Trade Report :

96.1% Sure: Iran Regime Won't Fall, Per $96,120 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

JAHODA (0x0e5bd76779e74304d08e759072abf126d87da593) · @JAHODA_J

PolyMarket : Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

$96,119.96

Trade Amount

SELL No

Trade Side

0.9611

Entry Price

2026-04-07 17:28:59 ET

Time

JAHODA placed $96,119.96 SELL No on Polymarket, betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?" at odds 0.9611 (market gives 96.1% probability). Total market volume $23,430,282.612, 24h volume $1,430,665.213, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: No at 0.9611

No odds at 0.9611, market gives 96.1% chance

96.3%

Yes

3.8%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $96,119.96 becomes $100,009.96 (profit $3,890)
If wrong, loses $96,120

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just dumped $96,120 into "No" on Iran, betting the regime survives until 2026 for a measly $3,890 profit. Talk about picking up pennies in front of a geopolitical steamroller.

This isn't some hot take; it's a cold, calculated fade of Twitter's war drums. While retail panics over IDF bridges and Trump ultimatums, this trader is buying the structural reality. They're absorbing 6.72% of daily volume, anchoring the market like a concrete block.

The "Yes" whales? They already rode the volatility spike, took their $113,521 PnL, and sprinted for the exits. Our whale is chilling with the "No" OGs, who know "regime collapse" resolution rules are tighter than a drum.

The catch? If held to expiry, that $96k yields a pathetic 2.6% annualized. Less than T-bills. Unless this is a quick flip, a play to profit as the headlines fade, it's a masterclass in capital inefficiency.

Still, risking a fortune for a sliver of profit on a 96.1% bet? That's either balls of steel or a profound understanding of geopolitical inertia. Average to good, but only if they exit before 2026. Otherwise, it's just slow-motion financial masochism.

Market Context: Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Market Page →

Total Volume

$23,430,282.612

24h Volume

$1,430,665.213

Heat

Hot

End Date

2026-04-30

Created

2026-03-05

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or stops governing by April 30, 2026, meaning its core structures are dissolved or replaced by a fundamentally different system. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No', specifically excluding routine political events, internal power shifts that preserve the regime, or partial loss of territory.

Timeline

The market's deadline for the regime change to occur is April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a broad agreement from credible news reports and sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be thinking that any significant political unrest or reform qualifies, but the rules clearly state it must be a complete break in the regime's continuity, not just internal changes or challenges that don't remove its core power.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Iran regime, Iran collapse, Iran revolution

Relevant tweets: 37

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Whales are going full YOLO on "Yes" for Iran by April 30, with Polymarket odds doubling. Trump's 8 PM ultimatum hit. IDF's playing infrastructure Jenga, taking out 8 critical bridges. Even North Korea and UAE are ghosting Tehran. Pahlavi wants the military to flip sides.

But pump the brakes, buttercup. The regime’s using children as human shields at Rajai Power. Russia and China just gave them a UN veto-sized hug. And remember the "rally 'round the flag" effect? External strikes often unite, not divide.

This isn't a simple "Game Over" screen. "Regime fall" is a slippery definition. Buy "Yes" on dips if you must, but the final 20-30% of regime change is a graveyard of hopium. Take profits on spikes. Don't be left holding the bag if it's just martial law.

KOL — High Relevance (7)

KOL@zerohedgeverified2,629,664 flwQ:5/5analysisbullish

Polymarket odds for Iran regime change by April 30 doubled in the past 24 hours, and odds for Dec 31 rose to 60% from 40% in hours.

Did someone get the shoulder tap? Polymarket odds of Iran regime change jumped in past 24 hours, doubling for April 30, and rising to 60% from 40% for Dec 31 in hours.

180,406 views133 rt1,026 likesER:0.0014RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ShaykhSulaiman836,095 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Reza Pahlavi has called for Iran's armed forces to overthrow the Iranian regime.

BREAKING: REZA PAHLAVI CALLS FOR IRAN'S ARMED FORCES TO OVERTHROW THE IRANIAN REGIME https://t.co/KPxftDM4nO

90,402 views94 rt560 likesER:0.0029RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TheGrayzoneNewsverified439,771 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

The BBC's Ghoncheh Azad, who published a quote demanding Iran be nuked, has been revealed as a dedicated regime change activist.

The BBC's @GhonchehAzad drew outrage for publishing a quote demanding Iran be nuked, then quietly removed it She’s since been revealed as a dedicated regime change activist whose career was launched by a CIA-founded propaganda network By @wyattreed13 https://t.co/YN0macjPJD

463,618 views5,917 rt15,262 likesER:0.3038RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Kawapes9112 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet states Iran was a Muslim country before the current regime and questions the sentiment of rejoicing at deaths, implying a complex view of the regime's impact.

@hiitsmemooneh @IRanMediaco Iran was a Muslim country for thousands of years before the new regime. You rejoiced at the death of 10s of thousands of kids and women in gaza so even after the regime change, they still wouldn’t want you. Go back to making another tik tok in a 3 inch skirt you whore

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:6.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,809,425 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The tweet frames ongoing events as 'Night number 38 of Trump's regime change FAILURE in Iran,' suggesting the regime has not fallen.

❤️🇮🇷 WATCH: Night number 38 of Trump's regime change FAILURE in Iran https://t.co/QPQDjNjGtV

112,377 views1,004 rt6,812 likesER:0.0071RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@gghamariverified248,627 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The tweet describes life under the Islamic Regime in Iran for 47 years and supports President Trump's intention to destroy the regime.

This is what life has been like in occupied Iran under the terrorist Islamic Regime for the last 47 years. So spare me your "outrage" over President Trump saying he will destroy the Islamic Regime. I pray Trump ends them tonight. Free Iran. https://t.co/y7CqeNWRoV

182,325 views2,946 rt11,180 likesER:0.2819RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NazaninBoniadiverified608,643 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The tweet states the Iranian regime prides itself on martyrdom for its corrupt theocracy and suggests it should relinquish power for the Iranian people.

This regime prides itself in martyrdom—not for Iran, but for their corrupt, intolerant theocracy. If they cared about Iran they would relinquish power, and allow the Iranian people a representative, accountable government that would normalize relations with the world.

13,019 views70 rt295 likesER:0.0028RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@realMaaloufverified441,045 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The Islamic Regime in Iran is reportedly forcing children to form human chains around bridges and power plants to deter President Trump's strikes.

HORRIFYING: The Islamic Regime in Iran is forcing children to form human chains around bridges and power plants in an attempt to dissuade President Trump’s strikes at 8PM. The regime is using its own people as human shields. Absolutely evil. https://t.co/5QonlD7Ffk

47,081 views1,035 rt2,599 likesER:0.0528RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,809,425 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Trump gave the Iranian regime until 8 pm Washington time to conclude an agreement, but Iran has formally cut off indirect talks and rejected all US proposals.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP: "The Iranian regime has until 8 pm Washington time to seize the moment and conclude an agreement" Iran has already formally cut off all indirect talks with the U.S. & REJECTED all U.S. demands https://t.co/lfrynXou1U

96,827 views450 rt2,390 likesER:0.0030RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FoxNewsverified28,706,357 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of conducting terrorist activity against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledging its worldwide impact.

'IT'S A BIG PROBLEM': Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of "conducting terrorist activity against commercial vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz and acknowledged the worldwide impact of the strait's closure. "This is a regime that doesn't believe in laws, rules or anything like that."

112,924 views180 rt958 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TruthTrumpPostverified314,636 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The Israeli military claims to have struck eight bridge sections across Iran, targeting key rail and road links used by regime forces to move weapons.

JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇮🇷 The Israeli military says it struck eight bridge sections across Iran, targeting key rail and road links used by regime forces to move weapons. https://t.co/zpRuqVxUA5

24,292 views44 rt196 likesER:0.0034RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osint613verified1,295,139 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Rajai Power Station, one of Iran’s largest, saw no public response to the regime’s call for a human chain, with staff reportedly forced to gather.

Iran Reports: Rajai Power Station, one of Iran’s largest, saw no public response to the regime’s call for a human chain; staff were forced to gather at the gate. https://t.co/m6uGPT1hpO

240,586 views869 rt4,022 likesER:0.0165RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osint613verified1,295,139 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The IDF struck eight bridge sections across Iran, including Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz, Kashen, and Kam, to halt transfers of weapons and military gear by regime forces.

The IDF struck eight bridge sections across Iran, including Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz, Kashen, and Kam, used by regime forces to move weapons and military gear. The strikes aimed to halt transfers supporting terrorism, with precautions taken to minimize civilian harm. https://t.co/dcuj5rKO8Z

70,253 views159 rt1,112 likesER:0.0033RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osint613verified1,295,139 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Pro-regime demonstrations erupted in Iran just hours before an ultimatum expired.

Pro-regime demonstrations erupt in Iran just hours before the ultimatum expires. https://t.co/HYrTduEAye

117,915 views135 rt980 likesER:0.0028RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osint613verified1,295,139 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The Israeli army claims to have bombed eight bridge sections across Iran, targeting rail and road links used by regime forces to move weapons and equipment.

The Israeli army says it bombed eight bridge sections across Iran, targeting rail and road links used by regime forces to move weapons and equipment. https://t.co/Jg3qkVbp1i

78,831 views113 rt909 likesER:0.0024RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@EYakobyverified289,356 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The UAE cut ties with Iran and aligned with the U.S., and North Korea is reportedly moving away from the Iranian regime.

The UAE literally cut ties with Iran and publicly stated their intention to more closely align with the U.S. Even North Korea said they’re moving away from the Iranian regime. The New York Times is trash. https://t.co/QiX4AL9yxJ

91,093 views660 rt4,555 likesER:0.0614RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@dannydanonverified122,675 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating international support for the regime.

Russia and China vetoed a resolution proposed by Bahrain and the Gulf states at the UN Security Council condemning Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Iranian regime’s actions constituted a threat to international peace and security. Even if the resolution did not pass, the broad majority of nations in favor of this resolution reflect the commitment of most countries in the world...

38,953 views126 rt675 likesER:0.0260RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (6)

RETAIL@BruceDankmyerverified7,539 flwQ:3/5firsthandbullish

Several Iranians have stated that the current leadership must be defeated, indicating internal desire for regime change.

@100_Proff @Patrickkerby58 @joekent16jan19 I've talked with several Iranians, and they say the current leadership must be defeated. Some still have family in Iran. They don't want the infrastructure destroyed, but they want a complete regime change.

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MidnightVision5714 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called for Iran's armed forces to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi calls for Iran's armed forces to overthrow the Iranian regime. Iran war, IRGC, https://t.co/eM5OFWAqjm

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RENDER__DADDYverified3,045 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The Iranian regime needs to make a deal to survive, suggesting they will not fall.

@All_Things_Mad The deal has to be open the strait and no nuclear weapons. Iran regime will be smart to make a deal because they need their regime to survive.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@HowASealSleeps163 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The tweet suggests a historical figure wanted to take down the Iranian regime, implying a potential for its fall.

@aarondmiller2 They knew him well. He wanted to be historical figure that took this regime down that “no other had low hanging balls to do“ They appealed to this side prlly fed that had intel showing reg would fall Lebanon was their end game-Iran secondary so needed Washington majority on that

15 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ColoredCOGverified10 flwQ:1/5emotionbullish

In my courtyard, listening to the rush of air whipping through the palm fronds. Praying for the Iranian people. Praying for the end of an oppressive, evil regime of delusional, wicked or maybe just, stupid men. Praying in gratitude to the women martyrs of Iran who stood up for human dignity and truth and then were slaughtered in the 10s of thousands while their men cowered. Praying that every coun...

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Jennife69751005224 flwQ:1/5emotionbullish

Thank you, yes these regime leaders and terrorists, destroy them now!! Save the people of Iran now!!!

29 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0045RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@ManFromDeImonte170 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet criticizes the US-backed Zionists while acknowledging the Iranian regime's actions, offering a balanced but critical view.

@gracebrod1e No one is "rooting for Iran". Yes the regime does hideous things, buy you seem blinded to what the US backed Zionists do. Every day "settlers" backed by the IDF go to Palestinian houses in the West bank, shoot the family (including the children) and steal the house. >>2

6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ironted21958 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet clarifies that a previous discussion was about the regime's targets and war-waging ability, not innocent civilians.

@benjamincowen He’s talking about the targets of the regime and their ability to wage war. He’s not talking about the great innocent civilians of Iran.

13 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Obstreperous___686 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet clarifies that opposing Trump and Netanyahu's actions is not equivalent to supporting the Iranian regime.

This shouldn't need to be explained but given that trump fanboys in UK and US have the reasoning skills of a toddler: Opposing trump and netanyahu crimes is not the same as supporting the Iranian regime None of you could point to Iran on a map if your life depended on it

13 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JackDunc139,699 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The majority who opposed the Iranian regime were finding their feet but are now either under rubble or rallying back around the regime due to recent events.

One of the most insane parts of all of this is that there the majority who oppose the regime in Iran were finding their feet before all this. Now they are either under rubble or rallying back around the flag. Trump has destroyed the resistance movement he wanted to rally.

15 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ggridjumpverified136 flwQ:1/5emotionbullish

A voice from Iran 🇮🇷♥️ Share their stories , his wife was brutally murdered on Jan 8th by terrorist regime of Iran : Saleheh Akbari (she was operating room technician and mountaineer) Her husband posted a photo of his wife’s grave and wrote: “The foundation and everything that made me who I am is right here. Just don’t hit this spot. This point is a matter of life and death for me. I hope that...

10 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Eileen9690047624 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

@ericswalwell Sad. You were quiet about Biden’s incompetence. You were silent about the war in Ukraine war. You were quiet about all the murders and crimes by illegals. Quiet re: 45k killed by the Iran regime? Go away, coward.

19 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Hormizan11 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

@SenateGOP Iranian people are the first victims of the Islamic regime in Iran. In the war between the US, Israel and the regime, the civilian population should be protected. #NowarCrimeslnİran #DigitalBlackOutIran‌ #SpareIranPowerPlants

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@OfficialChymso161 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

@antonioguterres You are such an idiot. What did you say when the Islamic regime in Iran killed 45,000 of its own people?

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MikeClarkeSnrverified5,298 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

@Keir_Starmer @RoyalFamily @KemiBadenoch @EdwardJDavey @Nigel_Farage @RupertLowe10 @GBNEWS @BBCNews @itvnews How can the politicians of this country sleep at night while a Terrorist Regime in Iran uses women and children as human shields? It clearly exposes how corrupt and weak this government truly is. The Islamic regime are barbaric terrorists and should be proscribed without delay. For ...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@lotos80fverified186 flwQ:1/5emotionbearish

🔴🔴 What you are doing is effectively buying time for a terrorist regime—driven by your own interests. Time for more missiles, more repression, and deeper destruction of a nation. This is not peace—this is indirect cooperation with an oppressive system. The people of Iran do not want this. If you cannot stand with them, at the very least, do not stand in their way. You support Terrorist. @POTUS4...

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 5 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 694,449.17 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	Yes	0.0499	0.0375	0	+$113,520.65
2	0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784	No	0.8645	0.9625	694,449.17	+$68,035.88
3	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	Yes	0.0330	0.0375	0	+$57,555.76
4	0xce71bed9dd1418abc34d244730879d795e8683bc	No	0.8618	0.9625	267,895.51	+$26,967.17
5	0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e	No	0.8709	0.9625	251,035.93	+$22,971.29
6	0x63d43bbb87f85af03b8f2f9e2fad7b54334fa2f1	No	0.8927	0.9625	325,220.35	+$22,683.47
7	0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825	Yes	0.0330	0.0375	0	+$21,442.25
8	0xefb92699291627fbc395550648815b1241c3e74f	Yes	0.1309	0.0375	0	+$16,793.13
9	0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b	No	0.9228	0.9625	404,862.19	+$16,068.58
10	0x43372356634781eea88d61bbdd7824cdce958882	Yes	0.1100	0.0375	450.31	+$14,402.51