information sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly think entry into air or sea territory counts, or that intelligence operatives, contractors, or those entering for diplomatic reasons qualify. It's crucial that the entry is deliberate, by active military, and onto land for operational reasons.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US military Iran

Relevant tweets: 32

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Trump's 8 PM ET ultimatum isn't just a deadline; it's Caesar's Rubicon, with B-52s arriving for the party. BlackRock, the institutional canary, just dumped $260M in Bitcoin, screaming "incoming!" So, "YES" seems obvious, right?

Not so fast, buttercup. Pakistan's diplomatic Hail Mary for a two-week ceasefire is showing "strong progress." An Iranian official whispers talks are "still going on," a stark contrast to the "diplomacy is dead" narrative. Bahrain just pulled the rug on US launchpads.

The real trap? "Enter Iran." Does a standoff missile count, or do you need boots on the ground? The market's emotional surge for "YES" might be a sucker's bet if resolution rules are king. Watch Pakistan's plea – that's the eleventh-hour pivot that could send "YES" shares to Hades. Don't chase the war drums; chase the *resolution*.

KOL — High Relevance (7)

KOL@EricLDaughverified1,023,093 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bombers have taken off from the UK and could reach Iran by Trump's 8 PM deadline.

🚨 JUST IN: US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bombers just TOOK OFF from the United Kingdom, and could reach Iran by the time President Trump's 8PM deadline hits Here we go. Iran should cave NOW. TRUMP IS SERIOUS, FAFO is coming 🔥 https://t.co/2NsFibrX3Y

525,133 views1,535 rt7,586 likesER:0.0374RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@warsurvverified184,621 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US B-52 bombers were spotted taking off from a UK military base and could be within strike range of Iran by 8 PM ET.

🚨🇺🇸 JUST IN: US B-52 bombers spotted taking off from a UK military base If heading toward Iran, with roughly 6 hours of flight time remaining, they could be within strike range by around 8 PM ET tonight https://t.co/3StbL9vksw

36,324 views19 rt189 likesER:0.0031RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GBX_Pressverified111,789 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US bombers have launched from the UK just hours before Trump's Iran deadline.

🚨 BREAKING US bombers launch from UK just hours before Trump’s Iran deadline. https://t.co/gZE0OIhSHh

14,469 views16 rt53 likesER:0.0033RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RealWestern2003verified19,097 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

North Korea has threatened a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv and Washington if the US issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran and escalates.

BREAKING: 🇰🇵 North Korea has threatened to launch a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv and Washington if the US gives Iran a 48-hour ultimatum and opens the "gates of hell" to it. Look who we have to deal with now! As always, it's in your hands! https://t.co/C7zpfro0rW

2,248,220 views6,739 rt24,439 likesER:8.3374RR:117.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PopCraveverified2,950,051 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Donald Trump stated that 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if Iran does not make a deal with the US.

Donald Trump says “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran doesn’t make a deal with the US. https://t.co/mZGb1sjfu0

1,198,587 views566 rt7,907 likesER:0.0065RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TedPillowsverified285,427 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Trump's deadline for Iran is set to end in 6 hours, with the US administration expecting a response before then.

🚨 JUST 6 HOURS LEFT Trump's deadline to Iran will end in 6 hours. The US administration thinks Iran will respond before that deadline. What do you think?

39,721 views20 rt320 likesER:0.0025RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Marchfowardverified373,321 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US President Donald Trump announced preparations for a devastating attack on Iran if Iran does not agree to peace by 8 AM Malaysia time tomorrow.

TERKINI Presiden US Donald Trump mengumumkan US akan mempersiapkan serangan sangat dahsyat ke atas Iran jika Iran tidak mahu berdamai pada Jam 8 Pagi esok waktu Malaysia Jika rundingan dengan Iran ada peluang malam ini. Tarikh itu mungkin berubah Iran dilaporkan sudah mengakhiri perbincangan diplomatik susulan ancaman Presiden Trump

47,206 views155 rt639 likesER:0.0100RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@NoLimitGainsverified1,517,897 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of contact with the US, according to Tehran Times.

🚨 Iran closes all diplomatic and indirect channels of contact with the US, according to Tehran Times

263,169 views260 rt4,571 likesER:0.0064RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@krassensteinverified995,882 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has halted all talks and indirect negotiations with the US following a post threatening genocide.

BREAKING: Because of this post threatening genocide on Iran, Iran has just HALTED ALL talks and indirect negotiations with the US. "The art of the deal" my ass.

74,674 views544 rt2,438 likesER:0.0134RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AshCryptoverified2,143,313 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

An Iranian official states that exchanges of messages with the US via mediators are still ongoing, according to Reuters.

BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian official says exchange of messages with US via mediators are still going on, no details are given, per Reuters Negotiations are still happening so Let’s hope for peace deal before 8PM ET.

35,360 views45 rt554 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DeFiTracerverified376,931 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

BlackRock reportedly began aggressively dumping crypto, including $260M worth of BTC, after a perceived US-Iran deal failure.

🚨 BREAKING BLACKROCK JUST STARTED AGGRESSIVELY DUMPING ALL CRYPTO RIGHT AFTER THE US-IRAN DEAL FAILURE THEY ALREADY SOLD $260M WORTH OF $BTC AND ARE KEEPING DUMPING MORE SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING... https://t.co/qaVpQP9PHa

45,858 views76 rt293 likesER:0.0048RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ZardSiverified42,776 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Pakistan confirms Israel is trying to sabotage its mediation efforts between the US and Iran, with Israeli attacks on Tehran occurring during negotiations.

🚨🇵🇰 BREAKING Pakistan confirms that Israel is trying to sabotage its efforts to mediate between the US and Iran to end the war, stating that Israeli attacks on Tehran occurred just as negotiations were about to be completed. https://t.co/0VALqwbKGX

16,755 views141 rt641 likesER:0.0809RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NoLimitGainsverified1,517,897 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Both the US and Iran have rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

🚨 The US and Iran have both rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

267,918 views280 rt4,485 likesER:0.0066RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@World_Affairs11verified232,178 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Bahrain has stated it will not allow the US to launch strikes against Iran from its territory.

BREAKING: Bahrain says it will not allow the US to strike Iran from its land. https://t.co/JC7abDlHZj

29,815 views420 rt2,777 likesER:0.0481RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ZardSiverified42,776 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iranian media reports that Israel and US strikes have killed over 1,500 people in Iran since the war began.

Israel and US strikes have killed more than 1,500 people in Iran since the war began, according to Iranian media. Indian Army massacred 500+ Christian minorities in the last 24 hours in Manipur, according to Media. The world is SILENT on the Manipur issue! 💔 #AllEyesonManipur https://t.co/bJZHskCm0Z

1,169 views20 rt45 likesER:0.0104RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ggreenwaldverified2,394,652 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The tweet criticizes the argument that war is necessary to open the Strait of Hormuz and keep gas prices low, stating the war caused its closure.

It's utter madness that JD Vance is trying to deceive Americans into believing this war is necessary to open the Strait and keep gas prices low. The Strait was open before the war. The war caused its closure. And US sanctions on Iran choked off that oil from the global supply.

180,732 views2,921 rt10,541 likesER:0.0288RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@tv_ir_Xverified20,235 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian media reports Iran possesses approximately 15,000 ballistic missiles and 45,000 drones.

🚨 BREAKING Iranian Media: Iran has approximately 15,000 ballistic missiles and about 45,000 drones. The US cannot get out of this quagmire... https://t.co/85gXHQGqQf

2,765 views20 rt51 likesER:0.0223RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@mi9940885 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pakistan's Prime Minister requested a two-week ceasefire, which would delay US escalation and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

@BarakRavid Prime Minister of Pakistan makes a plea for a 2 week ceasefire, which would push back US escalation and open the SoH during that period........AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP BEGGED PAKISTAN TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE IRAN WAS GIVING IN BY MAKING A STATEMENT. 😊

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@akunnemeluoba1verified68 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

US bombers are reportedly heading towards Iran, suggesting imminent developments.

US bombers heading towards Iran 🇮🇷, the next few hours will determine what happens next https://t.co/2oJOqmRNj8

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@SethHenrySeth3,268 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pakistan has requested a two-week extension on the US deadline for Iran to end its oil blockade.

@krassenstein BREAKING: Pakistan requests two-week extention on US deadline for Iran to end oil blockade.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@billbarnett65verified8,836 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

Pakistan is likely mediating at Iran's request, proposing a two-week ceasefire.

Pakistan, attempting to insert itself into what's left of the negotiations with Iran, is not a surprise, and odds are very high that's happened at the request of Iran. The proposed two-week ceasefire would not serve the interests of the US and would be put to maximum use by Iran in hiding and securing any remaining enriched uranium they have. Iran has made it clear that they have no interest in no...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@poupkoverified1,418 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Israel is reportedly preparing for Trump's deadline and coordinating new Iran targets with the US for potential escalation.

Report: Israel braces for Trump’s deadline, coordinates new Iran targets with US ahead of potential escalation https://t.co/RKwF6JnFfo via @timesofisrael

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@XtremeRealityverified6,239 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, hours before Trump's deadline.

Russia, China veto UN resolution aimed at reopening Strait of Hormuz, hours before Trump deadline ... Of course, why would China and Russia help the US against their own ally Iran? Their oil shipments are already being allowed through, PLUS Iran is charging the tolls in Chinese currency now to collapse the US petro-dollar. This is exactly what China wants in their economic war against the USA. ...

6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ZardSiverified42,776 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pakistan is reportedly making progress in mediating the Iran-US situation and preventing a possible nuclear attack on Iran as Trump's deadline approaches.

🚨🇵🇰 BREAKING Pakistan is STILL working hard and near to strong progress in the Iran US war situation and in preventing a “possible nuclear attack on Iran” as Trump’s deadline is coming to an end, reports. https://t.co/sgjRMWEw4M

1,028 views8 rt52 likesER:0.0050RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@jochen_mitschka18,271 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The Strait of Hormuz is closed due to the war of aggression by Israel and the US, and will remain closed until the war is over.

The street was open. The war of aggression by Israel and the US closed it, and the UAE was helping to start the war. Now the street of hormuz is closed until the war is over, and over likely over according to the conditions of Iran who has the right to get compensation for the destruction caused by this war of aggression. So finish the aggression soonest to get allowed to pass through the street a...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@oluwoleesther1verified179 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The world would react strongly if the US used nuclear weapons against Iran.

@BRICSinfo The whole world will fold their hand if the US if they use nuclear weapons against Iran.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@BoCarter_USverified1,528 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Iran is playing a dangerous game for leverage, and the US should seek a deal to avoid a prolonged war.

@MarioNawfal Iran is playing a dangerous game to gain leverage before the deadline. We must stay strong but remain open to a deal that secures our allies without dragging us into another 20-year war.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0035	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9965	800,779.93	+$289,815.07
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9965	620,990.26	+$233,992.23
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0035	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9965	130,947.76	+$50,193.19
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9965	175,760.61	+$47,690.45
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9965	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9965	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9965	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9965	0	+$35,796.86