Trade Report :

Why Someone Wagered $99,600 That US Forces Enter Iran Soon

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

tsybka (0xd5ccdf772f795547e299de57f47966e24de8dea4) · @tsybka

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$99,600

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.996

Entry Price

2026-04-07 13:26:11 ET

Time

tsybka placed $99,600 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $142,561,615.129, 24h volume $51,851,326.291, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996

Yes odds at 0.996, market gives 99.6% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.6%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $99,600 becomes $100,000 (profit $400)
If wrong, loses $99,600

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Some whale just parked $99,600 on "US forces enter Iran" at 99.6%, hoping to net a princely $400. This isn't trading; it's a fixed-income fantasy, risking $99,600 for a 0.4% return. The ultimate "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" move.

The *real* smart money? They bought Yes at $0.54-$0.78, now sitting pretty. This trader is buying *their* exit liquidity at the absolute peak.

He's betting on "active US military personnel physically enter Iran." But what if a pilot ejects? What if classified ops stay classified? He's relying on a decentralized oracle's semantic interpretation of a black ops mission.

Risking nearly $100K for a $400 payout? Sir, this isn't a prediction market; it's a donation. You're not just picking up pennies; you're volunteering to be the steamroller's speed bump. A truly spectacular way to turn a whale into chum.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$142,561,615.129

24h Volume

$51,851,326.291

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves "No", excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomatic personnel, or accidental entry.

Timeline

The event must occur by the listed date, specified in Eastern Time (ET), for the market to resolve "Yes".

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of information from credible news and reporting sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly think any US military presence, including air, sea, or non-deliberate entry, counts, or that contractors and diplomatic personnel are included.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US forces Iran

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Trump's Tuesday 8 PM ET deadline on Iran dropped like a nuclear-armed Caesar. "A whole civilization will die tonight," he declared. Whales are piling into "Yes" shares, smelling blood in the water. But pump the brakes, market tourists. The White House is already denying nukes – a classic bait-and-switch. General Caine's "every Iranian had a small gun" is the ground truth, not some Hollywood script.

Iran's allies are threatening Bab al-Mandab. North Korea's even lobbing nuclear threats at Tel Aviv and DC. This isn't just a staredown; it's a geopolitical game of Twister. The biggest trap? "Entering" Iran. Does a pilot ejection count? An airstrike on a Zanjan bridge? Or are we talking boots-on-the-ground D-Day? Before you go full Leroy Jenkins, read the fine print. Hedge your bets before 8 PM ET. Otherwise, you're buying into the biggest "pump and dump" of the year.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified493,529 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

US General Caine stated that "Every Iranian who had a small gun was shooting at us," indicating that Iranian people view the US as invaders.

US General Caine: "Every Iranian who had a small gun was shooting at us." This right here tells you the Iranian people don’t view the US as “liberators.” They view the US as invaders which is why they’re all shooting at the US aircraft that are invading & bombing their country. https://t.co/iIBS0QsUkn

263,288 views920 rt4,386 likesER:0.0462RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SkyNewsverified8,741,882 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Donald Trump issued a statement on Truth Social, "A whole civilization will die tonight," seemingly referring to his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"A whole civilization will die tonight" Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social, seemingly referring to his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He adds "maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?". https://t.co/USH18TtBJS https://t.co/aBmVsfla40

645,486 views356 rt1,440 likesER:0.0010RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PopCraveverified2,948,308 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Donald Trump stated that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" if Iran does not make a deal with the US.

Donald Trump says “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran doesn’t make a deal with the US. https://t.co/mZGb1sjfu0

1,075,775 views539 rt7,547 likesER:0.0062RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,303,227 flwQ:5/5analysisbearish

Initial intelligence claims of 80% or 50% destruction of Iran's missile launchers and "most" missiles eliminated have been contradicted by the IDF, which now admits Iran can continue firing as long as the war continues.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Inteligence told us 80% of Iran's missile launchers were destroyed. Then it became 50%. Then "most" missiles were eliminated. Now the IDF admits Iran can keep firing as long as the war continues. Turns out the launchers are underground and largely intact. Something Israeli intelligence apparently discovered after announcing they weren't. 38 days of briefings and every number was wro...

146,433 views160 rt813 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified493,529 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The Guardian reports increasing fears within Trump’s advisory circle that the President may consider ordering a nuclear strike on Iran.

BREAKING: ‘There are increasing fears within Trump’s current and former advisory circle that the President may consider ordering a nuclear strike on Iran’ – The Guardian The US is so defeated and humiliated that it’s gonna use Nuclear weapons to regain the lost hegemony lol 😂 https://t.co/NW3O25kwZX

299,318 views492 rt2,002 likesER:0.0240RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TruthTrumpPostverified305,514 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A railway bridge near Amin Abad in Zanjan, Iran, was struck in a US-Israeli attack, and President Trump has set a deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM ET for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

WATCH: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 In Zanjan, Iran, a railway bridge near Amin Abad was struck in a US ‑ Israeli attack. President Donald Trump has set a deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM ET for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/3Cw5faJVdc

91,155 views33 rt274 likesER:0.0031RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RealWestern2003verified18,437 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

North Korea has threatened a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv and Washington if the US issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran and initiates severe military action.

BREAKING: 🇰🇵 North Korea has threatened to launch a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv and Washington if the US gives Iran a 48-hour ultimatum and opens the "gates of hell" to it. Look who we have to deal with now! As always, it's in your hands! https://t.co/C7zpfro0rW

1,515,825 views4,874 rt17,167 likesER:6.2183RR:82.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osint613verified1,293,250 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The New York Times reports that the US and Israel are increasing attacks on Iran to force open the Strait of Hormuz and push for a ceasefire.

New York Times: The US and Israel are ramping up attacks on Iran to force the Strait of Hormuz open and push toward a ceasefire.

53,372 views46 rt573 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,303,227 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

The White House has denied US plans to use nuclear weapons in Iran, according to AFP.

🚨BREAKING: White House Denies US Plans to Use Nuclear Weapons in Iran The fact they even need to make such a statement tells you a lot about the state of affairs atm Source: AFP

76,560 views78 rt433 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified493,529 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran claims that a US pilot extraction operation was a cover to steal uranium.

BREAKING: Iran says US pilot extraction operation was cover to steal uranium. https://t.co/shb0DXaHxg

64,210 views299 rt2,351 likesER:0.0169RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (8)

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,652,442 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan amidst intensifying US-Israeli attacks and a looming deadline from Trump for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan to end the war as US-Israeli attacks intensify and a deadline looms that was set by President Donald Trump for Tehran to open Hormuz Strait. Here's what you need to know about the 10-point plan and Trump’s response https://t.co/6GPCONiJ0d https://t.co/u2EaxwR2Sq

0 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NoLimitGainsverified1,518,246 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of contact with the US, according to Tehran Times.

🚨 Iran closes all diplomatic and indirect channels of contact with the US, according to Tehran Times

225,743 views240 rt4,099 likesER:0.0059RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MojtabaKhamenverified93,079 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has announced that its allies will immediately close the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Red Sea if the US bombs their infrastructure.

Breaking :-🚨🇮🇷🇾🇪🇺🇸 Iran has announced that its allies will immediately close the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Red Sea if the US bombs their infrastructure https://t.co/BFNcgmfQoB

4,276 views19 rt151 likesER:0.0057RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NoLimitGainsverified1,518,246 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Both the US and Iran have rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

🚨 The US and Iran have both rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

252,621 views277 rt4,268 likesER:0.0065RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@maddenificoverified384,808 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran maintains complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, granting safe passage to some nations' ships while refusing passage to those linked to the US and Israel.

Iran remains in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Malaysian, Japanese, and French ships safe passage, while refusing ships linked to the US and Israel. 😳👇 https://t.co/E8y5iA9bmA

7,933 views117 rt412 likesER:0.0072RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Amockx2022verified94,707 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Trump hinted at possible nuclear weapon usage against Iran to finish Iranian civilization.

BREAKING : Canada 🇨🇦 PM Mark Carney gave belt treatment to Trump 🇺🇸 Trump at 9:00 AM –– Hinted at possible Nuclear weapon usage against Iran to finish Iranians civilization 🇨🇦 Carney at 9:15 AM –– 🔥 "The US dare not target any civilians or infrastructure in Iran. International law must be respected at cost" 🔥

864,483 views2,023 rt10,028 likesER:0.5331RR:9.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@cryptoroververified1,558,526 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has cut diplomatic channels with the US and is threatening disruption around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, putting a second major global trade chokepoint at risk.

💥BREAKING: Iran cuts diplomatic channels with the US and threatens disruption around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. A second major global trade chokepoint is now at risk. https://t.co/FfFWpr2Qs0

42,687 views39 rt346 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,530,070 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

Iran does not have operational nuclear weapons, and its missile arsenal is reportedly down to approximately 10% due to US/Israeli strikes on facilities.

@izag_14 No, Iran doesn't have operational nuclear weapons to use. Their program was set back hard by US/Israeli strikes on facilities like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—missile arsenal is down to ~10%, per reports. Trump's "tonight" event looks like more conventional pressure for regime concessions, not a nuclear exchange. Experts across sources (CNN, NPR, Arms Control) agree: pursuit might acceler...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (3)

RETAIL@ruudweddingnl11 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The author argues that Netanyahu, not Trump, started the war with Iran.

#IranWar‌ It's not "#US-#Israel war" as this suggest that it is "#Trump's war." It's not. #Netanyahu started the war despite that Trump declared war on #Iran. Netanyahu can't declare war twice as there is still a declaration, which is not lifted since June 5, 1967. https://t.co/CyrRNgPLGf

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@BuzzzStrykerverified4,706 flwQ:3/5analysisbullish

The author believes US forces are perceived as 'superhuman' by China and Russia, having achieved significant military feats.

@DeruyterStan @Mokele_mbembe @ProfTalmadge Let's be honest: China and Russia are watching Iran and thinking that US Forces are superhuman. Absolutely no one thought we could do in excess of 10000 strikes with virtually no loss of air assets.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@me_cool_offverified1,386 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

The author saw news about an American pilot ejecting.

@Atenov_D @pizzintwatch @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @florababess @sihnazarov1 @tyliebets @dvictor11 @GRINDOR_ATOM @ARockyRock @intern52 @T3errell yeah, I saw the news that an american pilot ejected in iran and hid in the mountains for 2 days can that be considered that us troops entered iran xD

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@MarketNews_Feedverified5,286 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran has told mediators it possesses a huge arsenal of approximately 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones and believes it is winning, though mediators suspect these numbers are exaggerated, according to WSJ.

IRAN TELLS MEDIATORS IT HAS HUGE ARSENAL (~15K MISSILES, 45K DRONES) & BELIEVES IT'S WINNING; NOT BACKING DOWN AS US-ISRAELI STRIKES CONTINUE; MEDIATORS SUSPECT NUMBERS EXAGGERATED - WSJ ...

7 views1 rt0 likesER:0.0038RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ConflictMatrix40 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has reportedly withdrawn from peace talks and ceasefire negotiations with the United States, according to the NYT.

The Islamic regime in Iran has reportedly withdrawn from peace talks with the United States and will no longer participate in ceasefire negotiations, according to NYT. #Iran #US #MiddleEast #BreakingNews https://t.co/L4s2KRRWDy

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@brijshyam8verified9,930 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Trump hinted at possible nuclear weapon usage against Iran to finish Iranian civilization.

📍BREAKING : Canada 🇨🇦 PM Mark Carney gave belt treatment to Trump 🇺🇸 Trump at 9:00 AM –– Hinted at possible Nuclear weapon usage against Iran to finish Iranians civilization 🇨🇦 Carney at 9:15 AM –– 🔥 "The US dare not target any civilians or infrastructure in Iran. International law must be respected at cost" 🔥

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@NecroEmpire91 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

An Iraqi armed group, fighting against the US and Israel in support of Iran, has accused a journalist of espionage for US intelligence.

#Iran #IranWar #US #Israël Le groupe armé irakien qui est en guerre contre les US et Israël en soutien à l'Iran, accuse la journaliste "d'espionnage" au service du renseignement américain.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MiningSCverified729 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The author states that Iran has been attacking US military bases in the Middle East directly or via proxies for decades.

@Jon_173d @tommypickles676 @USVeteranMitch @LeadingReport Iran has been attacking US military bases in the middle east directly or through proxies which is legally equivalent for decades. That is a direct attack on the US. He has 90 days...Cry about it Jihadi Jon.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@huewe0079 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

@RealAlexJones Do you not understand that Hillary and the Democrats projecting weakness invites others to push us into conflict on our enemies terms. Where as Trump projecting power before Iran position astride the Hormuz Straits becomes unassailable is the most prudent action.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@_drrogal10 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author speculates that the US is secretly providing weapons to the Iranian people.

IRANIAN PEOPLE HAVE NO WEAPONS PREVENTING AN ALL OUT REBELLION, I SEE THE US SECRETLY ARE PROVIDING WEAPONS TO IRANIAN PEOPLE. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID WE DON’T NEED A DEAL WITH IRAN. IF THE US SAW THEY HAD GO BACK INTO IRAN- - - THE US WOULD HAVE AN ALLY, THE IRANIAN PEOPLE.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@LianaNew62verified2,269 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author believes Trump is taking action against Iran, unlike previous presidents who only made threats.

@GenXUnderground I'm not disagreeing. I think we ... the US has talked a big game about Iran. Constant threats and we knew what Iran is/was capable of. Instead of talking, Trump is doing what other Presidents threatened to do. And I thank you for your service 🙏

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@BBCross_Farmverified894 flwQ:1/5opinionbullish

@ConceptualJames Yes. This is correct. If the people will just hang in for a bit longer… once the stranglehold Iran had on the world is eliminated and the elites across the globe can no longer pay them to terrorize us and force us to pay for it… everything changes. Overnight. And for any coward that thinks Iran wasn’t a threat. Trump took Maduro for a reason. And Maduro sold them all out. Trump ...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@rockiesvigil37 flwQ:1/5opinionbearish

@realJoelFischer You missed the part where Iran has not dropped a single bomb on the US and we are threatening to essentially nuke them. Yeah I don't think they're the bad guys

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0045	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9955	800,779.93	+$289,014.29
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9955	620,990.26	+$233,371.24
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0045	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9955	130,947.76	+$50,062.24
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9955	175,760.61	+$47,514.68
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9955	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9955	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9955	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9955	0	+$35,796.86